Iv seen many times after a coach sacking a team wins, often they can pay extremely good odds. Does anyone know if there's value to be had by backing a team following a coach sacking?
I thought of this post following the sacking of Carlton coach in the afl.
Current sydney are at 1.04 against Carlton.
If anyone has watched afl the ball bouces like a dildo off a tennis racket, therefore I believe there is a lot more luck than other games.
Coach sacking and value
-
The dog of ry
- Posts: 274
- Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2014 2:17 am
I swear by this, especially in Rugby League. Gus Gould love him or hate him, summed it up beautifully once. He said that "once the coach is gone, the only other people to blame are the players. They have no choice but to pull their socks up"
I wish I had kept stats, but I always look for this. In saying that, the biggest problem tonight with Carlton is that they also have a STACK of first choice players out with injury... if they had a stronger lineup, I would consider a start but I think the reality is they will get pumped
I wish I had kept stats, but I always look for this. In saying that, the biggest problem tonight with Carlton is that they also have a STACK of first choice players out with injury... if they had a stronger lineup, I would consider a start but I think the reality is they will get pumped
I'm gonna lay before the match and get out at quarter time. I'm thinking it would be hard for the price to stay at that level unless they go 3 goals up in 5-10mins. At that low odd I'm def prepared for the gamble.
I really wish I had some stats on this aswell, it maybe just selective thinking that makes me think it's an edge.
I really wish I had some stats on this aswell, it maybe just selective thinking that makes me think it's an edge.
There was a great stat about Carlton the other week on the radio. The teams that beat Carlton the last 14 times LOST the next week.
Brisbane broke this stat, that's right, bottom of the table Brisbane beat Carlton and won the next week.
Reverting back to the NRL, it was always a great bet to back the team that DID NOT have the bye around State of Origin time, the theory being the one week break was not in your favour against a team that played the week before. It was a very favourable stat.
Based on that the Panthers should lose tonight (1.35).
The Titans to lose on Saturday (2.45).
The Sea Eagles to lose on Saturday (4).
The Warriors to lose on Sunday (1.25).
This is also something to watch when the AFL bye rounds happen.
Strange things happen in football but as for Carlton tonight, the line is 72.5, Buddy has not scored for two weeks, he may kick that himself.
Even money to kick the most goals seem over generous.
Sydney by 100+
Brisbane broke this stat, that's right, bottom of the table Brisbane beat Carlton and won the next week.
Reverting back to the NRL, it was always a great bet to back the team that DID NOT have the bye around State of Origin time, the theory being the one week break was not in your favour against a team that played the week before. It was a very favourable stat.
Based on that the Panthers should lose tonight (1.35).
The Titans to lose on Saturday (2.45).
The Sea Eagles to lose on Saturday (4).
The Warriors to lose on Sunday (1.25).
This is also something to watch when the AFL bye rounds happen.
Strange things happen in football but as for Carlton tonight, the line is 72.5, Buddy has not scored for two weeks, he may kick that himself.
Even money to kick the most goals seem over generous.
Sydney by 100+
If Carlton win it will surely have to go down as the biggest underdog story. They are totally lacking confidence, inexperienced coach, players injured and playing last season's finalists. I would however rather keep my money in the bank than back Sydney.
There is a psychological impact of a new manager sacking, which is generally +ve but it relies on the appointing a decent replacement.
I saw this article recently: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517
But I know from experiance and cold hard cash that it often does make sense to sack a manager to benefit from the new manager effect.
Can't talk in this particular case though.
You may want to have a nose at this video: -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plw2fjmACJ0
I saw this article recently: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23724517
But I know from experiance and cold hard cash that it often does make sense to sack a manager to benefit from the new manager effect.
Can't talk in this particular case though.
You may want to have a nose at this video: -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plw2fjmACJ0
-
Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 850
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
burdo77 wrote: like a dildo off a tennis racket
Explains the women tennis players moaning at every shot I suppose![quoteThere is a psychological impact of a new manager sacking, which is generally +ve but it relies on the appointing a decent replacement. ][/quote]
I just read that article Euler, any idea how they measured performance, was it expected goals vs Actual goals or expected win vs actual wins?
Do you think that the best way to measure performance would be to compare the handicap with the resultant margin?
I just read that article Euler, any idea how they measured performance, was it expected goals vs Actual goals or expected win vs actual wins?
Do you think that the best way to measure performance would be to compare the handicap with the resultant margin?