Is it really possible to get long term profits using full au

[AngusMack78]

Hi,

I have beentrialling a numberr of different automation rules over the past 5 months and none of them turn a profit for more than a day or two. Is it possible to actually make a longprofit using advanced automation? Or are the markets to sufisticated that it is not possible to profit without actually sitting there in front of the computer trading.

If it is possible what sort of markets , rules should I be using I have ttried horseracing, football and tennis thus far all without success.

Regards,

Angus

[gazuty]

Yes, yes it is possible. Look at my returns on the motivation thread.

If what you have developed is a loser, have you thought about refining and tweaking or the inverse of what you are doing?

IMHO you need to start with a theory (a hunch, an idea - call it what you will). Then you need to refine, think, experiment, tweak etc.

Not being disrespectful, but I also suggest reading, reading, reading. Familiarity with probability theory, stats, bookmaking theory, possible game outcomes and scoring outcomes, regression to the mean, etc. suggestions black swan, fooled by randomness, drunkards walk, Nate silver http://fivethirtyeight.com, Malcolm Gladwell http://gladwell.com/blowing-up/ , you are not so smart etc etc.

[NeilSpence]

How long have you tested each one for? Maybe you hit a bad patch and don't give it time to come good.
If it is close to working then maybe just tweaking it a bit may turn it.

I do a bit in play and just asking for a price 2-3 ticks lower usually gets matched. It makes a difference in the long term.

[AngusMack78]

Thanks for thye advice guys. I will try those things and do the reading. The markets do appear so sofisticated.

I was trying one rule for months the premise being lay an outlying in a horse race when its price reaches 50 when the fav is short ie 1.3 in play. But I realised after months of tweaking that too many of the 50s came back to win.

I have tried the inverse but I get caught because I thought because it took me a while to realise that using offset stiops or green all at a certain profit that when laying the stop is going to be triggered regularly due to the short movement required in the price.


I have dabled in other things. But will keep trying because I ultuimatly believe that a profit can be made.

Regards,

Angus

[gazuty]

My other advice to everyone if you are trading out, is betfair is a gaint game of pass the parcel. You need to be able to sell your parcel to the next player. And then you need a plan if the music stops and you are holding the parcel.

[doncht]

You need to be able to sell your parcel to the next player

Thanks Gazuti, is there an example on how to get started with that?

[gazuty]

You need to be able to sell your parcel to the next player

Thanks Gazuti, is there an example on how to get started with that?

I think of it as a matter of psychology - what conditions need to exist to make the next player want the parcel.