I dropped one huge clanger today. I had a message from a good friend in the Emerald isle and he told me to back New Story in the Cross Country race. That was last night and I forgot all about it
He sent me a text when it won....doh!!1:30 Cheltenham
This is one of my least favoured races over the four days, I'm not a fan of amateur riders but I do concede that it is all part of the spirit of Cheltenham so rather than crab it I'll just enjoy it. If I happen to make a few quid then I'll take it as a real bonus
Three horses stand out to me based on form, potential and price. Fabalu strikes me as the sort of horse that needs a stamina test and he'll certainly get that in this race
He ran a decent prep race at Bangor last time and his jumping was much better.Mobaasher always does well at Cheltenham and I always believe that form at the track counts for a lot. This horse has a touch of class but his jumping has always been a bit fragile. He seems a bit soft or timid at his fences and that always seemed to hold him back. However, this is a 4 mile race and it should allow him to settle and get his confidence going. If he runs to his potential then he will go very close in this race...actually he would run away with it but not let's get carried away!
Pettifour was a decent hurdler and is closely matched with Mobaasher. He has run against some class horses like Punchestowns, Big Bucks, fair Along and he was not disgraced in that company. He is another horse who seems a bit timid at his fences and I feel that he may also benefit from the slower pace over this 4 miles.
They are all double figure prices between 14 and 19 so a small Dutch on those will get you a decent run for your money. I tend to get my money down or trade them then I go to the one click screen and get ready to grab a nice profit if they take a hand in the finish.
14:05 Cheltenham
Rite of Passage looks extremely smart, different class to most of his rivals. I don't know if he's been a bit fragile or is hard to train but this could be a star of the future. A lot of the media pundits are crabbing his form but he's hardly come off the bridle to win his two hurdle starts so we don't know too much about him. I respect his trainer who has placed him well and speaks very highly of him. He trotted up in the November Handicap on the level and has won with his head in his chest in most of his races. This could be a superstar in the making and if he puts his best foot forward I can see him winning well. I think they'll settle him mid division and then send him after the leaders 3 out. If this goes as planned I don't think they'll see which way he went
Famous last words!!! I cannot fancy Quel Esprit anymore although I do have an ante-post voucher on this horse. Finians Rainbow got stuck in the mud last time out and he's probably the best of the rest.I've backed Rite of Passage ante post too so I will hedge some off and try to trade up some more profits if possible. Can you tell I like this horse
Cheltenham 2:40
It's time for a rant now...only a mild one! Long Run is one fast animal and the way he won over 3 miles in the Grade 1 Feltham chase was impressive. He slaughtered the field and Ogee was beaten out of sight. That horse ran okay at Cheltenham earlier today and whilst they are a class apart it demonstrates the potential of this horse. He then ran over 2 miles at Warwick and despite looking clumsy at some of his fences he hosed up by 12 lengths. That was clearly a chance for Nicky Henderson to get a good run into him as a prep. Okay so now the rant. I cannot believe that Sam Waley-Cohen is riding this horse
Okay so his Dad owns it so we know why but come on this is Cheltenham!!! I know he has won some good races but A P McCoy he aint!!! When I see him riding he reminds me of a man trying to erect a deck chair with things going all over the place as he tried to get the right method! They could still win so I will try and trade some profit on it. I would be having a much larger bet if Barry Geraghty was riding.Punchestowns is also clearly a smart horse and he's also from the same stable. He won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles race in a quick time and despite making a couple of errors (one serious that cost him many lengths) he caught Tchico Polos with ease and won by some distance. I was wincing when I saw the race because I had backed him for this race at Cheltenham and that was a tough race that took some winning. He strikes me as the type of horse that goes well fresh so I winced again when Nicky Henderson reported him lame
It was similar in time to Binocular's injury so let's hope he comes back as well as that horse did!!Cheltenham 3:20
Some controversy - Master Minded will not win. There I've said it
I think we've seen the best of this horse and only one horse has managed to win 3 Champion Chases and that is Badsworth Boy. I know he had a broken rib when he last ran at Cheltenham but I'm still not convinced he is the horse he was. I am happy for him to win I just don't see any value in his price based on current form. Yes, the last run at Newbury looked impressive but he didn't really beat much and he got things his own way!I think the time has come for Big Zeb to show his true potential. I have watched his last run at Punchestown and he won with ease from Golden Silver rated 159 who also contest this race. He flew his fences that day and apart from one small mistake he looked foot perfect. I believe connections have tried to do too much with him in the past and thankfully my prayers have been answered because he's not had a run since the victory at Punchestown on 31/01/10. I am sure he will come here fresh and well and ready to run the race of his life. I know he has his frailties with his jumping but he's fresh, I think they've found the key and all of the problems are factored into his price which is a massive 12 on Betfair
The Irish may finish 1-2 because Forpadydeplasterer is another smart horse who finally has a chance to show his true colours. This horse must have good ground to show his best and today's times show it will be good ground on Wednesday. He ran well on soft ground but his trainer has been very vocal about the need for something other than soft/heavy ground. He has still put up some respectable performances on unsuitable ground and now the ground has come right, the horse is fit and well so this could be a good race. We mustn't forget that this horse won the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham beating another rival Kalahari King on the right ground so that form augurs well.
4:00 Cheltenham
Sir Harry Ormesher was winning me a lot of money in a race at Doncaster. I had backed him at huge prices in that race and had greened up for over £2K he was cantering all over the other horse when the race was voided - I nearly puked!! Anyway he came out next time and won at 8/1 so I was happier. He should go close in this race but this is more like the lottery so I won't be going overboard!
4:40 Probably the worst race of the meeting - PASS!!!
5:15 Cheltenham
I really like Shot from the Hip in this race. I rarely bet in Bumpers but this horse looks smart. He's from a very smart German colt and by a mare that is related to Alleged. That suggests he needs decent ground to be seen at his best but despite that he has hosed in on awful ground with the minimum of effort. This horse has a high cursing speed and real acceleration and I can see him winning this well. You have to respect Drumbaloo and Day of a Lifetime because they could both be open to plenty of improvement. I think Shot from the Hip could attract real support tomorrow and may be sent off around 6/1 favourite, possibly lower if the Irish pile in!
Good luck to all!
