Why was it easier in "the good old days"

[NeilSpence]

Hi all,
I am interested to get some views of experienced traders why it is harder to make money now as opposed to a few years back.
Is it because there are now more experienced people in the market battling each other or are there other factors involved?
With Betdaq now growing does that mean if some big fish move over there then Betfair will then become easier again?

Thanks

[Euler]

All markets sink to their lowest marginal return over time. But it's still possible to evolve and move forward. But a lot of people don't. They just stick with something they know despite the returns falling away.

[oscar123]

Personally i would say the reason it was easier in the old days was that the bots were far less sophisticated. There are many other factors, things change all the time and markets evolve, though i would put forward the sophistication of the bots as one of the reasons it is much harder on there these days.

If you traded on Betdaq yesterday it was like a trip down memory lane, it was like betfair before the bots took over.I wouldnt expect things to get any easier on betfair to be honest, as most of the 'big fish' as you put it are robots, they wont be going anywhere anytime soon.

It may be that Betdaq trades like the old betfair for a while, until the bots start to take over on there too! Thats just my opinion though, im sure different people will tell you different things.

[DRED1]

The reason it’s harder if this statement is true, can be compared to online poker 5 years ago compared to today.

More sophisticated bots in play
Greater knowledge base available
More participants involved
Reduced edge

Adapt and survive. Hope Betdaq takes off.

[Euler]

You leave £10 on the table and people offer to buy it.

Initially nobody is at the table, so anybody that chances on it can have it almost for free.

Others join the fray and we get into a competitive bidding situation. So people start offering more for the £10 and so returns drop. But as the market gets busier more money is put on the table.

So if you find a slightly more efficient way of doing it, your % return has dropped but your £ return has increased.

People who sit on their old strategy without evolving it will see their % & £ return decrease.

Before long you will find people not looking at the table to see if there is money there, but anticipating that money is about to arrive. This often catches out old participants because they are wondering where the money has gone.

Sometimes people move to other tables.

[LeTiss]

You should write a book with your pearls of wisdom PW, littered with all your observations and anecdotes.

[spreadbetting]

Easier in the old days because Betfair weren't grabbing for every crumb they could get their sticky fingers on too.

[tricola]

The company wanted the exchange in that days.
They didnt write those phrases: "exchange bets exluded".
Im Pro since 2007. I know Betfair since 2004, but considering leaving pro if this year will not meet my expectations(20k per year) as to be honest builders and cleaners have more around. Very low margin now for traders, some of the sports are drying up on eyes(NBA- for example- thats the worst year as form the very first day I observe that. Traders are not a problem, Im not worry for competition of them, I like it. Punters are missing. Its become boring, mechanical, loosing dynamics, and to worsen the situation charges are higher wit lower margins for traders like me. If you have low expectations, low costs and you happy to have 500pm thats still for you.

[DRED1]

You're not wrong I pay my cleaner 25k

[andyfuller]

You should write a book with your pearls of wisdom PW, littered with all your observations and anecdotes.

+1

I have the title already:

'Peter Webb - The oracle of Hook'

[NeilSpence]

Bet Angel @betangel · 14 hrs 14 hours ago

According to my PC statement fourth best week for two years last week.

Can those that have answered explain this...
It is a tweet from Peter a couple of days ago.
Why is he able to have such a profitable week with all this restrictions that other people see?

[steven1976]

Probably because BA are the market for horses! how do you think they identifies all them 10 pounds bets when 1000s are being matched by the second?

[tricola]

You're not wrong I pay my cleaner 25k

Guy 45, living in Slough operating by Van- he does the building stuff, and gave me an example:
"house roof-64m2 altogether I do that for 8k, costs are 3k, if the weather won't be bad, 3-5 days- done" He is in Spain with family at the moment.
So its personal decision if you want to pretend being as "trader of betfair" or just have bit dirty hands and not to be concern if, sportsbook is a main page, or people are making BBQs and you sit and observe moving bots on Saturday afternoon making your pennies.
We have great BA comparing to those old days, inadequate to the betfair we had that day.

[Naffman]

There is a term I learned in Economics - Opportunity cost. However, if you are more happy trading than going to a 'real job' then that has to be taken into consideration.

[oscar123]

Nobody is saying that you can't win anymore, just that it is a lot more difficult than in the 'good old days'. Particularly on betfair with all the bots, PC, betfairs own bots (XM etc). If you struggle on betfair in may be that you find Betdaq a lot easier, I know I do, at least for the time being.

And your example isn't the best, it's a bit like saying if the champions league is such a great league,then why is it than Lionel messi is still able to score a hat trick!