Statistics for Favourites - Flat & NH last 5 or 10 years

[NatterJack]

Hi Can anyone help me with this
I am working on a dutching idea and need to check if it's profitable or not.
Basically, I leave out the fav plus any outsiders over 20/1 and dutch the rest for a small target profit per race. I need to know what the current percentages are for winning favourites. Any additional breakdown ( by race type or and/or course ) would be very useful. If anyone has got this info and is willing to share I would be most grateful.

[JollyGreen]

Hi

This is a site with a free stats service Flat Stats I am not sure how much you get for free but it is worth a look

JG

[JollyGreen]

Hi

I wasn't sure if this site was still running but it is Adrian Massey

JG

[NatterJack]

Thanks guys. I'll look at the links in more detail tomorrow but at first glance Adrian Massey looks perfect for what I need.

[Scalping2go]

Dutching –

Over the past few weeks I have been dutching Australian races with some success.

Initial logic was that about 80% of races are won by horses with SP 10/1 or less (12.00 on Betfair). It should also be noted that about 75% of races are won by horses that have had a break less than 25 days.

Therefore about 95 % of races are won by a horse with either Belfair odds less than $ 12:10 or previous run less than 25 days.

Using the above, over the past few weeks, with a few rules in selecting races and with the aim of winning $20 each race, I have achieved a profit of $7.00 per race.

Naturally I need to continue dutching before large amounts are invested. I would be delight to receive comments, suggestions and most importantly criticism.

[LinusP]

Easy to back test and if I was you I would delete your post as it won't be profitable if we all start doing it

[marko236]

Easy to back test and if I was you I would delete your post as it won't be profitable if we all start doing it

Not very often someone posts which seems to be a winning stratagy, maybe it will make others do the same?

[Scalping2go]

Thanks for the comments - three points 1. Dutching is not for everybody so I am happy if I can help others BUT before we get carried away it must be tested and tested again. 2. If anybody has any suggestions that may be incorporated I will be delighted to consider them 3. Any method is only as good as the management plan. ( that is really the part of the system that has allowed my initial test to show a reasonable hourly profit)

[rinconpaul]

I put your post up on our local forum, and there are some good replies if you want to go there:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/ ... hp?t=30402

[burdo77]

Initial logic was that about 80% of races are won by horses with SP 10/1 or less (12.00 on Betfair). It should also be noted that about 75% of races are won by horses that have had a break less than 25 days.

Therefore about 95 % of races are won by a horse with either Belfair odds less than $ 12:10 or previous run less than 25 days.

Hi mate, not sure where you derive the 95% could you please elaborate?

I would of thought that at least 90% of races are won by < SP 10, therefore it seems to be less than efficient.

Correct me if wrong?

[Scalping2go]

Hi and thanks - the 95% is the actual results from my investments. Although I did not bet this weekend at the main meetings in Australia "in theory" i would have selected 23 meetings and won 23. If I had been betting I would have expected at least one loss. Of the selected races, 20 were at odds less than 12.00 with 3 greater than 12.00 but selected because the days between races criteria. If only everday was like this !!!!!!!!!!!!

[burdo77]

Here's the logic to your strategy if your interested.

1/12= 0.083 therefore the inverse in your case is 1-0.083 = 0.917
Or 91.7% probability of winning take into account overound of possibly 2% . However you estimate you have 95% chance of winning which means you have 3.3% edge. Just quietly I think the edge lies in betting <25days.

Over a long period it may prove to be more or less than that figure.

[Scalping2go]

Thanks. Actual figure from races - I aim for a dutch with the max loss $200 (this is important for money management) which is 4% of my current capital. Each day my max loss is changed as my capital increases. ie $5000 - $200, $6000 - $240. The min amount to win including commission) is 0.4% of capital - ie 5000 -$20, $6000 - $24. If I cannot achieve a profit require or the risk is greater than the max - NO BET. As I said before select all horses with Betfair odds 12.00 or less and and other horse that have run within the last three week. Accepting that I have achieved 95 wins and $5 loss. - The average loss was $193.00 with the average win after commission $19.65. Total win $901.75 - looks great but before I really get into dutching I will need at least real - not theory - 3000 races. Hope this gets other people thinking about the value of dutching. Thanks for joining the conversation