Hi all,
I’ve been trading the pre horse racing for nearly a year now, and it hasn’t been the best of journeys.
When I started trading, I understood that it wasn’t going to be easy, but I don’t think I realised how difficult it really is.
I have now lost nearly 1K over the year, and I’m now down to a minimal bank which I can’t really afford to add to.
I’m a massive fan of Caan Berry’s work and of course have bought the trading guide and video pack. They have both helped, because I do understand the markets better than when I first started out.
I am now at a stage where my days trading ends about even, a small win or the occasional big loss. This of course is slow eating into what’s left of my bank.
At one stage it was going so bad I decided to switch to training mode, but as much as I tried to trade seriously, I just couldn’t due to the knowing that it’s play money. I also lost the benefit of the live feed, which is really a must for the pre race markets.
I really do believe I can succeed in this, otherwise I would have given up months ago, but the question I do ask myself, am I determined or delusional?
I know I’m probably the only one that can truly answer this, (If I only knew the answer), but I’m in hope of a bit of feedback, either positive or negative, to help straighten my head a bit.
I have also posted this on the Geeks Toy forum in a hope for as much feedback as possible.
Thanks for reading.
Dan.
determined or delusional?
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Hi Dan,
Have you considered looking into other sports, or even markets, like he US?
You'd be surprised by the amount of guys iut there that don't trade the UK racing markets.
Give them a go, I was on a similar path as you and about to quit, until everything changed. Hope it helps.
Have you considered looking into other sports, or even markets, like he US?
You'd be surprised by the amount of guys iut there that don't trade the UK racing markets.
Give them a go, I was on a similar path as you and about to quit, until everything changed. Hope it helps.
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burntheory
- Posts: 59
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:49 am
Hi Dan,
I’m not a trader but echo the thoughts of the previous poster.
It seems to me Betfair is perceived as a zero expectation market, excluding commission, etc. That being the case, if a player can gain an edge greater than their commission rate, they should be able to turn a profit. Whilst that may be broadly true, at least as a starting position, Bayes Theorem of conditional probabilities raises questions about it.
As a non-trader, it appears trading is portrayed as requiring relatively high levels of liquidity. If this is the case, new or inexperienced traders are liable to be drawn to the markets offering the highest levels of liquidity. But isn’t this where we’d expect to find the ‘big beasts’ operating, i.e. regular winners and full-time pros? I’ve no idea how many of these there are, or how much money they make on an annual basis but, by definition, they are effectively turning a zero expectation market into a negative expectation one for everybody else. So, in addition to a player’s commission rate, he/she needs to have a big enough edge to overcome this additional negative expectation.
All of which makes the business of trying to turn a profit in these markets even tougher. So, in addition to the last poster’s suggestion, have you considered entering and getting out of your chosen markets before the big money starts to appear on the scene?
Good luck.
I’m not a trader but echo the thoughts of the previous poster.
It seems to me Betfair is perceived as a zero expectation market, excluding commission, etc. That being the case, if a player can gain an edge greater than their commission rate, they should be able to turn a profit. Whilst that may be broadly true, at least as a starting position, Bayes Theorem of conditional probabilities raises questions about it.
As a non-trader, it appears trading is portrayed as requiring relatively high levels of liquidity. If this is the case, new or inexperienced traders are liable to be drawn to the markets offering the highest levels of liquidity. But isn’t this where we’d expect to find the ‘big beasts’ operating, i.e. regular winners and full-time pros? I’ve no idea how many of these there are, or how much money they make on an annual basis but, by definition, they are effectively turning a zero expectation market into a negative expectation one for everybody else. So, in addition to a player’s commission rate, he/she needs to have a big enough edge to overcome this additional negative expectation.
All of which makes the business of trying to turn a profit in these markets even tougher. So, in addition to the last poster’s suggestion, have you considered entering and getting out of your chosen markets before the big money starts to appear on the scene?
Good luck.
Hi, Dan,
Nearly all of us have been in your postion, nearly called time on my trading twice, best bit of advice i can give you is to trade less and spend more time looking at what causes your losses and spend more time working out how to reduce the bad trades you make, also spend time coming up with new trading ideas. My plan was and always will be to try new ideas if i come up with a thousand different ways to trade surly some of them will work, any new idea i come up with i'l use small amounts of money to test them, why lose lots of money trying something new?
Hope this helps.
Nearly all of us have been in your postion, nearly called time on my trading twice, best bit of advice i can give you is to trade less and spend more time looking at what causes your losses and spend more time working out how to reduce the bad trades you make, also spend time coming up with new trading ideas. My plan was and always will be to try new ideas if i come up with a thousand different ways to trade surly some of them will work, any new idea i come up with i'l use small amounts of money to test them, why lose lots of money trying something new?
Hope this helps.
"To Try Is To Succeed"
I would advise you to be persistent and give it more time (1 year is simply not long enough) and listen to the advice given by the other BA users. Try to analyse your bets to discover why you lose. Perhaps you should spread your wings and look at some other markets also.
Good luck
I would advise you to be persistent and give it more time (1 year is simply not long enough) and listen to the advice given by the other BA users. Try to analyse your bets to discover why you lose. Perhaps you should spread your wings and look at some other markets also.
Good luck
The only path to success is to keep at it. If its really something you want to succeed at
On a practical level i would suggest recording or analysing your trades. It will really surprise you what this can achieve. I did this myself and noticed i was making two or three errors consistently. When i erradicated these i started to see improvement. Getting better at something is simply down to persistance and reducing mistakes. Also, as others have mentioned, trying new markets and sports can throw up many opportunities
On a practical level i would suggest recording or analysing your trades. It will really surprise you what this can achieve. I did this myself and noticed i was making two or three errors consistently. When i erradicated these i started to see improvement. Getting better at something is simply down to persistance and reducing mistakes. Also, as others have mentioned, trying new markets and sports can throw up many opportunities
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
Hi All,
I still have my in play issue. I can scalp well enough but the monster reappears all the time, then my bank is gone, not through bad punting, but poor bank management that just takes me out of the game. I am in the same boat as OP. It's hard to keep going but haven't quit yet, but still don't know if I am delusional too....
I still have my in play issue. I can scalp well enough but the monster reappears all the time, then my bank is gone, not through bad punting, but poor bank management that just takes me out of the game. I am in the same boat as OP. It's hard to keep going but haven't quit yet, but still don't know if I am delusional too....
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Forget scalping, in all but a few decent markets it is a non starter. If you make 1 tick per trade then common sense dictates you should cut your loss at 1 tick. That means unless you are exceptional and a bit lucky you cannot win long term.
Think of it as a coin toss. If you play then long term you will only break even. If someone offers you 2.10 for heads and 2.00 for tails then you would shout heads ad infinitum. The gambler after three consecutive heads would shout tails
The latter relates more to swing or mini swing trading. It allows you to make mistakes but still be in profit. Yes, you have to learn it but it's better than treading water and getting nowhere from scalping.
JG
Think of it as a coin toss. If you play then long term you will only break even. If someone offers you 2.10 for heads and 2.00 for tails then you would shout heads ad infinitum. The gambler after three consecutive heads would shout tails
The latter relates more to swing or mini swing trading. It allows you to make mistakes but still be in profit. Yes, you have to learn it but it's better than treading water and getting nowhere from scalping.
JG
I also dont fully understand how people make money consistently scalping one and two ticks. The opportunities are in swing trading i agree. Every day the market throws up decent swing trades. Its jyst a matter of gaining a level of skill and confidence to do it right
Absolutely fascinating forum, I have very much enjoyed reading it. There was one quote on this thread that I found very intriguing and curious; "Forget scalping, in all but a few decent markets it is a non starter. If you make 1 tick per trade then common sense dictates you should cut your loss at 1 tick. That means unless you are exceptional and a bit lucky you cannot win long term."
I have been trading very successfully for many years on only the horse racing markets and all I do is scalp and I can assure you that when markets have behaved in certain ways that not all entry points have anything remotely like a 50-50 chance of moving in either direction and I would humbly suggest your analysis is flawed if you believe otherwise.
Please don't take any offence as none is intended and I have read Mr.Jolly Greens comments on other threads and found him to be both a wise and generous donator of advice, but on this particular point you may wish to review your data.
Wonderful forum and thank you for sharing it.
Good Luck
I have been trading very successfully for many years on only the horse racing markets and all I do is scalp and I can assure you that when markets have behaved in certain ways that not all entry points have anything remotely like a 50-50 chance of moving in either direction and I would humbly suggest your analysis is flawed if you believe otherwise.
Please don't take any offence as none is intended and I have read Mr.Jolly Greens comments on other threads and found him to be both a wise and generous donator of advice, but on this particular point you may wish to review your data.
Wonderful forum and thank you for sharing it.
Good Luck
Ajdal has a point on scalping, you can make money from it if you take the time to learn when to do so.
Lots of people get drawen towards scalping because it looks easy but as Jolly said it's a 50-50 chance of winning or losing so if your looking to make money scalping you would need a success rate of 60% or more which isn't easy but it can be done.
What do you do when you itch?
Lots of people get drawen towards scalping because it looks easy but as Jolly said it's a 50-50 chance of winning or losing so if your looking to make money scalping you would need a success rate of 60% or more which isn't easy but it can be done.
What do you do when you itch?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
As Marko correctly says, it is a 50/50 thing. What I advised was to forget scalping and to learn more about market moves. You will progress a lot faster and not suffer from small profits followed by the wipe out large order which ruins your hard work.
I have mentioned many times on here that scalping is possible if you know what you're looking for. It is not like it was when I started many years ago where scalping was almost a way of life.
I have mentioned many times on here that scalping is possible if you know what you're looking for. It is not like it was when I started many years ago where scalping was almost a way of life.
So much arrogance in that sentenceJollyGreen wrote:As Marko correctly says, it is a 50/50 thing.
If you really believe that it's a 50/50 thing then maybe you really are "off your rocker"! Your words Jolly, not mine 
All joking aside, I completely agree with Ajdal regarding scalping. I don't really care how many posts somebody has, one or a couple thousand. Jolly, what you are basically saying is that YOUR way of scalping is 50/50 and that YOUR way of scalping is not as profitable or easy as it once was. Saying that if you can't effectively scalp anymore then nobody else can either is just plain wrong on so many levels, if you ask me.
A lot of experienced traders on this forum keep saying how "they don't make 'em markets like they used to". Well you either get with the times or you get left behind, everyone and their dog already knows this. Scalping may have gotten a lot harder for some, but you can bet your life that there's someone out there who still finds scalping pretty easy, like Ajdal probably is.
You guys are talking about scalping like there's only one way to scalp and that's it, but there are so many ways in which you can scalp the markets that the only limits are your creativity and your (ladder) mechanics. I for example have a pro gaming (not gambling) background where mechanics are everything, and when I made the switch to trading I was very surprised to see how little importance people place on basic ladder mechanics, even the best known traders are sooo slow with their mouse and they don't even use keyboard shortcuts with their other hand.
My point being, trading is a game and there are many ways to play it. One single trader simply cannot know every single way or edge. No offense meant Jolly, I still like you and your avatar
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
There's no arrogance in the statement about it being 50/50 it's basic maths. You win one tick and you lose one tick which is 50/50 or 50% or Evens or 2.0 whichever way you want to write it. As mentioned your strike rate has to be phenomenal to achieve a profit and new traders will not achieve it. That is why I advised them to forget scalping and learn more about the markets.
You spouting about traders not using ladder mechanics and being sooo slow with their mouse clicks is arrogant. How many of the "best known traders" do you know and when did you sit with them and record them being slow! The data we collect shows how much harder it is to get orders filled which makes scalping much harder than it used to be no matter how fast your mouse click is. The longer you queue the greater the risk. What we see on the ladder is historic and you cannot predict a large order coming which will ruin the position. If you can predict that order coming then I concede you are better than me.
As you said , no offence!
JG
You spouting about traders not using ladder mechanics and being sooo slow with their mouse clicks is arrogant. How many of the "best known traders" do you know and when did you sit with them and record them being slow! The data we collect shows how much harder it is to get orders filled which makes scalping much harder than it used to be no matter how fast your mouse click is. The longer you queue the greater the risk. What we see on the ladder is historic and you cannot predict a large order coming which will ruin the position. If you can predict that order coming then I concede you are better than me.
As you said , no offence!
JG
i have probably read 95% or more of jollyg's post since this forum was created (and about 2 of yours). i cant recall jolly g saying that he cant make scalping pay anymore, and by inference cause he cant therefore nobody can.
he as stated that he believes that if someone wishes to learn to trade today with no prior knowledge and/or experience then because of the way markets have evolved over the last 7 to 10 years or so, that scalping is probably not the first/best method to learn/master, but a more directional biased approach would be a better way to learn, and he usually gives numerous reasons why he believes so.
i suggest anyone wishing to learn how to trade read as many of jollys post's as they can, they will learn useful and/or be aware of useful things.
"A lot of experienced traders on this forum keep saying how "they don't make 'em markets like they used to". Well you either get with the times or you get left behind, everyone and their dog already knows this."
there would be no experienced traders on these forums if we did not adapt/evolve, a stupid statement.
and as for the rest of the garbage you spouted, if you was to dig a bit deeper a certain regular poster leon the fixer was using gaming mouses/pads yonks ago, and woke up many traders (myself included) on how useful they can be; i also believe he was first trader to wake traders up to benefits of using scripts such as those written with auto hotkeys and writing scripts to execute variuos actions so to speak; not forgetting the proprietor of betangel who often posts about various gizzmos he as tried trading with (with mixed results),,,indeed in the last 2 or 3 days he posted yet another utube vid with his latest idea.
i would advise anyone learning to trade to read as many of jolly g's posts as they can(as well as others, but not yours), and hope that people such as yourself dont put off any potential/new traders from reading solid/sensible/valid advice.
he as stated that he believes that if someone wishes to learn to trade today with no prior knowledge and/or experience then because of the way markets have evolved over the last 7 to 10 years or so, that scalping is probably not the first/best method to learn/master, but a more directional biased approach would be a better way to learn, and he usually gives numerous reasons why he believes so.
i suggest anyone wishing to learn how to trade read as many of jollys post's as they can, they will learn useful and/or be aware of useful things.
"A lot of experienced traders on this forum keep saying how "they don't make 'em markets like they used to". Well you either get with the times or you get left behind, everyone and their dog already knows this."
there would be no experienced traders on these forums if we did not adapt/evolve, a stupid statement.
and as for the rest of the garbage you spouted, if you was to dig a bit deeper a certain regular poster leon the fixer was using gaming mouses/pads yonks ago, and woke up many traders (myself included) on how useful they can be; i also believe he was first trader to wake traders up to benefits of using scripts such as those written with auto hotkeys and writing scripts to execute variuos actions so to speak; not forgetting the proprietor of betangel who often posts about various gizzmos he as tried trading with (with mixed results),,,indeed in the last 2 or 3 days he posted yet another utube vid with his latest idea.
i would advise anyone learning to trade to read as many of jolly g's posts as they can(as well as others, but not yours), and hope that people such as yourself dont put off any potential/new traders from reading solid/sensible/valid advice.