Grand National 2015 - updated Saturday morning.

[JollyGreen]

Hi to all

I am sorry for not being around that much of late, it's been a mixture of health issues for me, other projects and trying to help one of my best friends fight cancer. Sadly it is now a fight with only one winner!

Anyway I was given a message that someone had mentioned me and the Grand National..my old mate Marc...so I will take a look. I have run the system I have used for many years but the shape of the race is different these days with the change to the fences. I am not moaning about that as I want to see every horse and jockey come back safe and sound. It does mean I need to tweak things a bit as last year I cut the winner with my last assessment!!

I know why Shutthefrontdoor is so short in price, AP's last National, Jonjo is the trainer and JP is the owner. There will be whispers up and down the land saying "it's AP's last race so he's bound to win"...errrr....I think not. There I have said it, Shutthefrontdoor will run a good race (safe too I hope) but I do not think he will win. He is only 8 and that is against him in my book. I am not too worried about his lack of a recent run, he clearly goes well fresh and has won off a break before. He has a big weight to hump round and that is also against him. I would not be surprised to see a lot of "housewives'" money and for the price to shrink. This may go 6.5 or even 6 if we don't find a plunge on another horse or horses.

Ballycasey can have a line put through him strictly on form. He has won on Soft/heavy at 21 furlongs but that is way short of this marathon trip. I can only make a judgement on what I see and what I know so it's a no from me. Unless Willie Mullins has an ace up his sleeve then I couldn't back him with your money.

Lord Windermere very quirky horse and I still cannot believe he won the 2014 Cheltenham Gold. He always gets outpaced which admittedly might not be a problem over this trip but he has too much weight for me.

Many Clouds Good horse but again he is a youngster at 8 and he also has too much weight

Unioniste I have never been impressed with horse, talented yes, but no world beater. Again I think he is too young and his best form seems to come with cut in the ground. Unless the rain comes I can see him struggling

Rocky Creek Ran a good race last year to finish 5th. Many pundits are saying he did much of the leg work last year but that is his style of running. I think if they try and bury him in the pack with a view to him lasting home his jumping will suffer. If he can be somewhere close without having to set the pace then he has an each way chance.

First Lieutenant This is a class horse and he's been AWOL in terms of wins with April 2013 being his last. He has dropped in the handicap and while a lot are saying he is a non stayer he is by Presenting so he should have stamina reserves. His lady pilot is more than capable of winning if the horse gets a clear run and does stay.

Pineau de re Had his day in the sun last year and now a 12yo, I simply cannot see him repeating the success but I expect him to give his best.

To be continued....sorry folks but 20:00 is my bedtime!

JG

[convoysur-2]

Good man dave,aka jollygreen.looking forward to the rest of it.just as well its not finished because im sure people would plagiarised it overnight,,,hope your well buddy..

[JollyGreen]

Okay folks so part 2....

If I miss out a horse it is because I have no real opinion on it. This is a tricky race to assess and I could have a short-list of 10 and still not find the winner!!

Spring Heeled A great jumper but I am concerned about him staying the trip. If they can get him settled and in a rhythm then he has an each way chance

Rebel Rebellion I am not sure he would win if he started now. Only form of note is second to Soll but I cannot see him staying this trip

Night in Milan This is a bit of dark horse. He is good at his fences and seems able to fiddle when he misses a stride. Could be a candidate for a back to lay as he runs prominently and jumps well. I give him a squeak

Cause of Causes He is a youngster and so history is very much against him. I am also concerned it is only a few weeks since he won the 4m race at Cheltenham. I am not one for talking about a jockey's choice but with JP owning this one and it being AP's last National you'd think they would put AP up??

Godsmejudge You can forget the poor runs where he was pulled up, apparently he had ulcers and they have since been sorted. He stays longer than the mother in law and won the Scottish National on similar ground to today.

Alvarado I think Paul Moloney is possibly one of the best riders around here, he always seems to plot a safe route. Now watch him hit the deck at the first! Seriously, I like his profile and last year's run will stand him in good stead and I think he looks a good each way bet.

Soll My only concern is the ground, I fear it could be too fast for him. I hear that David Pipe is keen on this one and this race has always been the target. He is tricky to get right but knowing Pipe he will be spot on today. Chance.

Royale Knight Just crept into the race and has a feather weight of 10st 2lb. He is a sound conveyance and a look at his form shows he has never fallen. The trainer run this last year so he knows what's required. Chance

So that is about it folks, once again it is tricky race and I have a short-list. If we win it will be great, if we don't then let's hope we get a good run and that every horse and jockey come back safe and sound.

Good luck, small stakes and enjoy!

First Lieutenant
Night in Milan
Alvarado
Soll
Royale Knight
Godsmejudge

Edit - I forgot to include Godsmejudge 10:42

[convoysur-2]

JOLLY ,thanks for taking the time to do this..last 3 years what i id was back all of your selections small 2 quis or something and lay them back in running and have come out green every time..good luck folks,,stay green
Marc

[convoysur-2]

PETER WEBB.....betfair are NOT offering cash out on horses today,,,good day to be tweeting and social media for free trial of betangel..
Marc[img]

[Euler]

Kidding me?

[convoysur-2]

peter not kidding click the litttle tab on right hand side of the help button top left of exchange page on betfair

[Euler]

Just checked with Betfair, it's true, what a bunch of dirtbags

[Euler]

Here are today's terms: -

https://en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/ans ... l/a_id/434

[convoysur-2]

being an out and out bookie on grand national day id probably very proffitable for them...

[Euler]

If they take more than 30p

11-04-2015 - Betfair restrictions.png

[Euler]

peter not kidding click the litttle tab on right hand side of the help button top left of exchange page on betfair

They seem to be worried about server load, better send that message out!

[LeTiss]

If they take more than 30p

That's unbelievable mate. Surely that fella has an account restriction, as I can't believe they would set such appalling liability levels as that

[Euler]

Seems silly on the national to restrict to that level

[Euler]

Betdaq is overbroke quite often #freemoney