Market moves - right or wrong?

[Iron]

I'm sure it's exceptionally close. However, there is a world of difference between more or less breaking even and profiting. The transition is not merely a case of eradicating stupid mistakes - you have to systematically exploit a market inefficiency.

Jeff

Try dutching the horse racing so you have a 50% chance of winning putting your bets in just before the start, you'l be surprised how close it is.

[marko236]

I'm sure it's exceptionally close. However, there is a world of difference between more or less breaking even and profiting. The transition is not merely a case of eradicating stupid mistakes - you have to systematically exploit a market inefficiency.

Jeff

Try dutching the horse racing so you have a 50% chance of winning putting your bets in just before the start, you'l be surprised how close it is.

Totally agree, stupid mistakes is the first one to get rid of then exploit market inefficiency.

[Zenyatta]

You claim you don't require a good head space, except that is very reason why you aren't going to make it work. You seem to simply turn into gambler if you feel the market is pushing around, instead of learning and applying it to your next trade.

On lower grade races, the prices are often pushed erratically around by huge numbers of ticks - time and time again what I could have sworn to be clear trends turned out to simply be temporary price spikes that were followed by huge sudden reversals. I feel that momentum trading on the lower grade races would be a recipe for disaster for most people, and it is much better to simply look for value and oppose price moves.

The quality races and the big meets, I feel, is where momentum trading can work best. For most people, it would be much easier identify real trends there.

[Iron]

time and time again what I could have sworn to be clear trends turned out to simply be temporary price spikes that were followed by huge sudden reversals.

I sense that what you are looking for is an ability to predict the future. Instead, you might want to say:

'I will see where this move leads. It might lead nowhere, or I might get 20 ticks. I don't know what the future holds - I'm just going to ride the bucking bronco until it throws me off, when I will wait for a good opportunity to get back on'.

Jeff

[Naffman]

If you predict a market move and it is not moving as you would like, you shouldn't complain if it goes against you. That is why you need to cut your losses short, and I know it is a cliché but the quote "cut your losses short and let your profits run" is the most important principle in my trading.

[Zenyatta]

If you predict a market move and it is not moving as you would like, you shouldn't complain if it goes against you. That is why you need to cut your losses short, and I know it is a cliché but the quote "cut your losses short and let your profits run" is the most important principle in my trading.

Of course, I've always tried to cut losses right away, only I still lose, for the simple reason I outlined... it's simply too difficult to correctly identify trends on lower-grade races. My attempts to do have always resulted in a strike rate well below 50% (worse than chance).

[Iron]

Some of the top traders in the world have a < 50% strike rate but still make lots of money.

Trading success is not all about prediction. If you accept that you know less than nothing, you'll spare yourself a lot of heartache, as it won't feel so personal when the market goes against you.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain

Jeff

it's simply too difficult to correctly identify trends on lower-grade races. My attempts to do have always resulted in a strike rate well below 50% (worse than chance).

[Zenyatta]

Trading success is not all about prediction. If you accept that you know less than nothing, you'll spare yourself a lot of heartache, as it won't feel so personal when the market goes against you.

If trading was profitable for me in the long run, then I would have absolutely no problem taking losses. Trouble for you and me is, the losses are exceeding the gains.

I've got no problem with trading advice being handed out, but I often feel its seriously misleading or incomplete. Trading is frequently being made out to be much easier than it really is, and no, I'm not a believer in the 'positive thinking' bullshit.

[Iron]

Trading is frequently being made out to be much easier than it really is, and no, I'm not a believer in the 'positive thinking' bullshit.

It may surprise you to read this, but to a point I actually agree with you.

Trading can be psychologically difficult - that is well documented (although it doesn't have to be if you can get into the zone and stay there).

As for positive thinking, what many people regard as positive thinking is bs, i.e. assuming everything will work out and not bringing an umbrella when rain is forecast. I'm also not keen on positive affirmations and the whole Law of Attraction thing (although for all I know, they might work).

However, I'm a fan of positive thinking in the sense of saying:

'**** it. I don't know for sure if this will work, but there is limited downside and a big potential upside, so I've nothing to lose by rolling the dice.'

That's the kind of attitude that Peter credits much of his success in trading and in life with.

Jeff

[Iron]

PS This salutory tale is an example of the sort of so-called positive thinking that makes me despair: https://www.thechartist.com.au/Trading- ... llars.html

[Euler]

However, I'm a fan of positive thinking in the sense of saying:

'**** it. I don't know for sure if this will work, but there is limited downside and a big potential upside, so I've nothing to lose by rolling the dice.'

That's the kind of attitude that Peter credits much of his success in trading and in life with.

Jeff

Exactly.

I think I've come up with a way of explaining opportunity and the correct attitude required to attain it. I'll see if I can record a video.

I just learnt over time that trying to see the positive in things leads to opportunity, but always seeing the negative just leads you down a black hole.

I used to be a PMA skeptic but I'm definitely on the other side of the fence now. Optimists find opportunities, pessimists find problems.

Of course you can't just go about life expecting things to happen if you are just a positive thinker, you still HAVE to make things happen.

[Iron]

I think I've come up with a way of explaining opportunity and the correct attitude required to attain it. I'll see if I can record a video.

I look forward to it.

That could be of interest to people outside of the Betfair trading community too.

Jeff

[burdo77]

I think positive thoughts are important to achieve your goals, however you need to be realistic to ensure your goals are achievable.

[Iron]

Why have goals? Why not simply aim for as much as you can get, rather than capping your success?

There is evidence that so-called SMART goals can actually be counter-productive.

I think positive thoughts are important to achieve your goals, however you need to be realistic to ensure your goals are achievable.

[Naffman]

That's why you need multiple goals, once you achieve one, set another, and so on.