Smart horse Curragh 3:15

[JollyGreen]

Well you usually find me opposing favourites and looking for a larger priced horse but today I am very much on the side of the favourite. I did give Special Duty in the 1000 Guineas and she did eventually get sent off favourite.

There is nothing wrong with siding with a favourite provided it is a real favourite and is worthy of the price.

Anyway Lolly for Dolly appears to be a worthy favourite today and this looks one to keep on side. She is bred to be a 10f-12f horse but on her Sire's side there is once again a sprint influence from Danzig her Grand sire and 1 mile speed from her Sire Danehill. My only concern is the ground today combined with a drop back to 7f. It's not a major concern but it's another small itch that you can't scratch. Having said that, I can't believe her connections would run her in this race unless they felt sure it would suit her.

It was a flag start on her debut run and the ground was heavy. She travelled well in behind and then her young pilot shook her up to join the leaders. He gave her one crack of the whip with his left hand and she took off. He then had to use his whip in his right hand to keep her on a true line and she fairly flew all the way to the line. For a young horse on her debut that was a remarkable run and the way she kept her head down and ran all the way shows tremendous potential.

The price of 4.30 is about correct and I can see her being sent off around 3.75 and she may touch 3.50. I think she'll go close to winning this race so a Back to Lay strategy is on the cards. I would never be so bold as to say she will win this but she should give a good account of herself and her odds should shrink so a profit is the likely outcome.

Good luck if you play.

JG

[PeterLe]

Hi JG..

Thanks for taking the time to make such detailed posts...
I've just been watching todays selection and it has reduced already... it is almost a self fullfiling prophecy!

regards
Peter

[JollyGreen]

Hi JG..

Thanks for taking the time to make such detailed posts...
I've just been watching todays selection and it has reduced already... it is almost a self fullfiling prophecy!

regards
Peter

Hi Peter

Thanks for the reply...yes the price has already moved in! I doubt very much it is just my influence though.

From a trading point of view everyone should expect a reverse at some point. Once the early support dries up the price should bottom and then there could be some resistance. I would not be surprised to see this stop around 3.50 and possibly reverse back out again. The bookies are showing 3.00 and 3.25 in places so there may be scope for it to get a bit below 3.50 - although I think 3.50 is the correct price and the value is gone below that level.

[enzabella2009]

backed £120 earlier i am already in green.....good job again..

[lilgreenback]

Hi JG,

Thanks for the info and the detail; I quite liked the look of No 7 Lord Rathvinden and the P. Smullen ride No 28 Majestic Pearl. Just an Edit down in the later race the 3.45

A couple of E/W's n cut the grass in the sunshine and Arctic wind

Cheers Mate

LilGB

[enzabella2009]

I was just about to write that as usuall the odds goes against jollygreen to see the horse hitting 9/1 but, as usuall he was right. I traded the odds earlier to make £12 profits. I backed all at 4.7. I have managed to get one matched at 9/1 with £40...I dont normally trade in play but for the fun of it I kept it all until the end.....good ( job)...When I will fly to LONDON I would love meet you to show you my respect...not just because I won some money..

Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Curr 3rd May : 7f Grp3 03-May-10 15:15 03-May-10 15:20 £360.96

[JollyGreen]

I was just about to write that as usuall the odds goes against jollygreen to see the horse hitting 9/1 but, as usuall he was right. I traded the odds earlier to make £12 profits. I backed all at 4.7. I have managed to get one matched at 9/1 with £40...I dont normally trade in play but for the fun of it I kept it all until the end.....good ( job)...When I will fly to LONDON I would love meet you to show you my respect...not just because I won some money..

Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Curr 3rd May : 7f Grp3 03-May-10 15:15 03-May-10 15:20 £360.96

Un freddo Nastro Azzruro per favore

Ciao

[enzabella2009]