Over 1.5 Goals Matches

[TraderTom]

In 2014/15 73% of all premier league matches had over 1.5 goals. Percent to odds: 73% = 1,36 or 4/11.

Ok. Now lets say you can get 1,60 inplay after 15 min, it should be a valuebet... right? Or am i missing something here?... and what if you did this in every PL game, how would you do over a season? Win or loose?

[marko236]

In 2014/15 73% of all premier league matches had over 1.5 goals. Percent to odds: 73% = 1,36 or 4/11.

Ok. Now lets say you can get 1,60 inplay after 15 min, it should be a valuebet... right? Or am i missing something here?... and what if you did this in every PL game, how would you do over a season? Win or loose?

You have to take into account the number of games that would have a goal before 15 mins, and the rest of the games that don't have a goal after 15 mins a large percentage of these games will have less than 1.5 goals. I would say lose

[oxfordmale]

I would say lose. I was running a similar system on over 0.5 goals and I was on average losing by the Betfair commission rate. As a rule of thumb you should assume that the quoted odds are on average correct, so you would loose at the Betfair commission rate.

That doesn't mean you can't make profit with your system, you just have to select your games carefully. For example, based on your football experience do you believe more or less goals are scored on a wet pitch ? If you believe there is a difference you might have an edge by looking at the weather predictions for a match. But as usual, please test this first in training mode before you put any money on it.

[LeTiss]

That's a definite lose, especially after commission

How many of those matches with over 1.5 goals scored, were 0-0 after 15mins?

That's the question you need to ask?

[markjacks]

I thought it was a win here based on my first glance. But thanks for confirming this though.