As the new season approaches I was hoping to get some advice about a good place to start with Footie trading. I have traded pre off horses almost exclusively so far and have had some success. I would have to say football is my favorite sport so it makes sense to me that I should trade it and try to find some opportunity
So would ye guys advise to start with pre off trading, or in play? Is it possible to find value odds or is the market efficient mostly? I would imagine the Cross matching has made it difficult to look for cross market inefficiency
Is it possible to scalp effectively, or does a time delay make it too risky ?
Getting started/ Football Trading
There are many ways to participate in football matches.
I tend to trade pre-off and then carry that money into the match itself. Because betfair have changed the pre-off cross market cross matching process I don't know how that will affect my strategy come the new season.
In play you can either anticipate goals, lack of goals, lack of activity; there are many different ways to participate in football markets.
My favourite market is the under two and a half goal market as this is easy to model. There are a plethora of data sites out there that will help you understand if the match is going your way or not and even if you cock up yet get another chance to get out at a profit!
I tend to trade pre-off and then carry that money into the match itself. Because betfair have changed the pre-off cross market cross matching process I don't know how that will affect my strategy come the new season.
In play you can either anticipate goals, lack of goals, lack of activity; there are many different ways to participate in football markets.
My favourite market is the under two and a half goal market as this is easy to model. There are a plethora of data sites out there that will help you understand if the match is going your way or not and even if you cock up yet get another chance to get out at a profit!
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Use the bots to be your friend. They are very obvious and not hard to work out on football. I prefer towards the end of the game as they can only hold a position for so long and not leave you exposed for a period of time.
Yeah it's more than possible despite the delay, the better you are mechanically the safer it can be, whether you watch the game or not. I really liked to scalp for cover when I started messing about with inplay, just in case my main trade didn't go as planned, perhaps you can try doing the same and see where it takes you. The most basic example of what I mean would be to lay the draw and then scalp 0-0 in case there's no goal.Archangel wrote:Is it possible to scalp effectively, or does a time delay make it too risky ?
That is actually a common misconception because prematch markets can move quite a bit regardless of teamnews, and besides, you don't even need movement in order to trade. Some markets you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between horses and football. Just like in horse racing, evening kickoffs overall have a tendency to be a bit more trendy (more genuine trends) and smoother compared to early kickoffs.
Just like in inplay, there are many ways to trade these markets prematch as well, they are certainly liquid enough.
Just like in inplay, there are many ways to trade these markets prematch as well, they are certainly liquid enough.
Ok cool
For the inplay trading , is it easy to cross the line between trading and gambling? . For instance watching a game and making a judgement, (prediction) on whats going to happen (eg. A goal... or under 2.5 goals). As opposed to trading like i do in pre off horse racing where i dont have an opinion on the outcome of the race just where i can see an opportunity of price movement at the lowset possible risk?
For the inplay trading , is it easy to cross the line between trading and gambling? . For instance watching a game and making a judgement, (prediction) on whats going to happen (eg. A goal... or under 2.5 goals). As opposed to trading like i do in pre off horse racing where i dont have an opinion on the outcome of the race just where i can see an opportunity of price movement at the lowset possible risk?
Yes, very easy to cross that line in general. But contrary to popular belief you can also just trade the ladder without using anything from the sports side of things, but there is almost zero material and information available on this particular subject.
It may not be the best example but Caan made a decent video on England-Uruguay iirc where he basically just traded the ladder (and maybe had a couple of pints
). Football is not his forte but he actually did okay, ironically he's probably already a better football trader than basically anyone I met.
It may not be the best example but Caan made a decent video on England-Uruguay iirc where he basically just traded the ladder (and maybe had a couple of pints

Yeah ill defintely try to utilise the skills i have developed on the pre race stuff
I am also interested to capture data on the footie markets. I get the impression there is a lot of money sloshing around there based on purely emotional reasons . Peoples favorite teams/ psychology of a goal etc...
I am also interested to capture data on the footie markets. I get the impression there is a lot of money sloshing around there based on purely emotional reasons . Peoples favorite teams/ psychology of a goal etc...
I read recently that the amount of money being bet on football in recent years has grown expodentially. The main reason was cited that since the emergence of online and particulary mobile...... the average footie fan punter can now sit at home at the weekend, watch the match and have a punt... betting is sooo easy these days ... Sat morning the daily specials are sent to your phone
Many of these people woudnt dream of going down the bookies to do the same
Anyway, would it be fair to say that on the massively supported teams in particular, the likes of Man U, Pool, Arsenal et al...... there is a fair chance their price would come in the run up to kick off... simply due to all these casual bets coming on... and that traders could benefit on this ?
This is just an idea so feel free to tell me its nonsense

Anyway, would it be fair to say that on the massively supported teams in particular, the likes of Man U, Pool, Arsenal et al...... there is a fair chance their price would come in the run up to kick off... simply due to all these casual bets coming on... and that traders could benefit on this ?
This is just an idea so feel free to tell me its nonsense

I would say this is true, brittish teams playing in europe can have heavy backing close to the starting time which can push it into a good value lay which also on most occasions pushes the draw into a high backing price also.Archangel wrote:I read recently that the amount of money being bet on football in recent years has grown expodentially. The main reason was cited that since the emergence of online and particulary mobile...... the average footie fan punter can now sit at home at the weekend, watch the match and have a punt... betting is sooo easy these days ... Sat morning the daily specials are sent to your phoneMany of these people woudnt dream of going down the bookies to do the same
Anyway, would it be fair to say that on the massively supported teams in particular, the likes of Man U, Pool, Arsenal et al...... there is a fair chance their price would come in the run up to kick off... simply due to all these casual bets coming on... and that traders could benefit on this ?
This is just an idea so feel free to tell me its nonsense
I personally don't think so, that would be great if it were true on a regular basis but it's a lot more complicated than that. I honestly don't think average Joe punters have much of a say in prematch markets at all, they are much easier to spot and exploit in inplay markets. It's a huge question how much of that prematch money is genuine, when you see 1 million matched on a premiership match near kickoff and an abysmal fill rate with very little activity then something just doesn't seem right. But the illusion of liquidity is much better than no liquidity at all like on BetdaqArchangel wrote:Anyway, would it be fair to say that on the massively supported teams in particular, the likes of Man U, Pool, Arsenal et al...... there is a fair chance their price would come in the run up to kick off... simply due to all these casual bets coming on... and that traders could benefit on this ?

Really? Thats interesting. I would have thought the millions of 'casual' bets would have a significant influence in the pre match televised games.......... maybe notKai wrote: I personally don't think so, that would be great if it were true on a regular basis but it's a lot more complicated than that. I honestly don't think average Joe punters have much of a say in prematch markets at all
I was wondering, those who trade pre match, what resources ye use for team news, injuries etc in the run up to a match ?
I know there are various methods to work out what the odds for a given match might be, but to factor in variables such as injury or absence of key players are perhaps harder to model, to find value...although i have no doubt the market is quite efficient
I know there are various methods to work out what the odds for a given match might be, but to factor in variables such as injury or absence of key players are perhaps harder to model, to find value...although i have no doubt the market is quite efficient
I personally don't use anything from the sports side of things (0%), but I know a few people that do trade in such a way, some of them aren't even traders per se.
West Ham yesterday was a good example of what you are talking about, that was a pretty obvious one and you can actively look for such opportunities. Bilic said that he was going to play his B squad in Romania because of the game at Emirates at the weekend, so naturally the price needed to react to such massive news. Even an hour after he said that you could have layed West Ham at around 2.86 (the day before), the price hit 3.10 the next day and it spiked to 3.50ish at teamnews. It's a good example of how the market can be a bit "naive" at times, because it already knew that Hammers are going to field a very weak squad, and yet it didn't react properly until it saw the teamnews.
That's one of the best swing positions that you can have in general, just below 3.0, because if you catch that swing every tick above 3.0 will give you 150% more profit (compared to 100% per tick above 2.0, 4.0 and 6.0), especially in the above example because that was a very low risk trade with a big reward.
Also, one of the reasons that I like prematch trading is that you can be COMPLETELY wrong about something and yet not lose anything, you can even get out for scratch or even gain a tick or two despite being "wrong". The same cannot exactly be said about inplay trading. And the fact that football has the most liquid pre-off markets makes it viable for compounding your stakes as well. However, it does require a lot of patience which a lot of people simply don't have.
West Ham yesterday was a good example of what you are talking about, that was a pretty obvious one and you can actively look for such opportunities. Bilic said that he was going to play his B squad in Romania because of the game at Emirates at the weekend, so naturally the price needed to react to such massive news. Even an hour after he said that you could have layed West Ham at around 2.86 (the day before), the price hit 3.10 the next day and it spiked to 3.50ish at teamnews. It's a good example of how the market can be a bit "naive" at times, because it already knew that Hammers are going to field a very weak squad, and yet it didn't react properly until it saw the teamnews.
That's one of the best swing positions that you can have in general, just below 3.0, because if you catch that swing every tick above 3.0 will give you 150% more profit (compared to 100% per tick above 2.0, 4.0 and 6.0), especially in the above example because that was a very low risk trade with a big reward.
Also, one of the reasons that I like prematch trading is that you can be COMPLETELY wrong about something and yet not lose anything, you can even get out for scratch or even gain a tick or two despite being "wrong". The same cannot exactly be said about inplay trading. And the fact that football has the most liquid pre-off markets makes it viable for compounding your stakes as well. However, it does require a lot of patience which a lot of people simply don't have.