I am curious to know if there is value in laying greyhounds when the odds quoted on sites like William Hill etc can be taken on betfair.
Each greyhound race has an over round of about 125%.
Does that mean if I lay any dog that is a similar price on William Hill I am getting a theoretical over round. I understand that you cant lay them all in a race, but there is often 1 or 2 that are the same. Over a period of time does that man that I am getting a similar over round or does it all have to be in 1 race to achieve it??
Does that make sense?
On the flip side, the other dogs in the race are usually much higher than William Hill, so would dutching all the runners except those that have a similar SP to WHill show a profit in the long run?
Greyhound overround laying value
Your idea is on a very good trajectory. In my view the issue becomes which dog is too short. Most of the overround say half should be built into the favourite. And then say a quarter into the second favourite and so on. Then you need to wonder if the bookie (William Hill) is correct, have they built their book reflecting "true odds". To extend your theory I would also look at the parimutuel - which has the wisdom of crowds and theoretically a constant overround per dog. Much like an exchange, the parimutuel is a wisdom of crowds approach.
Keep the thinking going and you will crack the nut.
With these thoughts, you'll like this site http://fivethirtyeight.com/
Keep the thinking going and you will crack the nut.
With these thoughts, you'll like this site http://fivethirtyeight.com/
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
Do the bookies really know?? I read that they have such a large over round to cover all the corruption that goes on. How could it be that sometimes when 2 dogs are paying 5.00 at WHill, one is 5.50 and the other is 15 on Betfair. I presume low liquidity pushes the higher one out but is there really such a high misaligned probability of each one wining if WHill thinks they are both 5.00. With so many races on each day and mishaps galore round the dog track, the true form of a dog has so many variables, so are the bookies really assessing true prices or just keeping them all roughly the same prices so mug punters accept the overround and the money gets spread pretty evenly across all runners. If so, getting 10/1 for a 5/1 shot or laying a 3/1 at 5/2 must be value mustn't it?
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
Hi Gazuty,(or anyone else that could answer)
I have been trying to work on this idea. If I am able to lay 100 dogs over the day that have the same price as William Hill, would I be creating a large over round like the bookies do even though they will be in different races. My "luck" on winning or losing ones will be evened out throughout the day I guess.
How do I know if my system works? Is there any way to find Betfair SP's for dogs like on timeform?
I have been trying to work on this idea. If I am able to lay 100 dogs over the day that have the same price as William Hill, would I be creating a large over round like the bookies do even though they will be in different races. My "luck" on winning or losing ones will be evened out throughout the day I guess.
How do I know if my system works? Is there any way to find Betfair SP's for dogs like on timeform?
Not got any first hand experience of this so can't say for sure, though I would guess that if the price on betfair is the same to lay as it is to back at William hill, then you would be more profitable backing them at hills than you would be laying them on betfair. Otherwise you will just end up laying all the fancied ones and not taking a penny on the ones that are not fancied.
though as with anything the best thing to do is to try it for yourself and see, that's how winning strategies are found.
though as with anything the best thing to do is to try it for yourself and see, that's how winning strategies are found.
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Woolloomooloo
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:32 pm
HI NeilSpence
Have you been successful with this strategy? Assuming bookies make a profit in the long run with their odds, this idea should have + EV in theory.
I came up with a similar idea some time ago and have been testing it for a few weeks. It's difficult to make any conclusion as it's not a representative period of time and not every race on BF has odds the same as bookies.
If you want to discuss it send me a private message, I'm new here on the this forum and can't send PM.
cheers
Have you been successful with this strategy? Assuming bookies make a profit in the long run with their odds, this idea should have + EV in theory.
I came up with a similar idea some time ago and have been testing it for a few weeks. It's difficult to make any conclusion as it's not a representative period of time and not every race on BF has odds the same as bookies.
If you want to discuss it send me a private message, I'm new here on the this forum and can't send PM.
cheers
What I do know is 3 years ago when I was arbing the dogs, I kept losing with the betfair and winning with bookies which is the opposite of what I wanted as it resulted in being closed down. Wasn't a small sample size either.
So astonishing that i'm still typing it the wrong way around *Now Corrected*
But the point is even with the big fat bookie overround there was still value there.
So astonishing that i'm still typing it the wrong way around *Now Corrected*
But the point is even with the big fat bookie overround there was still value there.