I'm modeling a pricing system for under and over 2.5 goals and would like your opinions on this question.
What is more important in this calculation, The disparity in the teams relative strengths or the who has home advantage?
Under/Over 2.5 Goal what is more important?
I've been analysing the over/under markets for a long time. Currently I'm trying to replicate the punter in the big games who stakes hundreds (sometimes thousands) of pounds on every price in every market. (I reckon know 90% of what he does, the other 10% still eludes me 
.)
I'm happy to be corrected but from what I've observed the successful traders pay scant regard for the relative merits of either team.
.)I'm happy to be corrected but from what I've observed the successful traders pay scant regard for the relative merits of either team.
The difference between the teams doesn't directly influence the over and unders price, more the match odds price. But I guess it depends on what you are trying to do.
If you have a Chelsea playing a Leicester at home then you would necessarily push the number of goals towards a higher value. If Chelsea were playing City away then you would lower the value.
But the actual difference between the two in terms of goals dictates the match odds. So your focus should be on how many goals, not who they are going to.
If you have a Chelsea playing a Leicester at home then you would necessarily push the number of goals towards a higher value. If Chelsea were playing City away then you would lower the value.
But the actual difference between the two in terms of goals dictates the match odds. So your focus should be on how many goals, not who they are going to.
It's a minefield in all honesty
There are so many other variables -
The weather impacts upon goals in a match
There seems to be a variance in daytime vs evening goals scored
Injuries to key players before kick-off
Importance of the match - will a team be happy defending for just a point?
Red Card during play, or a key injury
etc
There are so many other variables -
The weather impacts upon goals in a match
There seems to be a variance in daytime vs evening goals scored
Injuries to key players before kick-off
Importance of the match - will a team be happy defending for just a point?
Red Card during play, or a key injury
etc
The reason why i asked the original question was this,
I am running a model and i use both the two as criteria and as a test i'm going weight one more than the other to see the results it produces.
At this time the model has thrown up 309 trades 146 have been winners returning a profit of 3451.50 to a 100 stake per match.
I understand there is a very accurate methodology already but im trying to look at it from a completely different angle.
Euler you say if Chelsea were playing Leicester the number would be pushed up and down for Man City. So are you using a Chelsea goal expectancy as the baseline to work from?
I am running a model and i use both the two as criteria and as a test i'm going weight one more than the other to see the results it produces.
At this time the model has thrown up 309 trades 146 have been winners returning a profit of 3451.50 to a 100 stake per match.
I understand there is a very accurate methodology already but im trying to look at it from a completely different angle.
Euler you say if Chelsea were playing Leicester the number would be pushed up and down for Man City. So are you using a Chelsea goal expectancy as the baseline to work from?