General election 'Overall majority' market

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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I'm thinking of backing 'No overall majority', as I suspect that the polls will narrow in the approach to Polling Day, causing the price to fall.

BTW, as things are, I think the market has overpriced 'no overall majority' (available at 2.88 to back). Even if the poll which gave the Tories an 11 point lead is accurate, political analysts say that that still wouldn't be enough to avoid a hung parliament.

What do you guys think?

Jeff
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Posts: 4031
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 3:47 pm

There have been a few studies on polling that suggests that when it comes to politics that people are coy when being polled, but far more forthright when voting. So I will be looking for a few outside bets that will shift when the counting starts.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5489
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Thursday is generally a quiet day for sport, so that day could offer some cracking trading opportunities.

I'm interested in laying BNP to win a seat

I'd be quite surprised if they actually won a seat, first past the post isn't to their advantage
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Posts: 4031
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 3:47 pm

Did you back it? Would have been an excellent trade!
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

No - With hindsight, I should have backed it once the polls showed that Nick Clegg had won the leaders' debate in the eyes of the public! Instead, I backed a Conservative overall majority just after the debate, thinking that David Cameron had put in a great performance! D'oh! :)

Jeff
Bet Angel wrote:Did you back it? Would have been an excellent trade!
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