Hi All,
Since I have started to scalp (pre) horse racing with bet angel, still couldn't explain something about the weight of money. There are two different explanations, which I found:
Weight of Money Betting Exchange Strategy : Example
If there is £5000 on the back side and £10,000 on the lay side the weight of money will have a 33% advantage on the lay side. Assuming that both back and lay money is arriving into the market at the same time (theoretically), we can also assume that the back money will disappear first (because there is less of it). Therefore the price will become smaller (shorten). If the reverse occurred then the price would increase (drift).
http://www.racepedia.co.uk/blog/betting ... -strategy/
The market is balanced when the amount to be matched on each side is the same, that is, when the amount placed on back bets is similar to that placed on lay bets. However, sometimes, these markets are off balance and need to be adjusted by changing the odds. This happens in two cases:
1 - If there are more back bets waiting to be matched than lay bets (more money applied in back bets than in lay bets), the odd will tend to decrease, as an adjustment. In this case, the Weight of Money is pushing the odds down;
2- Similarly, if there are more lay bets waiting to be matched than back bets (more money applied in lay bets than in back bets), the odd will tend to increase in order to adjust the market. The weight of money pulls the odds up;
https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 213-6.html
I consider this as very important and hope somebody to explain this in the best possible way.
Thanks in advance.
Weight of money - Betfair
There are a lot wiser and shrewder traders on here than myself, but to give my 2 cents...
I personally pay very, very little attention to WOM unless there is none (and even then I'm very sceptical).... Maybe ask yourself... If someone had the money and wanted to get that £5000 bet taken... what would encourage you to think it's a value trade ??
I personally pay very, very little attention to WOM unless there is none (and even then I'm very sceptical).... Maybe ask yourself... If someone had the money and wanted to get that £5000 bet taken... what would encourage you to think it's a value trade ??
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convoysur-2
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There have been several debates on here about WOM,some swear by it,many pay no attention ,not giving you a short answer but if you search the forum there is lots and lots on it,
heres one that jollygreen posted on
by JollyGreen » Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:45 pm
I will just say this, WOM is never wrong, it is only interpretation that is wrong.
There are three mechanisms that move the price of a horse and they are all driven by one thing, money. It is either lack of it or more of it.
1. No interest in a horse, price will drift slowly. This is simple market forces, if you want action you must improve your offer and someone always will if you do not.
2. Actively opposing a horse as layers see a weakness. This horse could be sweating, playing up, pulling en route to the start etc. He could have stamina doubts, going concerns etc. This will see the layers dominate and when they see the price move it reinforces their view and the drift continues.
3. Actively supporting a horse which means the price contracts. Perhaps it is the favourite and everything mentioned in point 2 is solid or as solid as you can reasonably expect. Perhaps the closest contender looks poor or has doubts which means the fav takes the money.
You can use spreadsheets to analyse the data and prove this to be incorrect because if you want to find some data then you will. It is down to simple money exchange but many always want to make it more complex than it really is. I think some people hang on to the belief it is very complex so when it goes Pete Tong they pull out the "it's very complex" card.
One caveat. There are some markets where WOM is unreliable, these are generally lower quality events where there is either a lack of genuine money or it is very slow and prolonged in its arrival to the market. You then get "trader tennis" as they hit the price backward and forward. Now I am not going to write on here how I spot these markets but to be honest I think most of us can sift them out. When they occur I simply sit back and watch, if the tennis traders run of money or cease then often an opportunity can occur. If no trend appears then I move onto the next market.
Watch the markets and you will soon spot the trader tennis versions! Once you learn to avoid these it will dramatically improve your ability to read the others with more reliability.
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JollyGreen
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heres one that jollygreen posted on
by JollyGreen » Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:45 pm
I will just say this, WOM is never wrong, it is only interpretation that is wrong.
There are three mechanisms that move the price of a horse and they are all driven by one thing, money. It is either lack of it or more of it.
1. No interest in a horse, price will drift slowly. This is simple market forces, if you want action you must improve your offer and someone always will if you do not.
2. Actively opposing a horse as layers see a weakness. This horse could be sweating, playing up, pulling en route to the start etc. He could have stamina doubts, going concerns etc. This will see the layers dominate and when they see the price move it reinforces their view and the drift continues.
3. Actively supporting a horse which means the price contracts. Perhaps it is the favourite and everything mentioned in point 2 is solid or as solid as you can reasonably expect. Perhaps the closest contender looks poor or has doubts which means the fav takes the money.
You can use spreadsheets to analyse the data and prove this to be incorrect because if you want to find some data then you will. It is down to simple money exchange but many always want to make it more complex than it really is. I think some people hang on to the belief it is very complex so when it goes Pete Tong they pull out the "it's very complex" card.
One caveat. There are some markets where WOM is unreliable, these are generally lower quality events where there is either a lack of genuine money or it is very slow and prolonged in its arrival to the market. You then get "trader tennis" as they hit the price backward and forward. Now I am not going to write on here how I spot these markets but to be honest I think most of us can sift them out. When they occur I simply sit back and watch, if the tennis traders run of money or cease then often an opportunity can occur. If no trend appears then I move onto the next market.
Watch the markets and you will soon spot the trader tennis versions! Once you learn to avoid these it will dramatically improve your ability to read the others with more reliability.
User avatar
JollyGreen
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Location: ...off his rocker!
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convoysur-2
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here is the trend,,but like i said it has been talked about alot,
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8275&hilit=weight+of+money
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8275&hilit=weight+of+money