Unmatched Trades and Betfair SP

[ajdal]

Hi All

I was watching some market activity recently that made me wonder does anyone know how close the Betfair SP correlates to the last traded price, preferably based on real data?

I've read Betfairs explanation on SP generation https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... html#link4, but it fails to confirm whether all unmatched SP tagged trades on the ladder ALWAYS get matched?

[Euler]

SP closely follows the last traded price, but.... If the horse gets off to a good or bad start it wont as people with faster pictures will exploit that good or bad start.

[ajdal]

Thank you for taking the time to answer, it was most kind, but I was really more hoping someone could de-mystify precisely how closely the Betfair SP follows the last traded price since unmatched bets tagged to take SP are 'hidden' on the ladder and are taken into account when compiling the SP. I would expect this must have some effect and since this is a variable not easily measured directly I was very interested to know if anyone has analysed this subject or whether your software is capable of recording this information from the markets directly in an exportable format?

Many Thanks

[Euler]

If the start is even then it's not much different from LTP. I don't have precise stats, but I often use it to exit my trade so I'd noticed pretty quickly if the variance was much larger.

[PeterLe]

how is the predicted SP calculated in the overview screen?
is it based on a Betangel algorithmn or is it supplied from Betfair via the API?
regards
Peter

[ajdal]

Thank you again for your prompt reply, it is appreciated.

I'm aware that Betfair supply an estimated near price as a guide to the eventual SP which is probably the projected SP your software displays.

Not that I'm a doubting Thomas and I suspect what you state is probably/possibly correct, but if the Betfair SP is calculated taking into account 'hidden' back and lay trades on the ladder, there must be an inbalance on certain trades which would then possibly reflect in the SP, or so I would think. What I am interested in is whether there is a detectable pattern (if it exists at all) and to what degree (if any) the SP is affected. Since to answer this I need to collect data that contains at least the Betfair SP, the last traded price and some arbitrary marker (ie price 10 mins before off), I was wondering can your software do this and export it in a reusable format?

Many Thanks

[andyfuller]

how is the predicted SP calculated in the overview screen?
is it based on a Betangel algorithmn or is it supplied from Betfair via the API?
regards
Peter

I would assume it is supplied by BF via the API using the same information that shows it on the website (I assume it still does).

I don't think it would be possible to work out a particular pattern to the SP due to the variables involved in its calculation.

But fundamentally the BF SP is flawed and always will be. Just look at the Grand National a few years ago and then again last year or the year before. BF manually calculated it in the first instance because it was bad PR for them as the fav won but more recently because the horse was beaten they didn't get involved, despite the fact the circumstances were pretty much the same.

[PeterLe]

thanks Andy
in all these years, I've never really used the website. I just checked it and it seems that if you elect to take SP it doesn't give you an indication of the odds. I might have got that wrong, but I couldn't see anything

BA team, could you confirm please how the predicted SP is derived in Betangel?
thanks
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

Betfair SP the SP and decide it's value there is nothing client sided on that.

Here is the full detail: -

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... kings.html

[PeterLe]

Thanks Peter
it wasnt so much the actual process as the market is suspended..it was more on how it is predicted in the overview screen pre off? ie what is it based on?
thanks
regards
Peter