The line between manual and auto is a v fuzzy one.
The key part of my yr, is Feb/March, when I think about things.
I understand peeps need wages to exist, but, using tools, to investigate new opportunities, is not wasted time.
Motivation from other Trader's blogs and P&Ls.
Yes. The absence of emotions is a huge edge auto hasgazuty wrote:Archangel wrote:Do you do any manual trading at all ?
But I am not as good as my automations (except in a high volume market like a group 1 race in Australia) because I overbet and lack patience and end up constituting too much of the market. Automation doesn't have emotions.
Good stuff mega!
I read your blog a while back and was blown away by your greens.
You trade similar markets to me, whilst I love trading cricket the games are played at the most obscure times to trade regularly. I guess this is your full time job?
I read your blog a while back and was blown away by your greens.
You trade similar markets to me, whilst I love trading cricket the games are played at the most obscure times to trade regularly. I guess this is your full time job?
Hi,
Yeah, its full-time.
Communication with rival traders is always tricky, as hard-won edges have to be preserved, but, there should always be some common ground.
I posted the snapshot, as I compare mthly cycles, and my initial post, didnt make clear, that I have tended to win £50k, every yr, in June/July. (for the last 7 yrs anyway)
This is not my best trading period, but, its v dependable.
As this is a motivation thread, I was trying to convey, that the game hasnt really changed. 10 yrs ago, my mix of profit may have been different, and in 10 yrs time, I would bet, its different again, but, if u have data modelling skills, it wont matter.
Traders need to evolve. I dont see many posters, looking like they go down that route - and that wont be good.
Yeah, its full-time.
Communication with rival traders is always tricky, as hard-won edges have to be preserved, but, there should always be some common ground.
I posted the snapshot, as I compare mthly cycles, and my initial post, didnt make clear, that I have tended to win £50k, every yr, in June/July. (for the last 7 yrs anyway)
This is not my best trading period, but, its v dependable.
As this is a motivation thread, I was trying to convey, that the game hasnt really changed. 10 yrs ago, my mix of profit may have been different, and in 10 yrs time, I would bet, its different again, but, if u have data modelling skills, it wont matter.
Traders need to evolve. I dont see many posters, looking like they go down that route - and that wont be good.
Do you trade much test cricket?
I come to find that for effective long term trades knowledge of the pitch, the weather, and knowledge of declaration totals are paramount. What do you think?
I believe It almost impossible to model the range of variables that test match cricket can throw.
I come to find that for effective long term trades knowledge of the pitch, the weather, and knowledge of declaration totals are paramount. What do you think?
I believe It almost impossible to model the range of variables that test match cricket can throw.
I love to trade test ckt .. its my fav trading vehicle, from many aspects.
With respect, u appear to have done little homework, before submitting the question. On my blog, u will find, dozens of trades on tests, with decent P/L pics. These trades are not that recent - I decided to cut-back on the amount I was writing, but, if u are interested, some of them, have some good stories.
Once again, as this is a motivation thread, let me throw in one positive aspect.
U WANT mkts to be as complicated as possible. It should be dynamic - then, re-think about mistakes people might make, and how u can take advantage.
Trading is v similar to poker. U have to adapt to your opponents, and, for the majority of the time, u make money off their mistakes, as they are not playing GTO (Game theory optimal) - basically, perfectly to u and me.
With respect, u appear to have done little homework, before submitting the question. On my blog, u will find, dozens of trades on tests, with decent P/L pics. These trades are not that recent - I decided to cut-back on the amount I was writing, but, if u are interested, some of them, have some good stories.
Once again, as this is a motivation thread, let me throw in one positive aspect.
U WANT mkts to be as complicated as possible. It should be dynamic - then, re-think about mistakes people might make, and how u can take advantage.
Trading is v similar to poker. U have to adapt to your opponents, and, for the majority of the time, u make money off their mistakes, as they are not playing GTO (Game theory optimal) - basically, perfectly to u and me.
Last edited by megarain on Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tomallen123
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:52 pm
Mega, do you still trade cricket on betdaq?
Betdaq is a v frustrating thing.
Its hard to trade, when u put up offers, which are competitve, and they are unmatched, for long periods of time.
I still manually put up offers, but, would like to automate, the copying of my bets on Betfair, on Betdaq. There is work being done on this.
I have also used Matchbook - which, basically copies Betfair.
As traders, I think we have to give up stuff, to grow other exchanges - but, know, its v frustrating, and not easy to stick at.
Its hard to trade, when u put up offers, which are competitve, and they are unmatched, for long periods of time.
I still manually put up offers, but, would like to automate, the copying of my bets on Betfair, on Betdaq. There is work being done on this.
I have also used Matchbook - which, basically copies Betfair.
As traders, I think we have to give up stuff, to grow other exchanges - but, know, its v frustrating, and not easy to stick at.
Gazuty/Anyonegazuty wrote:Graph for UK Hounds for July
Graph uses a starting bank of 1000. (Would you have quit this strategy at the mid-July dip?). I'll post up the graph for Aussie dogs for July if there is interest.
Achieved on an all auto basis using guardian. This is a good example how to win in the "long run".
Participated in 1445 markets for a profit of $1343.29. So my "long run" winning average is $0.92 per market. But, slow and steady wins the race. I'm happy to take that out of the market each month while I'm asleep.
Just wondered if there is an element of seasonality to the UK dogs (although I cant think why)? A system I have seems to have stalled this last week or so (I wondered whether it may be due to the weather, Betfair live video or another factor)..
Its a slow burn this one anyway, so not unduly worried..(Helps with et cashrace anyway!)
Thanks
regards
Peter
Definite seasonality, or at least I experience seasonality. As winter approaches and volume recedes my profitability drops.PeterLe wrote:gazuty wrote:
Gazuty/Anyone
Just wondered if there is an element of seasonality to the UK dogs (although I cant think why)? A system I have seems to have stalled this last week or so (I wondered whether it may be due to the weather, Betfair live video or another factor)..
Its a slow burn this one anyway, so not unduly worried..(Helps with et cashrace anyway!)
Thanks
regards
Peter
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I know in the past if the racing was cancelled you would get people switching to the dogs to fill the gaps. Or due the bad winters a few years back when almost all racing was off it seemed people made the switch to the dogs pretty much entirely.
Also at this time of the year with racing starting so early I would have thought that would mean there is less time in the morning to trade them but maybe more in the evening due to the earlier finish time.
Also bear in mind the impact of Sky broadcasting some.
Also at this time of the year with racing starting so early I would have thought that would mean there is less time in the morning to trade them but maybe more in the evening due to the earlier finish time.
Also bear in mind the impact of Sky broadcasting some.