I've had some mixed success with dutching and I'm looking at using guardian to try and iron out the losers.
When I use dutching on BA, I generally use a fixed stake across the field and dutch the top 90% of the field. This will leave a couple of long shots with red figures against their names before the off. As the more experienced among you will know, these outsiders occasionally come in and you've then lost the profit from the last 10 winners.
I was thinking of using guardian to place a counter bet on any horse that hasn't been backed before the off, which looks like it's coming into a winning position.
Below is the variables I have in Guardian and then I've highlighted the main issue with the method, which I'd like advice on resolving please.
For arguments sake, lets say that Im dutching 90% of the field with a £45 fixed stake.
**General (tab)**
Rule Type: Back all selections
Rule trigger times:
Arm trigger at 5 sec - "After event start time"
Until 10 min - "After event start time"
**Parameters (tab)**
Place at odds of 1.5
Stake fixed amount £100
Global Settings: none
**Conditions (tab)**
- The market is in play
- Trading Profit < -£1
--greening unchecked
- Back Price < 1.5
--Selection: "horses name"
- Back Price < back price of position 2, minus 50 ticks
- Weight of money < 45%
The conditions are suppose to accurately describe a horse that has come into the shortest price position, but wasn't originally backed.
**However**, the problem is that a horse that has come into this short price will be backed by guardian, BUT will still not necessarily win, because it might be neck 'n neck with another runner that I dutched in the first place. So the counter bet gets placed, but the horse doesn't win and I've lost my larger stake to make the insurance bet.
Does anyone have any ideas on tweaks I can make to my settings? or is it a strategy that will always carry the risk I've highlighted.
Many thanks in advance for your help
