How Horse Racing kills my profit... 10k in 11 days.

[LeTiss]

Scottydog is doing a great job, they are terrific results and your trading bank will steadily rise

The problem is, too many people are blinded by figures churned out by uber traders like Peter Webb. It makes modest %returns seem shit, they are not shit - any green screen is a nice screen.

If somebody started with a £1000 bank, targeting just 1% each day, then if you kept the returns in BF your £1000 would be over £30000 after 1 year

[scottydog]

Scottydog is doing a great job, they are terrific results and your trading bank will steadily rise

The problem is, too many people are blinded by figures churned out by uber traders like Peter Webb. It makes modest %returns seem shit, they are not shit - any green screen is a nice screen.

If somebody started with a £1000 bank, targeting just 1% each day, then if you kept the returns in BF your £1000 would be over £30000 after 1 year

I think you're trading very well Scott, doing it the proper way.

Thank you for your positive posts

[convoysur-2]

scotty dog i know your intentions are good ,but with respect your still a virgin.i can guarantee you you will have a big loss we all have had,and we all will again.sticking a p&l for not even 5 quid in front of a man who just lost 10 + grand is not very nice ,and looks like your blowing your own trumpet,the man obviously has money and makes money in other markets ,he will recoup im sure,i have lost many many thousands in the past and if you stuck your not even 5 quid infront of me i would be giving you alot of shit....

[scottydog]

scotty dog i know your intentions are good ,but with respect your still a virgin.i can guarantee you you will have a big loss we all have had,and we all will again.sticking a p&l for not even 5 quid in front of a man who just lost 10 + grand is not very nice ,and looks like your blowing your own trumpet,the man obviously has money and makes money in other markets ,he will recoup im sure,i have lost many many thousands in the past and if you stuck your not even 5 quid infront of me i would be giving you alot of shit....

If it come across as I am blowing my own trumpet, I am sorry. That was not the intention.

Yes I am virgin to trading, But I am not a virgin to life.

I fully appreciate what your saying, but the point is this.

I dont have the experience, so technically I cannot trade. My screenshot was about my risk. He can trade, but he cannot manage his risk.

Whats worse?

One of the races on his profit and loss screenshot, He lost £1,600. If he was "TRADING". Lets be technical about it just so we can get to the bottom of this. Lets say he opened a position, a back order at odds of 5. Lets also pretend the odds went 3 ticks against his position and he took the loss. In order to lose over £1600 on that trade. His back position would of had to of been at least £25,000 (stake). Even at small odds, A huge stake would be needed for this to have happened.

Now I am not stating or saying that this is what he has done, it is "hypothetical"

The point is if he was TRADING, the open position must have been huge. Or his exposure. whichever. Now if you look at his other results, they are no where near that proportion, so unless he uses 1,000 strategies at any point with stakes raging from £250 to £50,000. Unlikely.
But looking at those results we can probably safely say he was trading. It is very clear that he was trading BUT not using stakes of that sort of amount or a martingale strategy.

What has happened could be a number of possibilities, but if he was pre trading, he either, chased his losses added more and more and more to his open Risk or he let the position ride as a gamble.

Now Either way you look at it, that is not trading it is simply gambling.

In my original post I stated, Its clear he can trade.

We can all see hes making profits in other sports, So he understands how to trade and clearly very effectively. He cannot manage his risk. Fact. If his profits were in proportion to his losses then he would of never posted it. I offered the advice because I spotted the problem. I repeat time and time again. Ive been trading 2 months. I have never stated I could trade. But the advice I did give him was about money and risk.

Now I am not saying I wont have bad days, my strike rate is around 80% at the moment.

I can do the maths, I will hit a bad run. I will make errors.

His losses was not a result of maths or a bad day.
A result of gambling. Then he replied being very rude to me.
If that was me, I wouldn't be very happy. I like to see people succeed whether with a bookmaker or trading.
If he listens and looks into what I have said, he will do very very well at trading I can tell and I am no expert.

This is the problem here with traders they will fail even though they have strategies.

Anyone whos is trading with that sort of money, even if your very wealthy, making mistakes like that is wrong. If your making mistakes like that why are you trading with that sort of money? I say again, wealthy or poor, he cannot manage his risk.

Now under very exceptional circumstances, betfair crashed- whatever the reason then so be it. That has not happened here.
Hes on the path to alot of pain if he continues. I just wanted to help, he threw it in my face and the sad part of this whole thing. Ive wasted my time to reply over the internet like a moron to respond to his ways and the information I have written, If he reads them all again and again they will actually help him. I am enjoying my trading, when I have a spare minute during my trading or a question to ask, I use the forum.
Excluding this overall the forum is excellent.


"he" I dont know if it is, it could be a "her"

Scott

[macawboy]

I think you're trading very well Scott, doing it the proper way.

+1

[gutuami]

maybe your are aware of the concept of loss aversion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

google for some more info. These are 2 good videos explaining it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOX1Hn-bw1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpiGVWO-C64

[scottydog]

maybe your are aware of the concept of loss aversion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

google for some more info. These are 2 good videos explaining it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOX1Hn-bw1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpiGVWO-C64

Spot on!

I feel I have been a little harsh, reading back. I really do wish you the best of luck, after all we share the same interests like everyone here.

[LeTiss]

maybe your are aware of the concept of loss aversion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

google for some more info. These are 2 good videos explaining it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOX1Hn-bw1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpiGVWO-C64

The top video is about playing Poker, but the video describes very nicely the mental pain of walking away from a table with a loss

I feel the disappointment of tricola, because I was there many years ago. Anyone who gravitates into trading from having previously been a punter, needs to rewire their brain - I did, but only after a few eye watering losses. Thankfully, by the time I was made redundant in 2008 and then went self-employed, I'd escaped my demons

As a punter, you have always expected a run for your money. If your horse falls over at the last fence, or if your team concedes a late goal, that's infuriating, but at least you had a run for your money. In trading, to accept a loss and to create a red screen across all selections goes against our gambling instincts.......we want to get a run for our money, so we let bad trades go 'in play', suffering even bigger losses, just in the hope the market goes our way when the action is underway.

For those who are new here, you won't have heard my experience, so I apologise to those who have read this before. New Years Day 2008 Arsenal vs West Ham - Arsenal had been drifting all morning and were now at 1.40. I laid Arsenal at 1.40 for £5000 (£2k liability), expecting to get 1.42 matched. They drifted further to 1.41, so I had £35 profit waiting to be greened, but my money is sat waiting at 1.42. Then disaster......the teams are announced and West Ham are under strength. Arsenal see a surge of money and the 1.41 becomes 1.37 in the blink of an eye. My frustration at seeing over £100 losses is intensified by knowing I could have taken £35 profit, so I decided to let it run. I thought, if West Ham keep a clean sheet for 10 minutes, I'll get 1.40 matched and scratch the trade! Eduardo hits the back of the net after 3 mins to put Arsenal 1 up, so I leave it longer praying for a West Ham equaliser. It never came, Arsenal won 2-0 and I went from being £35 up, to being £109 down, eventually losing £2000

I found accepting a trading loss without at least having a gambling adrenaline rush the most difficult aspect to conquering this business.

But hey, I went from that dark place to be a full-time trader of now 7 years, so there's hope for everyone who's struggling. If I can do it, so can you

Loss aversion is an absolute killer in this game, and my advice to all traders is to work at this mental hurdle, just as much as reading graphs etc

[Kai]

I feel for your loss tricola but lashing out at people who are only trying to give you advice will just make you feel worse in the end. Since you haven't said anything about how those losses came about you can expect a wide range of advice and help from various members. If you didn't want advice in the first place then I don't know what the point of this thread is, unless you want it to serve as a good example of bad trading.

Scottydog you are doing well so far as a newbie but the real tests will come when you start trading with bigger banks than 30 quid, it's very easy to manage risk and money with small stakes but much greater challenges lie ahead when you start trading "for real" or for a living, especially if your trading style is based on subjective opinion. I know you only wished to help but posting such screenshots in this thread is not a good idea. I'm really not trying to be rude by any means, but common sense would dictate that in order to give such advice you need a lot more experience and you need to be making a lot more money than that screenshot suggests, especially if that advice is pointed towards an experienced trader like the author of this thread.

[marko236]

Looking at tricolas p@l for other sports and the amount of money he has risked shows that he has made plenty of money trading, if he doesnt post again it probably means he's giving up on the horse trading but i give him more than a 50% chance of coming back with some big greens.

[Dallas]

Thanks for sharing that Tricola you ve obviosutly had a hellish few weeks on the horses but i know full well you will recover from it and bounce right back, no doubt you know exactly where you went wrong and what you need to do to put it right and come back even stronger.

On a personal note a few weeks ago i did post on another thread how during these few weeks this time of year historically its always choppy and then its followed by a few v.good weeks before it levels back out.

For the two weeks your P&L's relate to my weekly ROI was down on each to just under half of my long term average weekly ROI, then last week it was back up over triple what i normally average (thanks in part to a exceptional saturday but even without this it would of still been above double) and was my best week since the summer racing finished.

So true to form its unfolding exactly as i would of expected.

Obvioustly you made some mistakes to compound your loses but IMO a part at least can be credited to the time of year you just happened to try horse racing again, for me a often underestimated and overlooked part of horse trading is the yearly cycle it always goes through and when you trade them all year round you get to know how to approach and what to expect at certain times of the year and adjust your trading accordingly as you enter into and out of these phases.

Anyway if your not already I hope to see you back climbing that ladder again soon.

[ajdal]

I just wanted to voice my support to Scottydog,

Keep doing exactly what your doing. Your trading in your comfort levels and making consistent profits and at no stage are you risking enough for the loss to start to hurt and you fall into the trap of letting a trade become a gamble, something the opening poster has clearly done. My bank is even smaller than yours; I just use a £20 bank and withdraw all profits at the end of the day which pay for days out with the Grandkids and I find the whole process very relaxing, clerical and just a good fun way to spend my afternoons during my retirement... and this screenshot was not a particularly good period. There was a period last year when someone's bot misbehaved for a few weeks when I was making over £100 a race using £3 stakes and I've got the screenshots to prove it )

Good Luck

[macawboy]

I just wanted to voice my support to Scottydog,

Keep doing exactly what your doing. Your trading in your comfort levels and making consistent profits and at no stage are you risking enough for the loss to start to hurt and you fall into the trap of letting a trade become a gamble, something the opening poster has clearly done. My bank is even smaller than yours; I just use a £20 bank and withdraw all profits at the end of the day which pay for days out with the Grandkids and I find the whole process very relaxing, clerical and just a good fun way to spend my afternoons during my retirement... and this screenshot was not a particularly good period. There was a period last year when someone's bot misbehaved for a few weeks when I was making over £100 a race using £3 stakes and I've got the screenshots to prove it )

Good Luck

That is very impressive for small stakes well done.
Are the trades in the screen shot from scalping?

[scottydog]

I just wanted to voice my support to Scottydog,

Keep doing exactly what your doing. Your trading in your comfort levels and making consistent profits and at no stage are you risking enough for the loss to start to hurt and you fall into the trap of letting a trade become a gamble, something the opening poster has clearly done. My bank is even smaller than yours; I just use a £20 bank and withdraw all profits at the end of the day which pay for days out with the Grandkids and I find the whole process very relaxing, clerical and just a good fun way to spend my afternoons during my retirement... and this screenshot was not a particularly good period. There was a period last year when someone's bot misbehaved for a few weeks when I was making over £100 a race using £3 stakes and I've got the screenshots to prove it )

Good Luck

Thank you.
They are excellent results! you are trading very well too.

Keep it up!

[giulio2010]

I have tryed to read the whole post here, I dont know if someone mentioned it already and I apologize if they did but you seems to have an outstanding aknoledge on Football and Basketball so why bother with horses and cricket? If you cut the 10K loss on horses and the 300 on cricket you are in profit so why not investing more on sports you are more confident?

Thats my first year on horse Racing as I was looking for other profits, as other disciplines started to strugle even more. It turned out to be disaster.
I had -6500 this year before this month on Horse Racing so now Im -16500 this year on Horse Racing. It looks like Im very welcome there.

Did i say 10 days?