Sorry. I've been away for a couple of weeks.
I never enjoyed staking large amounts of money on an outright result, trading I sensed would be a better way to make a constant income stream, so I switched my thoughts to that.
However the problem is I started to let old knowledge of trainers jockeys etc muddy my trades and if you are not up to date on what trainers have in stock and what that are aiming at you aer really blind.
I will use my past knowledge on the Fiat season this year with black type events but ill use that to trade the individual event rather than lump am amount on one selection.
I have turned things round and hopefully I can take a trade deficit into a profit.
making a profit then blowing it.........
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stueytrader
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Really wanted to reply on this, as many things in this post apply to myself.
I previously spent many years in outright backing/laying before moving towards trading, and wanted a steadier approach, as the OP suggests.
Not as easy as I thought, of course.
I'm slowly reducing my tendancy to make steady profits, followed by one day (or even trade) that blows a large number of days' profits in one go. But, I still haven't cracked that pattern. I recently had 6 winning days followed by 1 day that lost the same profits from those 6 days. Same old.
In my case, I'm not doing this for the same reasons though - previously, I did this due to chasing a green, going in play to try to win. Now, it is usually a genuine mistake that costs me bigger - I actually missed the start of the race (idiot I know) and lost a big chunk. I am getting much better at redding out than I ever was before, but at times I lose concentration and it ends in a similar way.
So, guessing my point is that it takes a lot of time, practice and self-training to improve. However, I'm taking small solice from the fact that my losses are not so emotional now, rather just mental mistakes that I occasionally make.
Hope that makes sense, as a point about improving.
Stu.
I previously spent many years in outright backing/laying before moving towards trading, and wanted a steadier approach, as the OP suggests.
Not as easy as I thought, of course.
I'm slowly reducing my tendancy to make steady profits, followed by one day (or even trade) that blows a large number of days' profits in one go. But, I still haven't cracked that pattern. I recently had 6 winning days followed by 1 day that lost the same profits from those 6 days. Same old.
In my case, I'm not doing this for the same reasons though - previously, I did this due to chasing a green, going in play to try to win. Now, it is usually a genuine mistake that costs me bigger - I actually missed the start of the race (idiot I know) and lost a big chunk. I am getting much better at redding out than I ever was before, but at times I lose concentration and it ends in a similar way.
So, guessing my point is that it takes a lot of time, practice and self-training to improve. However, I'm taking small solice from the fact that my losses are not so emotional now, rather just mental mistakes that I occasionally make.
Hope that makes sense, as a point about improving.
Stu.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1297
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Some interesting insights here. Two in particular chime with me:
1) Not targetting a specific profit amount per race or day or week, but rather going with what's available and what's right based on gut instinct and feel and 'trigger points'.
2) Having a run of winning races / days, then suffering just one bad loss that more than negates the entire days / weeks winnings.
I generally find that the smaller amount (as a percentage of stake) one accepts to close a position the easier it is to get lots of greens versus reds in terms of volume. The main issue arises when just ONE bad chasing-losses event completely wipes out the winnings or even in extreme circumstances the entire bank!
So I guess it's a constant evolution of not only thinking what went badly and how to improve, but also to consider after each day's trading / punting where the balance lies between safer smaller profits, and letting the profits run a bit longer to maximise them further.
Overall I'm finding that DISCIPLINE and constant assessment of one's actions and decisions and refining them is surely the only way to consistent profits that outweigh the losses.
I say this as someone who has had to reload his Betfair balance several times, and well into 4 figures of losses over the last months - mostly on backing what I WANT to happen, rather than the PROBABILITY in reality.
1) Not targetting a specific profit amount per race or day or week, but rather going with what's available and what's right based on gut instinct and feel and 'trigger points'.
2) Having a run of winning races / days, then suffering just one bad loss that more than negates the entire days / weeks winnings.
I generally find that the smaller amount (as a percentage of stake) one accepts to close a position the easier it is to get lots of greens versus reds in terms of volume. The main issue arises when just ONE bad chasing-losses event completely wipes out the winnings or even in extreme circumstances the entire bank!
So I guess it's a constant evolution of not only thinking what went badly and how to improve, but also to consider after each day's trading / punting where the balance lies between safer smaller profits, and letting the profits run a bit longer to maximise them further.
Overall I'm finding that DISCIPLINE and constant assessment of one's actions and decisions and refining them is surely the only way to consistent profits that outweigh the losses.
I say this as someone who has had to reload his Betfair balance several times, and well into 4 figures of losses over the last months - mostly on backing what I WANT to happen, rather than the PROBABILITY in reality.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
This is a key question to deal with I agree. If you take less risk you will lose much less frequently, however any losses you do take will impact because you have also won much less. Emotion leads us to want that bigger green, and the potential for the BIG loss in a trading day grows with that too. Thin line of judgement every day.Crazyskier wrote:
I generally find that the smaller amount (as a percentage of stake) one accepts to close a position the easier it is to get lots of greens versus reds in terms of volume. The main issue arises when just ONE bad chasing-losses event completely wipes out the winnings or even in extreme circumstances the entire bank!
So I guess it's a constant evolution of not only thinking what went badly and how to improve, but also to consider after each day's trading / punting where the balance lies between safer smaller profits, and letting the profits run a bit longer to maximise them further.
I find some days I get it right, others totally wrong!
Stu.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1297
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Well the last 3 days in a row have been amazing, doing the entire card with almost no losses when I changed my stakes and attitude. More here -stueytrader wrote:Emotion leads us to want that bigger green, and the potential for the BIG loss in a trading day grows with that too. Thin line of judgement every day.Crazyskier wrote:
I generally find that the smaller amount (as a percentage of stake) one accepts to close a position the easier it is to get lots of greens versus reds in terms of volume. The main issue arises when just ONE bad chasing-losses event completely wipes out the winnings or even in extreme circumstances the entire bank!
So I guess it's a constant evolution of not only thinking what went badly and how to improve, but also to consider after each day's trading / punting where the balance lies between safer smaller profits, and letting the profits run a bit longer to maximise them further.
I find some days I get it right, others totally wrong!
Stu.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11437
Afternoon everyone whos posted or read this topic.
Quick summary update.
I have reversed losses through trading and accepting trades go wrong some times, bailing out and losing £5-10 is far better than hanging on to a situation that by default, when it goes in play is a complete different market and beast to the pre race off. If you read the form then it is ok to maybe trade a position before the start to hopefully gain an edge in running, however blindly hoping for a reversal of ticks in play because I have traded poorly pre race is not the way to green up.
I am in no way through all losses however i think you need to recognise that trading is a million miles away from punting, and im happier trading to gain a consistent flow of income, not always big but then again every self employed person will appreciate, theres not always cash out there to grab onto so you take what you can when you can.
When theres a fluid market you can hop in and out quickly. No one likes to hang around all day for imaginary big pay offs, so i take what i can in a market that has some elasticity.
Im looking at everything psychologically and you have to admit to yourself some days theres not the opportunites out there so dont force a posistion.
Not out the woods, but hey, if anything is easy, is it really worth doing
Cheers
Fatty
Quick summary update.
I have reversed losses through trading and accepting trades go wrong some times, bailing out and losing £5-10 is far better than hanging on to a situation that by default, when it goes in play is a complete different market and beast to the pre race off. If you read the form then it is ok to maybe trade a position before the start to hopefully gain an edge in running, however blindly hoping for a reversal of ticks in play because I have traded poorly pre race is not the way to green up.
I am in no way through all losses however i think you need to recognise that trading is a million miles away from punting, and im happier trading to gain a consistent flow of income, not always big but then again every self employed person will appreciate, theres not always cash out there to grab onto so you take what you can when you can.
When theres a fluid market you can hop in and out quickly. No one likes to hang around all day for imaginary big pay offs, so i take what i can in a market that has some elasticity.
Im looking at everything psychologically and you have to admit to yourself some days theres not the opportunites out there so dont force a posistion.
Not out the woods, but hey, if anything is easy, is it really worth doing
Cheers
Fatty
Trading before race time is trading on expectaion levels, volume of cash and weight of opinion, trading in play and you trade on the reality and hard facts as they evolve real time in the event and the different markets react to different stimulus.... I think.
Reet , I'm off to do me spuds in again on a wonky donky at fakenham.
Cheers
Fatty
Reet , I'm off to do me spuds in again on a wonky donky at fakenham.
Cheers
Fatty
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stueytrader
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Just thought I would bring this back again - as I'm completely peed off right now.
(This is better than tilting and trading silly bets on BF right now for me.)
Had a fairly decent 3 weeks, steady profits, few bad trades thrown in but overall a profit every week last 3 weeks...then today.
Lost a bad one early (trading too close to off, horse immediately screwed in the race, off bridle, max loss) - that was down about half of the three weeks money in one. Idiot.
Tried to stay calm, traded normally but sods law now every market was killing me completely - just missed backing a trade that plummets, yet my matched ones of course drift as though Barney Curley was laying them all. Max losses on 3 trades, then another disaster as one goes in running by mistake and immediately dies on it's 4 feet.
End of play, all done from 3 weeks profits, plus a little on top of that - 3 weeks now showing at a loss - great work.
I know it's a long game, but now I'm into a 3 and a half week stretch that has only a loss to show for all that time and effort.
This is the true test of 'bad runs' in trading. When the bad ones are lengthy period - start inching back tomorrow, 2 quid profit, 4 quid etc....sigh.
(This is better than tilting and trading silly bets on BF right now for me.)
Had a fairly decent 3 weeks, steady profits, few bad trades thrown in but overall a profit every week last 3 weeks...then today.
Lost a bad one early (trading too close to off, horse immediately screwed in the race, off bridle, max loss) - that was down about half of the three weeks money in one. Idiot.
Tried to stay calm, traded normally but sods law now every market was killing me completely - just missed backing a trade that plummets, yet my matched ones of course drift as though Barney Curley was laying them all. Max losses on 3 trades, then another disaster as one goes in running by mistake and immediately dies on it's 4 feet.
End of play, all done from 3 weeks profits, plus a little on top of that - 3 weeks now showing at a loss - great work.
I know it's a long game, but now I'm into a 3 and a half week stretch that has only a loss to show for all that time and effort.
This is the true test of 'bad runs' in trading. When the bad ones are lengthy period - start inching back tomorrow, 2 quid profit, 4 quid etc....sigh.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
You are right I haven't got the balance right, I'm sure. However, to explain the size of that one needs to take account that my profits for each weekly profit are not that big while this one time my trading stake was at my max. But yeh, I'm working on that balance for sure. I should be avoiding this amount of loss you are right.marko236 wrote:Sounds like you haven't got the right balance between your winning trades and your lossing ones, to loss half of your last 3 weeks winnings in one race doesn't look like a profitable system.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Thanks Marko - I keep trying, and at least these days I'm losing 'profits' (not always been the case in my past bad times, lol). If I had one thing to take from all my time betting/trading it would be staking level.marko236 wrote:One small step at a time fella, been there many times when i thought i had it and started throwing loads of money at it, what i did later was if i had a winning day i would increase my stakes by 10% and vice versa if i had a losing day.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1297
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Lots of good points raised here. Staking and allowing the buffer for bad runs is undoubtedly essential for long term gains.
The idea of knowing the entry and exit point BEFORE you enter a bet into the market leaves little margin for impulses and as I've said it's the only way I can continue to trade after blowing several banks over the years.
The more I look at this the more I see the benefits of automation as it removes the impulses and knee-jerk reactions and emotions, especially when on a bad streak.
The idea of knowing the entry and exit point BEFORE you enter a bet into the market leaves little margin for impulses and as I've said it's the only way I can continue to trade after blowing several banks over the years.
The more I look at this the more I see the benefits of automation as it removes the impulses and knee-jerk reactions and emotions, especially when on a bad streak.