I couldn't win big, so now I'm LOSING SMALL!

[Crazyskier]

Hi guys (and gals?). I've decided I'd share some early mistakes I made and recent changes that have gone some way to address my foolish, emotional impulses that invariably cost me money, in the hope that others may benefit from my experience, or share their own insights and tips in turn.

I should start by saying that I'm a middle-aged professional that has gambled away far too much money, ever since learning to play poker and brag at school in my lunch hour. I've always been impulsive and I guess you could say I have an addictive personality. Just the typical mug the bookies love I guess. I opened my Betfair account in 2006 and have yet to have a single year with overall profit, so as you can see, I must view this as 'entertainment' by no means do I make a living of any sort from gaming or wagering.

I recently started looking at ways to automate my Betfair wagering and having used the free trials of a number of products, decided to purchase BetAngel and must confess to going mad, trying unproven strategies in cash mode for the first time, and giving far too much credit to the NAPs tables and form books that I dedicated hours to! I think I saw the likes of Dallas, PeterLe, Megarain and others on here and thought to myself if they make a living from this, surely I can too...

Anyhow, having spent a lot of money overall with some peaks but many troughs, I decided that financially I needed to put the pipe-dream of becoming a professional trader or bookie behind me and put my attention to more productive use to pay my mortgage.

The reason I'm going into all this background is to hopefully demonstrate how utterly surprised I was at what happened to me these last 3 days and the lesson it taught me!

With my BF bank below £100 (having lost several thousands just in 2016) I decided to forget what I'd been doing and just play for pennies, literally pennies. Risking no more than the minimum £2 stake and cashing out at the first opportunity, be that before play or in-running, it was a way to pass the time and 'scratch the itch' of wishing to gamble.

So, by removing all emotion and desperation when the stakes meant something and being quite sure that I was going to fritter away my last few quid, I found a sense of freedom and relaxation that I hadn't felt before.

And most bizarrely of all, I found by risking no more than £2, per race, sometimes £4 I started winning. Winning CONSISTENTLY. OK, it's only 3 days in, but as you'll see below, I am finding that I almost NEVER LOSE. LOL, this is sounding like a sales spiel for some system (which it certainly isn't) but the very fact that I couldn't really care less if I won or lost these pennies actually allowed me to be 100% focused and disciplined in a way that I couldn't when staking tens or hundreds of pounds per race as I had been...

ALL THE RASH, IMPULSIVE CLICKING AND DESPERATE GREEN-UPS had been removed! See my other threads about £200 transaction charges from Betfair and Greening up costing me £98 etc for an idea what I WAS doing before this eureka moment!

I hope this chimes with some of you newer players, because it strikes me that the smaller the stake, and the less it means to you in real terms, the less likely you are to lose it due to rash or ill-thought out decision making.

Well, sorry about the epic size of the post, in short I wanted to say remove emotion until the method is proven, do it as an exercise rather than an INCOME. It might just work - it has for me these last few days, and I expect it to going forwards too, hopefully.

Images below show the run of loss-free races today, plus P&L from yesterday too. Today was day 3 of my 'penny-pinching' and never risking more than £2, sometimes £4. Never before have I traded every GB/Eire race on a card and had 3 winning days before, with just 2-3 races producing a loss. All down to being CLINICAL and emotion-free.

I've changed my whole approach (while still using much the same systems and strategies) but rather than trying to achieve X-amount of profit, I've made a fun experiment or game of seeing how many races I can turn GREEN, regardless of the amount of cash involved.

[andrejt]

Great job, keep on the good work!

[convoysur-2]

good man,,just keep it nice and cool like that,,

[Crazyskier]

Great job, keep on the good work!

Thanks Andrej and Convoy. Appreciated.

If you click on the images you'll see that I sometimes cashed out for just 2 pence or even ZERO - just because the game wasn't to make money, but rather to avoid loss.

It really transformed my attitude and I know for sure I'd have lost money if I'd been determined to get a profit on those trades. I'm sure I'm not the only one who was like a bull at the gate when he had a few quid and BetAngel power!

Slowly and softly and emotion free seems to win the day - at least for me. Perhaps I'll update tomorrow's results too if I can go a full racecard without loss of any kind.

[marko236]

Your doing really well mate for the small amounts of money your using.

Keep it like that for a while and if your doing just as good try increasing a little and see how it goes.

[Dallas]

Those are fantastic results for the stakes used so very well done and as other have said already keep it up and most of all take things one step at a time.

I have often said in posts on here to forget about profits to begin with and first learn to control the losses after which the profits will then follow

Have a read through this topic/blog from a trader on here a few years ago his biggest problem was accepting losses and taking losing trades in-play and there is several pages of advice on this thread some of which you may be able to draw from.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=9675&p=80296&hilit ... ple#p80296

[PeterLe]

Awesome results - doesn't sound much but 35 a day = 1000 a month!

[tribet]

I agree with your approach having had problems before but I'd suggest it's much easier to make profits on small stakes as they are more easily matched.Having said that it suggests your basic approach is sound,good luck.

[hgodden]

Well done, it's really great to see someone being smart like this.

I've been saying for years that there is no reason why anyone should risk more than the minimum stakes until they clearly have an edge. Too many people get drawn into trading with proper money too early and lose it when there's no need, for most it only hinders learning and makes them an easy target for the sharks. Much better to learn to swim initially in safe waters than just jump in the shark tank without learning to swim first!

Trying to avoid loss first and foremost also I believe has big benefits on mentality and emotional regulation and should accelerate learning quicker than if you had a P and L which is very up and down.

[stueytrader]

Well done skier

I think I have a similar issue with staking at times - when I go to my max level then my judgement and decisions start to get poorer. Low stakes I play much more cleverly and clearly. Of course, it can reduce the profits, which leads to some discipline questions, in stopping those stakes climbing.

GL, Stu.

[Crazyskier]

Well done, it's really great to see someone being smart like this.
I've been saying for years that there is no reason why anyone should risk more than the minimum stakes until they clearly have an edge. Too many people get drawn into trading with proper money too early and lose it when there's no need, for most it only hinders learning and makes them an easy target for the sharks. Much better to learn to swim initially in safe waters than just jump in the shark tank without learning to swim first!
Trying to avoid loss first and foremost also I believe has big benefits on mentality and emotional regulation and should accelerate learning quicker than if you had a P and L which is very up and down.

Yes, and just to show how the pennies mount up, I decided to show my total for today's efforts, all at minimum stakes!

Note how I even closed a position for a 1 penny loss rather than go in play and risk it all! I also greened up for a penny, 6p, 8p. MUCH better to do that than risk losing more than is easily recoverable.

They say a certain goal saved is akin to scoring one in footy, well I'd apply that analogy to losing. When ONE loss can wipe out your winnings from 5-20 trades or hours of 'work' then it's soul-destroying, I know, I've been there!

DISCIPLINE and playing this as a 'green is good' game is my new philosophy! And the £80+ daily profit today show that it's not to be sniffed at! OK it took me 130 markets and 60+ races, but discipline and focus and the pennies soon mount up!

Cheers all, I hope this chimes with a few people who've been winning small and losing BIG- as I did for decades.

SO DON'T AIM TO WIN BIG - AIM TO LOSE SMALL!

[guy333]

Happy for you that you appear to have cracked it but it's not quite as simple as you make it sound.

From that screenshot you have made the right call 17 out of 20 times. Once was neutral and 2 you made the wrong choice. That seems to me to be a pretty impressive amount of judgment and is not down to simply getting out as soon as you hit a loss.

Quickfire trading on greyhounds or horse racing would for me be largely hit and miss and even if I was really lucky and managed a 60/40 split in my favour I am sure that 40% of losses and commission on winnings would wipe me out.

[Crazyskier]

From that screenshot you have made the right call 17 out of 20 times. Once was neutral and 2 you made the wrong choice. That seems to me to be a pretty impressive amount of judgment and is not down to simply getting out as soon as you hit a loss.

Actually if you look again you'll see that the £85 net profit was achieved over 7 pages of greyhound markets on that day. The principle though stays true, at least for me: by treating it as a video game where green is good regardless of the amount and red is bad - the emotion and greed / impulses are removed and a purer form of trading is possible.

I appreciate luck is a huge factor too

[minimarvel]

hi skier... just wondering how you are getting on? I've been trying the GHs for a month now with varying success..

[Crazyskier]

hi skier... just wondering how you are getting on? I've been trying the GHs for a month now with varying success..

Hiya. Yes peaks and troughs, for sure. There are a couple of consistent stratagems that work consistently if your bank and staking plan are right though.

An obvious one is backing any clear favourite under 3s on the win market to place (1.5-2.2 odds). This has a decent hit rate I find and the ratio between win and place is often a lot closer than many realise. Of course you need a bank big enough to buffer the losing runs, though I rarely have more than 2-3 in a row.

Below is a screenie of today's profits from the doggies; they nearly recouped my losses from the geegees - all at penny stakes of course.