Slow cycle rate on Guardian

[Mattlindsay]

Morning Andy,

Having thought about everything since you helped me to my utopia moment yesterday I think the key if possible is to ensure every bet is placed even if the fav gets beat in the final strides or falls.

To do this would having the programme on an excel spreadsheet enable this to happen? Or in your opinion is this impossable

Without doing the above I think the profit margin maybe squeezed.

I've also used stop loss before in live mode and found due to WOM it will sometimes be taken and the horse comes nowhere have you found the same I don't suppose you have any tips to prevent this.

I'm looking to go live with £1 today to trial as most of today's racing is NH I hope most bets will be taken.

Regards
Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi Matt
I personally have no experience in using and setting up excel spread sheets, to the best of my knowledge it is fundenmentally identical to guardian with a little more flexabilty in a few areas.

That being said for your particulat stratery i am 99.9% certain excel wont do any more than guardian.

The reason for this is all down to the 2 sec bet delay that applies regardless if the bet is placed manually, via guardian or excel.

Every meeting has people trading track side so using the NH as an example the instant a horse falls several on course people will have layed that with everythin they have causing the price to go right out to 1000/1 instantly so 2 seconds after the horse is down the price on your BA screen is at 1000/1 but on your TV or betfair video pictures its showing they are still not at the fence because pictures typically are delayed between 5-10 seconds behind.

Also because of how people lay in these situations the on course guys wont lay at the current price they will enter there lay at 1000/1 and instantly take every single penny waiting of the back side in one swoop and thats why manual, guardian or excel wont be able to submit the bet and guarantee it be taken on every occastion as the price drifts out that way, this is the same when a horse is beaten in the final moments the on course guys have pulled the price out to fast.

So unfortunrtly a down side of this stratergy is there is going to a percentage of races the price drfits to fast to allow any lay bet to be placed in any way (i should say placed but just not taken/matched).

Regarding your stop loss for this particular stratergy instead of using a stop loss you could could create an additional rule that will close all trades when unmatched bet have not been taken within a set time for example if this was set to 10secs once the price hits 16 your lay will be placed at 21 (if the price has gone past and dont come back no harm done as no bet) if it is taken your offset back bet then appears 32 ticks higher and if the horse is beaten and drifting you should expect the price to reach these 32 ticks within 10 secs however if it does nt and starts to come back in again it will close out after 10secs for that small loss (or whatever delay you set) or maybe its took your bet but has nt got as far as 32 ticks to take your offset but is up as high as 20 ticks after the 10 secs it will close the trade there and take that part profit still.

Hope things go well and let me know how things go.
Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

Unfortunately after six races there have been two favs gone in the other four have lost but no bets taken and I would say two of the four had ample time to be taken as the price was around my asking price.

I'm unsure what next any thoughts

Regards

Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi
I am assuming you mean bets are triggering etc just not been matched?

If thats the case the rule is set up and applied correctly you may now just need to tweek slightly to improve the % chances of getting them matched, you could try moving the trigger lower from 16 to around 12 or raising the lay price your bet is placed at up to around 25 - 30 both will give you a moment of extra time if the price has been passing through to quickly and if you use the later of laying at 25-30 once it triggers at 16 it will still give you the best price below that if any are avalible.

Also something i have just remembered although bets of any amount are now allowed (until a few months ago it was £2 minimum) if my memory serves me correctly bets bets of £2 or under have an additional delay this would apply to both your lay and offset bet - so if viable and only if you feel comfortable you could try with £3 stakes to see if the unmatched bets are simply down to the extra delay when using sub £2 stakes.

Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

No bets have fired so far so I've upped the stake to £3, lets see what happens.

Regards

Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi Matt

If the bets arnt now firing at all now then that indicates a problem with one of the guardian settings, even if a horse falls and shoots straight out to 1000/1 a few seconds after it passes 16.0 your lay should be placed at 21.0 still allbeit it will remain unmatched as the odds are not going to return back down

Regards
Andy

[hilly2908]

Hi Matt
I have created and attached the rule file that does the following

One Second after event goes in play the rule arms (its active till 6 mins after it tuns in play)

If the odds of the horse in betfairs row 1 (fav) drift out to 16.0 a lay bet of £3 will be placed at 21.0 (during the 2 secs it takes the bet to appear in the market if the price drops below 21 again it will be instantly matched at the best odds avalible and a off set back bet placed 32 ticks higher) if the price is above 21 when it appears in the market it will wait and be matched if the price comes back down to 21.0 - once matched a offset back bet will be placed 32 ticks above 21.0

I have nt included and stop losses or cancel bets options only what i have put above so if using keep a close eye on it to begin with.

Any problems let me know and if i get chance ill test it myself see if i can locate the problem

Just save the file then when in guardian click on import rule and save from there

Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Thanks Andy,

It's greatly appreciated.....back shortly

Regards

Matt

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

Unfortunately I've tried your programme on three races and its not fired with two races the price hung around the lay price and it didn't fire.

This is strange to say the least.

I will keep trying.

Regards

Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi
Its evenmore stranger now as using the rule i have just uploaded for you i have just tried it on the 4:55 at southwell (Ubaldo des menhies) and both the back and offset lay where placed and matched, if you where watching the odds of that race you will see that they initially spiked out to around 18.0 which was enought to trigger the place bet which then as the price come straight back down my lay placed at 21 was matched down at 4.1 the 32 tick off set bet was then immedietly placed and matched at 8.6 and made me a little over £1.50 from the £3.00 stake.

Can you confirm if you applied it on this race and it triggered ok?

Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

With you saying that I realised I'd not changed the automation rules to the one you sent me
What a nightmare!!!!

From your last post if the bet gets matched at 4-1 and greened higher after spiking that will mean if it does go on to win the race my liability wont be as big if the bet does not green out before winning the race, am I correct?

In testing as I am, if it was you would you let the test run without you being there or would you wait until you are around with your computer before you did any further testing?

Sorry about wasting your time late afternoon, I look forward to hearing from you.

Regards

Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi Matt

yes thats correct as it was matched at 4.1 my liability on that race was only around £9 had it went onto win - where as if it did nt bounce back down and i was matched at the price the lay was placed 21.0 my liability would have been £60.

That did cross my mind when you said your bets where not firing during yesterdays races - in order for a £3 lay to be placed at 21.0 you would need at least £60 in your account so if your bank was less than this whilst experimenting that would explain why bets where not being placed for you, but if you had not changed to the rule file i sent that could also be the reason.

My advice would be to test for a day or so whilst watching so you can see with your own eyes if the bets are firing as they should also because there is no stop loss or close trade included in the rule i sent you you may wish to intervene should it looks like its making a late come back - last thing you want to do is return to your computer and find several have drifted out to around 21.0 only for it to go on and win and cost you £60 each time.

So air on the side of caution decide if adding a stop loss or close trade after a preset time suits better and monitor that for a while before leaving unattended.

Am always happy to offer any help and advice where i can, trading in difficult enough to begin with and i would not be where i am today without the help of many other in the past so anything i can pass on i am happy to do so

Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

Many thanks for your continued advice, I will watch trades for a couple of days before leaving in the lap of the gods while I'm out

When I move onto the next stage am I ok to keep the Automation running with the computer switched off...will the Automation still run I think it does from memory but it's best to check.

In all my time planning trading or putting normal bets on I've never found a medium which gives you in time updates as you have previously said the TV and Radio can be between 5 -15 seconds behind the onscreen action with this in mind I will probably let each race run to a conclusion unless i'm actually at the track

I don't suppose you know of any medium which is in actual time?

Later I will also look to set up my keep bets on the Automation so I can look back on the day and see each placed bet.

Will there be any issue with the programme if I change the firing time from 6 Minutes to 8 Minutes as there were a couple of races yesterday at Southwell which went beyond 6 and 7 Minutes.

Hope you have a good day's business.

Regards

Matt

[hilly2908]

Hi Matt

As far as i am aware computer and bet angel need to be on and running for guardian to place automated bets in the back ground.
just create a very simple rule to place a lay bet in any market at 1.01 for £1 10 mins before the off - then make sure everything is turned off 15 mins before the start then chack back and see if the bet was placed that would let you know for sure unless someone else can give you the ansewer definetivly.

The delays are due to the pictures being sent to and from satalites so no site or TV channel show pictures any quicker than 5+ seconds.

High street Bookies TV screens and dedicated trading rooms have the fastest pictures with a dedicated SIS feed which are usuallu around 2-3secs faster than what we see but licences for these feeds cost in excess of 10k which is why they are only in bookies or trading rooms which you can use for a daily fee if there is one near to you.

There wont be any issue with you extending the 6 mins to anything you like i put that just as an off the top of my head with the longest NH races usually finishing in around 5 mins.

As you view this statergy over time you may also want to tweek the amount of ticks from 32 or the trigger point of 16 or the lay point of 21 or a combination of them all as you try and find the most profitable setting to use long term.

Good luck with your day and future days also

Regards
Andy

[Mattlindsay]

Hi Andy,

I'm getting adventurous and trying to send a private message which is stuck in my outbox any tips on getting it sent.

Regards

Matt