14:30 Southwell - another puzzle

[JollyGreen]

I looked at this race because of the favourite Gizzit. This is the type of horse I like to oppose.

This horse won LTO (last time out) but it was nothing impressive and came on the back of a lot of runs without success! That win has seen his handicap mark rise from 86 to 94 and the previous winning high mark was 92 back in February 2013.

Can there be any positives? Well the only straw we can clutch is perhaps the horse has had an issue and they've finally got to to the bottom of it. That's a large straw to clutch and I could see it snapping too easily!

There is one element of his past form which definitely puts me off and that is DSLR (days since last run). Horses are very much creatures of habit and they generally behave in certain ways and conform to certain patterns. They are no different to people in a way, I will try and explain. How many people do you know who seem able to perform exercise with no issues when or how hard they do it? How well do you perform when you try and exercise? Some will recover quickly and train again almost immediately whereas others need plenty of rest. Horses are pretty much the same but you would be amazed at how many people totally disregard this aspect of training and this includes top trainers! I won't mention any names but trust me I am talking about top trainers!

If we look at DSLR for Gizzit, the numbers do not look good. He has run 16 times within 28 days of his last run and has lost each time! He did manage to place three times when he ran within 7 days but one of those came when he won off 92 and ran within 7 days in order to escape a rise in the weights. He went off 6/4 favourite and finished 3rd! When I see these numbers it becomes clear to me he needs a break before he races again if he is to perform at his best.

The first small positive I can find is the switch to chases from hurdles but it is a small one! The second small positive is the change of trainer, perhaps Seamus Mullins has found the key? He's tried this route before and whilst at 8yo there is a chance he has improved I cannot see any value in his price of 4.0-4.3 and would want a minimum of 5.5 before I even consider an interest.

I will not be the only person picking up on these numbers and this is why we see market moves. The top weight Benny's Quest would have a great chance if the ground was faster but it will be good at best and he really needs it like a road.

It will be interesting to see how the market perceives the chance of Gizzit. In my opinion he is a lay and if there is any interest in one of the other runners he could drift a lot pre-race.

I am NOT saying he cannot win, I am saying the numbers do not stack up and long term it is profitable to oppose this type of runner.

Good luck

[JollyGreen]

You can see from the result, Gizzit is on the correct mark. This was a poor race and he still managed to finish second! This now means he is unlikely to win again soon unless connections can find a weak race and connections have perhaps found the key to him.

I watched the race closely and basically he was pushed up to join the leader on the bend. When push came to shove he tried hard but that's as good as he is.

I was expecting a drift pre-race if support came for others but apart from the winner there seemed very little true market interest. As I said, these prove profitable long term because very few punters want to look closely at the form.

JG

[to75ne]

another goog call jg

[JollyGreen]

another goog call jg

Thank you!