Premier League 2014/15
Aston Villa vs Southampton (Monday)
I know Saints have been sensational and Villa terrible, but surely 1.80 for Saints is too short?
In all my years as a Southampton fan, I never thought I'd see them trading at 4/5 to win a league match at Villa Park!
I reckon they could be a great lay because it's hard to believe they'll shorten further. If Saints do shorten then it will only be for a few ticks, but if they drift I reckon they will go out to at least Evens - 20+ ticks (especially as Schneiderlin withdraw from the French team injured......will he play?)
Even as a biased Saints fan, I'd consider 2.20 as poor value, so there could be a 30 tick swing here
I know Saints have been sensational and Villa terrible, but surely 1.80 for Saints is too short?
In all my years as a Southampton fan, I never thought I'd see them trading at 4/5 to win a league match at Villa Park!
I reckon they could be a great lay because it's hard to believe they'll shorten further. If Saints do shorten then it will only be for a few ticks, but if they drift I reckon they will go out to at least Evens - 20+ ticks (especially as Schneiderlin withdraw from the French team injured......will he play?)
Even as a biased Saints fan, I'd consider 2.20 as poor value, so there could be a 30 tick swing here
I would have thought this would be an easy win to Saints to be honest. Saints have a tough run of fixtures after this match, though it wouldn't surprise me if they got a result from City, and Villa have 4 relegation fighting teams after this. Can't see them losing this, but I agree with you LeTiss, people will be doubting how long they can keep going so they could definitely drift.
Villa are awful at home though. Absolute garbage. This terrible home form is stretching up for a couple of seasons already. Saints are flying atm and everyone are awaiting their first stumble, but I doubt it would be at Villa Park. Of course its very risky to take the 1.80 offer, but what if you look at the form of both teams, Saints are sure favourites. I think it will be an under match.
Another 6 weeksNaffman wrote:Big blow for Liverpool again with Sturridge out for another few weeks after inuring his other thigh.
Liverpool are looking a good lay at 4.00 for a top 4 spot - they need to overhaul 2 out of Chelsea, Man City, Southampton, Arsenal, Man Utd
Can't see that happening at all
I accept that, but what price do you think Saints would be for this match at St Mary's?Consty1 wrote:In reference to Villa v Southampton, Villa have Senderos, Vlaar, and Baker all likely out in defence.
I reckon they'd be something between 1.47 and 1.53
Therefore, surely odds of 1.79 to 1.81 is terrible value for them to win at Villa Park?
I'm not predicting a Villa win, I'd love 3 points for the Saints, but I'm talking pure trading here and I think Saints are poor value.
I've stacked up some lay bets at 1.79 - 1.81 and I'm allowing myself a 10 tick loss to 1.70 with 10mins before kick off, but I fancy 20-30 ticks my way to 2-2.20
I'm not disagreeing with you btw, price does look short, I was just making people aware that Villa have a defensive injury crisis and no Benteke. Southampton also went off at 1.92 in their last away game to Hull.
I think Spurs went off around 1.96 away at Villa a few weeks back.
I think Spurs went off around 1.96 away at Villa a few weeks back.
