Market manipulation
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
as soon betfair will refund my money I will be up for it... Will you be the director?
Hi guys
A very good friend of mine sent me a link to this topic this morning. I've just finished reading all the posts & they may have shed some light on something that has been concerning me for the past few days. So guys, my thanks.
Firstly, I'm not a trader although my good friend is. I will not trade on principal. My belief is that anyone who bets on horses should have the good grace to learn about the horses in the race and either back or lay them. Betting on an odds movement, rather than on the horse, doesn't seem quite right somehow. However, that's just my opinion. Although I'm not a trader as I say, traders do provide some much needed liquidity so I'm thankful for that.
After several years of hard work analysing everything from the horse's weight to the state of the track, I accidentally stumbled over something that, eventually, led to the development of a system. The system, basically, involves analysing the odds movements of the horses and betting accordingly. For anyone who thinks that odds movements aren't significant, then my advice is, think again. This is especially true of large fluctuations in the odds.
Anyways, I digress. Back to my point.
Lately, the profits from my system haven't been what they should have been. I've done some analysis and found that the odds of some of my selections have been way below what I would have expected. For example, a horse that I wanted to back last week ought to have been about 12.0 on betfair. The odds were actually 8.0. There were also significant sums on this horse queing up to get on. This was also strange because it wasn't particularly well fancied with the bookies and the odds there were quite stable. I'm finding this more and more.
Does anyone feel that it is possible that this spoofer and his moolah are responsible for the odds collapsing to the above extent?
Failing that, can anyone else offer an explanation as to why it is that the odds on some horses are substantially below where they ought to be (in relation to the odds being offered by bookies)?
Psycho
A very good friend of mine sent me a link to this topic this morning. I've just finished reading all the posts & they may have shed some light on something that has been concerning me for the past few days. So guys, my thanks.
Firstly, I'm not a trader although my good friend is. I will not trade on principal. My belief is that anyone who bets on horses should have the good grace to learn about the horses in the race and either back or lay them. Betting on an odds movement, rather than on the horse, doesn't seem quite right somehow. However, that's just my opinion. Although I'm not a trader as I say, traders do provide some much needed liquidity so I'm thankful for that.
After several years of hard work analysing everything from the horse's weight to the state of the track, I accidentally stumbled over something that, eventually, led to the development of a system. The system, basically, involves analysing the odds movements of the horses and betting accordingly. For anyone who thinks that odds movements aren't significant, then my advice is, think again. This is especially true of large fluctuations in the odds.
Anyways, I digress. Back to my point.
Lately, the profits from my system haven't been what they should have been. I've done some analysis and found that the odds of some of my selections have been way below what I would have expected. For example, a horse that I wanted to back last week ought to have been about 12.0 on betfair. The odds were actually 8.0. There were also significant sums on this horse queing up to get on. This was also strange because it wasn't particularly well fancied with the bookies and the odds there were quite stable. I'm finding this more and more.
Does anyone feel that it is possible that this spoofer and his moolah are responsible for the odds collapsing to the above extent?
Failing that, can anyone else offer an explanation as to why it is that the odds on some horses are substantially below where they ought to be (in relation to the odds being offered by bookies)?
Psycho
It's possible that it due to hype.
Perhaps when the price of a selection drops, backers think 'Ah! Inside knowledge!' and the traders think 'Ah! A nice trend for me to hop onto!', causing it to fall further.
This theory is supported by this study by Betfair:
http://promo.betfair.com/tactemails/camb1a.htm
Jeff
Perhaps when the price of a selection drops, backers think 'Ah! Inside knowledge!' and the traders think 'Ah! A nice trend for me to hop onto!', causing it to fall further.
This theory is supported by this study by Betfair:
http://promo.betfair.com/tactemails/camb1a.htm
Jeff
psycho wrote:
I've done some analysis and found that the odds of some of my selections have been way below what I would have expected. For example, a horse that I wanted to back last week ought to have been about 12.0 on betfair. The odds were actually 8.0. There were also significant sums on this horse queing up to get on. This was also strange because it wasn't particularly well fancied with the bookies and the odds there were quite stable. I'm finding this more and more.
Does anyone feel that it is possible that this spoofer and his moolah are responsible for the odds collapsing to the above extent?
Failing that, can anyone else offer an explanation as to why it is that the odds on some horses are substantially below where they ought to be (in relation to the odds being offered by bookies)?
Psycho
Hi Jeff
Thanks for the reply. The article that you pointed me to was originally researched and written by Jack Houghton who wrote the book 'Betfair for Dummies'. The problem that I have is that Hype should not only affect the Betfair odds, it should also affect the bookies' odds. However, in the cases that I'm talking about, this isn't so. The bookies' odds are unaffected whist the Betfair odds most definitely are. As such, hype may not be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Psycho
Thanks for the reply. The article that you pointed me to was originally researched and written by Jack Houghton who wrote the book 'Betfair for Dummies'. The problem that I have is that Hype should not only affect the Betfair odds, it should also affect the bookies' odds. However, in the cases that I'm talking about, this isn't so. The bookies' odds are unaffected whist the Betfair odds most definitely are. As such, hype may not be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Psycho
Hi Psycho
I would say that hype does affect the bookies' prices. For example, if a horse is 2.8 on Betfair and the bookies are offering 3.0, it won't be too long before most of the bookies lower their prices. If they didn't, they would risk racking up excessive liabilities once the arbsters notice the discrepancy.
Some may hold fire for a while though, perhaps to attract more money for that horse, in order to balance their books, so they aren't left with too big a liability if the favourite wins.
Jeff
I would say that hype does affect the bookies' prices. For example, if a horse is 2.8 on Betfair and the bookies are offering 3.0, it won't be too long before most of the bookies lower their prices. If they didn't, they would risk racking up excessive liabilities once the arbsters notice the discrepancy.
Some may hold fire for a while though, perhaps to attract more money for that horse, in order to balance their books, so they aren't left with too big a liability if the favourite wins.
Jeff
psycho wrote:Hi Jeff
Thanks for the reply. The article that you pointed me to was originally researched and written by Jack Houghton who wrote the book 'Betfair for Dummies'. The problem that I have is that Hype should not only affect the Betfair odds, it should also affect the bookies' odds. However, in the cases that I'm talking about, this isn't so. The bookies' odds are unaffected whist the Betfair odds most definitely are. As such, hype may not be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Psycho
The only people who can answer this question is Betfair themselves
Obviously this won't happen, they want extra liquidity to improve their own P/L
However, Betfair clearly know if these spikes are individual traders with lots of money to play with, or bookmakers laying off etc
Obviously this won't happen, they want extra liquidity to improve their own P/L
However, Betfair clearly know if these spikes are individual traders with lots of money to play with, or bookmakers laying off etc
There seems to be general agreement that there has been a problem with spikes over the last few days.
My question is this: what do you do about it?
Is there a way of trading so that the impact of the spikes is minimised? Or can use the spikes to your advantage?
Jeff
My question is this: what do you do about it?
Is there a way of trading so that the impact of the spikes is minimised? Or can use the spikes to your advantage?
Jeff
LeTiss 4pm wrote:The only people who can answer this question is Betfair themselves
Obviously this won't happen, they want extra liquidity to improve their own P/L
However, Betfair clearly know if these spikes are individual traders with lots of money to play with, or bookmakers laying off etc
I find this happens when the markets change to the flat, All I do is reduce stakes and try and adapt to the different markets (more spikes and unpredictable fast moves), normally takes me a couple of weeks then all is good again,Ferru123 wrote:There seems to be general agreement that there has been a problem with spikes over the last few days.
My question is this: what do you do about it?
Is there a way of trading so that the impact of the spikes is minimised? Or can use the spikes to your advantage?
Jeff
if the spikes are consistent you can put orders in outside the money and sometimes get some good position filled when the spike happens.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
There is a general agreement over this problem, probably because traders are struggling to make money. Am I wrong? by this I am not saying there are no making money at all. I think traders strategys have been advertised enough over the web to give a clear advantage to some big punters that obviuosly manipulate the weight of money to trick traders strategys. I confident that after a long research thats their aim. If traders lernt or have been taught to analyze the market to decide which wave to follow so do they. I have been on BETdaq for the last couple days I have not wintenessed any market manipulation there yet on football markets but, still to early for me to say for sure.
I agree with rhysmr2, I think the spikes are due to the change over from NH to Flat, the markets are very thin volume wise at the moment, and this tends to cause more spikes as the market can't take the size orders it normally can. I can't agree that that all traders are struggling to make money with this, it depends on your style. Not all traders use WOM as their main or only indicator, and some of these spikes are in your favour. Also not all traders are in the market all the time so we don't get effected by every one.
I may be wrong ( I often am!) but I would say they hit 1 tick scalpers much harder than swing traders.
I may be wrong ( I often am!) but I would say they hit 1 tick scalpers much harder than swing traders.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I never said I am always right either 
.
.I've only had one losing day albeit a bad one! I had a great week while Aintree was on smashing £1k for the week but since I've been struggling.
Like Bugrit said, the markets are thin at the moment, a decent stake from a punter throws the market all over, doesn't help when there is loads of meetings on as well. Like today I didn't see any great opportunities, rubbish day.
I'm sure other traders are doing fine though, especially the ones with more patience then me
Like Bugrit said, the markets are thin at the moment, a decent stake from a punter throws the market all over, doesn't help when there is loads of meetings on as well. Like today I didn't see any great opportunities, rubbish day.
I'm sure other traders are doing fine though, especially the ones with more patience then me
Hi
I used to trade euro bond futures (shatz, bund, bobl -most liquid futures markets in world) & a lot of the methods you are talking about occurred in these markets: spoofing, flipping of prices (this wiped out quite a few successful traders accounts at the trading house i worked in), & driving prices up & down - all to take out stops & get cheap prices.
Though it would be left to the big boys to manipulate in the futures markets (you would need a bank of millions to move prices by few ticks), it seems like these sort of tactics can be adopted successfully by many people with relatively small banks (e.g. wld expect £10k wld move prices in a lot of races/sports).
Successful traders adapted, often they had the accounts to be able to go 4/5 ticks offside & using experience & knowledge that what they did was correct, they knew they may have to wait a while for the price to react accordingly. Traders like myself with small accounts often had to take the loss & suffer.
However, some of them had a natural life....as some traders did their bank & account & others adapted, changed their style (traded bit longer term, diff markets etc) & continued to make money, hence the amount available to make from manipulation dwindled. Unfortunately you are going to see all of the same practices which have been going on for years on the bigger stage - it seems betfair is ripe as sports trading is ever popular. From my experience a lot of these practices occurred in quieter periods when there was no fundamental change in the underlyings..... when there was a real trend shift e.g. after big US economic figure, the manipulators were nowhere to be seen, but they wld emerge once it settled.
Not sure if I have a point, but imo traders are going to have to live with it, its another reflection of how dynamic (& fascinating) markets are, & to live with it traders have to continue to learn & change. The head start you have is these look to be old methods albeit in new markets, so the lessons have been learnt by others just in a different forum - hopefully there are financial traders out there who have experienced it much more than myself & can add something a little more enlightening.
For some background heres a quote from a day trader summarising the Flippers methods:
"The Flipper might have bids in all three markets. He might be bid 1,200 contracts in the Bund, 1,500 in the Bobl and 3,000 in the Schatz. His bids make the market look strong but in reality, he has been getting short. When he feels the time is right, he pulls his bids and then offers several thousand in all three markets. He reverses or "flips" his size. His flipping causes a chain reaction. Hyper day traders sell to get short because they are hoping for a sharp break. Weak longs sell to get out because they're already down 4 ticks and don't want to lose 8 ticks. While everyone else is selling, the Flipper is buying back his shorts...which you're losing."
And a link:
http://www.allbusiness.com/specialty-bu ... 002-1.html
Apologies for the waffle!
Happy trading.
I used to trade euro bond futures (shatz, bund, bobl -most liquid futures markets in world) & a lot of the methods you are talking about occurred in these markets: spoofing, flipping of prices (this wiped out quite a few successful traders accounts at the trading house i worked in), & driving prices up & down - all to take out stops & get cheap prices.
Though it would be left to the big boys to manipulate in the futures markets (you would need a bank of millions to move prices by few ticks), it seems like these sort of tactics can be adopted successfully by many people with relatively small banks (e.g. wld expect £10k wld move prices in a lot of races/sports).
Successful traders adapted, often they had the accounts to be able to go 4/5 ticks offside & using experience & knowledge that what they did was correct, they knew they may have to wait a while for the price to react accordingly. Traders like myself with small accounts often had to take the loss & suffer.
However, some of them had a natural life....as some traders did their bank & account & others adapted, changed their style (traded bit longer term, diff markets etc) & continued to make money, hence the amount available to make from manipulation dwindled. Unfortunately you are going to see all of the same practices which have been going on for years on the bigger stage - it seems betfair is ripe as sports trading is ever popular. From my experience a lot of these practices occurred in quieter periods when there was no fundamental change in the underlyings..... when there was a real trend shift e.g. after big US economic figure, the manipulators were nowhere to be seen, but they wld emerge once it settled.
Not sure if I have a point, but imo traders are going to have to live with it, its another reflection of how dynamic (& fascinating) markets are, & to live with it traders have to continue to learn & change. The head start you have is these look to be old methods albeit in new markets, so the lessons have been learnt by others just in a different forum - hopefully there are financial traders out there who have experienced it much more than myself & can add something a little more enlightening.
For some background heres a quote from a day trader summarising the Flippers methods:
"The Flipper might have bids in all three markets. He might be bid 1,200 contracts in the Bund, 1,500 in the Bobl and 3,000 in the Schatz. His bids make the market look strong but in reality, he has been getting short. When he feels the time is right, he pulls his bids and then offers several thousand in all three markets. He reverses or "flips" his size. His flipping causes a chain reaction. Hyper day traders sell to get short because they are hoping for a sharp break. Weak longs sell to get out because they're already down 4 ticks and don't want to lose 8 ticks. While everyone else is selling, the Flipper is buying back his shorts...which you're losing."
And a link:
http://www.allbusiness.com/specialty-bu ... 002-1.html
Apologies for the waffle!
Happy trading.
Hi Rascal01
That's interesting.
Do you find that manipulation is more common in trending markets than non-trending markets, given that in trending markets the manipulators need to go against the weight of market sentiment?
Jeff
That's interesting.
Do you find that manipulation is more common in trending markets than non-trending markets, given that in trending markets the manipulators need to go against the weight of market sentiment?
Jeff
rascal01 wrote:Hi
I used to trade euro bond futures (shatz, bund, bobl -most liquid futures markets in world) & a lot of the methods you are talking about occurred in these markets: spoofing, flipping of prices (this wiped out quite a few successful traders accounts at the trading house i worked in), & driving prices up & down - all to take out stops & get cheap prices.