In case any stato's missed the article in the Guardian...
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ball_match
"...we found that a 1–0 win for an underdog gave it a better-than-evens chance of causing an upset in the tie as a whole..."
And in a more digestible form...
http://www.theguardian.com/football/blo ... goals-rule
Regards
J
What is a good result in the 1st leg of a two leg match...?
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Lost The Rider
- Posts: 50
- Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:44 pm
If you look at any major competition involving two legged playoffs it is always an advantage to be away in the 1st leg (and therefore home in the second). What Wenger won't want to hear is that this is the same regardless of "away goals".
What has always puzzled me is the majority of home teams seem to be content to pad out a draw in the 1st leg saving themselves for the 2nd leg.
As an example, if you take the Football League playoffs from 1986 to 2014: 1st legs that ended in a draw resulted in 70% of 2nd legs being won by the home team. (For the Champions League the figure is 68%)
For a home team in the 1st leg winning by 2 goals is the result that turns the odds for the 2nd leg substantially in your favour. (This also rings true in competitions using "away goals" probably as the 2 goal margin negates an away goal).
If Wenger wants a solution to his problem then one off knock out matches at neutral venues are the only way to negate this.
What has always puzzled me is the majority of home teams seem to be content to pad out a draw in the 1st leg saving themselves for the 2nd leg.
As an example, if you take the Football League playoffs from 1986 to 2014: 1st legs that ended in a draw resulted in 70% of 2nd legs being won by the home team. (For the Champions League the figure is 68%)
For a home team in the 1st leg winning by 2 goals is the result that turns the odds for the 2nd leg substantially in your favour. (This also rings true in competitions using "away goals" probably as the 2 goal margin negates an away goal).
If Wenger wants a solution to his problem then one off knock out matches at neutral venues are the only way to negate this.