Can you understand in running markets?

[JollyGreen]

Today is a very bad day for me so this will be brief. My head is spinning and I need to get back to my bed but I must write this and get your input.

I'll ask the question again and there is no malice aforethought in it "Can you understand in running markets?"

I have watched horse racing since I was young boy so it's 45+ years for me and I CANNOT understand what goes on in a lot of races??

Today in the 15:00 Newton Abbott Morito Du Berlais drifted badly pre-race whereas Milan Bound did the opposite. When the race started the two of them travelled upsides one another with Milan Bound looking the sharper at the hurdles and travelling as well if not better. Despite this the price on Milan Bound shifted out slightly and Morito Du Berlais shrunk?? Milan Bound needs every yard of the trip so he's not going to want a sprint at the end. Okay so he won but my confusion is the in running price which makes no sense unless I am not seeing things correctly?

Now the on course players see it before me but even so there was nothing to see IMHO.

Do you agree that they are very strange?

JG

[steven1976]

Power of the bots Jolly.

[RideTheLightning]

Power of the bots Jolly.

Don't really understand how a bot can be really effective in running, especially on an entry

[marko236]

Power of the bots Jolly.

Don't really understand how a bot can be really effective in running, especially on an entry

Bots dont watch a race as far as i can tell they just react to winning or losing money which will make them sometimes go against what your seeing.

[steven1976]

A bot will just handle its current position. If for example, there are only 2 people in a market and one has 1mil pounds and the other has 500, it is likely the one with 1 mil will hold the one with 500 in a losing position as long as it can without its own money being touched.

[PeterLe]

Jolly
Sorry you're not so good mate
I just came home and checked my P&L and found that was one of the better races for me today in terms of P&L (Milan Bound)
Not sure what price it touched in play but I think I caught it at 48 and again at 60, small amounts though
The in play markets dont trade like they used to do (and its not Cross matching that is the reason either).
Its hard to explain; but just adding to what Steven said, its almost as if one a price heads north, it very seldom comes back down unless the horse is very much in contention. When that becomes apparent its difficult to get matched on that selection at a value price.
There are still loads of races that have high priced winners, but unless you have your money in the market before the price gets near, you wont get a sniff in. You can pre empt where the price is going and place speculative bets, but again not easy to do.
Probably doesnt make sense to many people, but those that have traded in play for many years will know what I mean (although Im not articulating very well! )
One way I found that helps anyone reading is to remove the second part of the bet (ie the offset), if you are firing in a bet when the book percentage is showing value then over all you wont be far out.
The P&L will have bigger gaps, but it helps at the end of the month.
Regards
Peter

Edit : 10Oct - Milan Bound touched 190

[convoysur-2]

Hi Jolly.
Ive been talking with a trading buddy of mine about this now for a couple of months ,i just cant understand it,its happening more and more all the time,horses go to the front 4 lengths clear good strong run ,and the price keeps drifting,i just dont get it,
hope your feeling better soon dave boyo.
Marc

[randn123]

So if someone is pushing it wrong way in-play, why don't people do the opposite? The person who is distorting the market must be profiting off it, or else they wouldn't keep doing it.

[poklius]

Very often strong front runners tend to steam before off and a lot. What happens inplay is that all those that took positions before off, starts to close, the more price stays static or even drifts, the faster closing positions come in, thus even more drift.. In later stages price crashes back in.
Maybe inplay markets are getting very thin, or there are too many back to lay smartasses?

[randn123]

So why doesn't someone come up with a bot to front the best lay or bid when the market gets out of line in-running?

[kerberus]

"The in play markets dont trade like they used to do "
-----------------------------------------------------
That's the answer to your question. If (whoever that may be - fill in your own conspiracy theory)has £100 of your cash why would they want lays? I'd like to see "SP lines" in the Market Overview. Betdaq has whis peculiar addiction to magic numbers like 38 and 76! Maybe somebody on the betdaq volume thread could check this out somehow? It's why I don't use betdaq in-play anymore. Like any fool, even I can place a bet (trick to winning "whatever the result" go to ladrokes punt a poond on a horse, get a free coffee and have a peepee phew! that's better (will somebody with a doctorate in life sciences kindly work work out the ROI on that one (BTW I pick a four legged beastie at about 8/1 Imperial then nip back and lay at 8.0 Decimal but don't tell ladbrokes). Satifaction guaranteed!

[Black Ice]

Hi PeterLe,
I was very interested to read your post above re Milan Bound etc. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Can i ask please: Why does it help if you don't have an offset bet..ie a lay bet in the rule? (Have i understood correctly?) If u had a very low offset..say 2 or 3 on a horse that u think is likely to be involved in the finish...why would it effect the automatic placing of your high figure IR back bet?
Also..have you found that this strategy works better for jump than flat races...or not?
Many thanks for any advice.
Cheers,
Black Ice

[randn123]

I think someone big trader might be working with some of the jockeys to skew things their way.

[Euler]

Speak of the devil

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... t7DaysNews

[LeTiss]

That's poor

Begs the question though......is he just a bad apple, or does this happen elsewhere in the industry and he's just unlucky to be caught?