Peters Blog

[freddy]

Not really sure what this is all about tbh .
and why it's getting more attention that other blog posts, maybe im missing the point, maybe someone will explaine .

obviously with betting close to 100% you are giving less away to the book, so its a sound principle to start with but it's a long way from a system.

If your looking to lay close to 100% then maybe just take sp wich you would break even before commision.

or if your looking for value lays and beating the ISP then surely based solely on the book %, some would turn out to be good value, some poor. and if were not trading the positions it takes alot of the skill out that could turn it profitable and you would almost certainly break even before commision at best.

[NileVentures]

Not really sure what this is all about tbh and why it's getting more attention that other blog posts, maybe im missing the point, maybe someone will explaine .

Freddy - I would suggest you read the blog and the follow-up posts again

[freddy]

I still dont get it , other than the obvious that getting close to 100% you are giving less away and it maybe a good starting point.

If thats the point then fair enough, i agree in theory.

But It's worth saying However you can back / lay in to a slack book and still have a value back/lay, thats why im unsure if it can be made into a profitable system, and if it was you would probably be better off trading positions rather than just punting .

[Zenyatta]

I wonder if the one Peter scratched went on to win or did it lose as well and he would have got a perfect 10/10 for the day?

Given the size of the stakes and the prices shown on Peter's blog, those would be really big liabilities for most people -

One needs to have a really big bank to profit from lays... For zone.1 lays (price <3.00) you could risk maybe 5% of bank, zone 2 lays (3-6) you could risk maybe 10% of bank, zone 3 lays (6-9), you could risk maybe 15% of bank. I'd want something like a 30K betting bank .... I'd need to win the lottery again to be able to throw that sort of money around

If the lays are in zone 1 (price <3.00) I'd be more inclined to trade it rather than lay outright; do an In-Play lay2back and push for 50 ticks say.

[PeterLe]

Hi
I just thought Id give one last update on this..
After yesterday I reviewed what worked well and what didnt..(hone and refine)
I tested using small stakes earlier in the day with a safety net back..ie after the initial lay bet had been fired in, it checked to see if it was likely to go against me..what I found was that with Cross matching, it was closing out my positions (even when they went on to lose ie a wining bet), so I decided to scrape that idea.
I finally was happy with the system and let it go (this time to liability staking) and it produced a very good result.
(The Loss at -£22.41 was a large lay at 1.18, I was on the phone at the time and Im wondering if the market was suspended and then unsuspended producing a false signal perhaps??) I need to work on this area a little

NV To answer your question..there are a lot of criteria at work, but the effect cross matching has on the market does open opportunities..check it out

test with small stakes and small odds..

Right pub time, the missus is throwing me daggers!
Regards
Peter

[PeterLe]

Peter
Just read your blog; Are you offering a prize if we guess your holiday location
Regards
Peter

[Naffman]

My guess is USA, California to be precise. Santa Anita the famous racecourse, Death Valley being the desert and I'm sure there are a few smart people over that way as well. Am I right or way off?

[Euler]

It is indeed California, I'll post up some more stuff tomorrow but must get to bed now its 1am here.

I've put some photos on our facebook page of Santa Anita Racecourse.

[gazuty]

It is indeed California, I'll post up some more stuff tomorrow but must get to bed now its 1am here.

I've put some photos on our facebook page of Santa Anita Racecourse.

Great stuff Peter. Weather looks very nice. And the track does indeed look like the most beautiful in the world with the mountains in the background. Will add to my bucket list.

Next year you will have to come for the carnival at Flemington.

[Naffman]

I love those mountains too. Santa Anita, Kentucky, Dubai, Laytown and Sha Tin are all on my bucket list, if I can ever stop working that is

[NeilSpence]

PeterLe,
I am a bit confused as to which laying automated strategy can be used. Unless I missed it, there isnt a specific method of which horses to lay in the original blog, only that they were layed at a certain average.
How do you know you are testing the same thing??

[PeterLe]

PeterLe,

How do you know you are testing the same thing??

I dont. I was just doing my own thing

[Archangel]

In relation to the blog post today, Peter you mentioned you would reduce stakes if there was not much prize money on offer..... I would be interested to know how prize money at a meeting correlates to the trading of that meeting ?

[Euler]

More money traded at a meeting means I can get in and out of positions easily. If there isn't much money I can't so I reduce stakes to speed up that process.

I actually forecast turnover so I can get this as accurate as possible. But often when you a join a market you can tell fairly quickly what level stake at.

[Euler]

If you look today - York prize money today £245k, Fontwell £8k