Automated Dutch Bets Using Book% - Getting it wrong

[novicestakes]

Hi - Ive setup automation to place a dutch bet on the top 4 horses by favouritism using Book% to dutch a given stake value, ie £100.

During my testing, my betting is coming out at OVER £100 - making me a loss regardless.

How is this happening? - is this purely odds fluctuation before the off?

My automation is set to trigger 30 seconds before the off, could it be that I simply bring this out a little further to avoid more frantic odds changes so near the off?

Perhaps its another reason, or there is another way of stopping this?

Any info or advice most welcome.

[PeterLe]

If you are taking the avail to back odds (ie not reverse - lay odds) then the Book % nat not be favorable?
You could incorporate the Book % condition too

[novicestakes]

Im still trying to get familiar with overall Book% knowledge, but my findings are this so far.. maybe you can help...

It seems to go wrong when Back% is over 130%, when the Back Book% is less than 120% its fine and the numbers stack up.

Im running this this morning on some Aussie races - so maybe not best data to test this on, so happy to let it run today.

Any further info welcome.

[PeterLe]

You shouldnt really be dutching at such a book percentage.
I know you are only dutching the first four, but for a moment assume you are dutching them all.
In order to make a profit, you need to ducth when the back book is <100%
Looking at the image attached. If you were to dutch the first four on this race taking the available back odds, you would win £4.75 if any of the first four win and a loss of £100 if the outsider won.
The second image shows what happens if you back all selectins and the book is 101%, you would lose (that gets worse as the percentage increases, at 120% to 130% you wil lose all day long).
Suggestions...
Add a back book condition to say only place the bets if the book is <101% maybe 102% You will seldom get less than 100% prerace (it does happen but the bots will correct that in an instant). By doing this, you will be dutching when the odds are in kilter with expectations etc ie a normal race day conditions..
You could also place the back bet at the reverse odds (ie youre backing but at the lay odds), you may not get matched on all bets, but you can also add a "take SP" rule to guarantee these get matched as the race goes in play.
Try playinh g around with the dutching tab on betangel and see how the book percentages change based on your settings etc..

[novicestakes]

Thankyou PeterLe - This is making more sense now.

What the automation has not been doing then is checking to see if the Bets placed are collectively less than 100% of the book itself (Based on your first image)

So by throttling back and setting a Back Book % Condition it will ensure Im at least as close as I can be. And by never betting on all runners it should balance it out.

Ive set the Back Book % to <105% - Will see if it even fires, as this morning, none seem close during those final 30secs - its quite random, again, could just be the market.

Will split test with back at lay odds to see how that fares also.

Thanks for all your help so far.

[PeterLe]

Yes, the thing is; you will never know in advance what the combined % will be on the first four runners as there are anwhere from 2 runners to 20+, but you can use the overall book % to gauge how well formed the market is..
What you will achive by placing the bets when the overall market is around 101% is a sense of knowing that the market is formed and that the price you are getting is a fair price
(eg if you were to dutch a market that takes place on Sunday and place the bets now (taking the best avail back odds), the book% maybe be 200% and you would get bad value odds).
Good Luck!

[MIYAGI52]

Hi Peter,

Hope you are well. I have set up a similar rule, I am automating dutching runners by favouritism ie, front 3 or back 3.

Just struggling to add, only dutch if the Book % for the 3 runners is under say 85% condition.

I can add the condition book percentage rule easily enough, but how do you tell it to use the 3 selections?

Under the Gen Tab/Applies to selection/ does EVERY mean all my selections in the rule, does ANY apply to all my selections or do neither apply.

Thanks,

Miyagi

[Dallas]

Hi Peter,

Hope you are well. I have set up a similar rule, I am automating dutching runners by favouritism ie, front 3 or back 3.

Just struggling to add, only dutch if the Book % for the 3 runners is under say 85% condition.

I can add the condition book percentage rule easily enough, but how do you tell it to use the 3 selections?

Under the Gen Tab/Applies to selection/ does EVERY mean all my selections in the rule, does ANY apply to all my selections or do neither apply.

Thanks,

Miyagi

There is a ready-made example here you can download (and edit to your exact requirements)
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=16351

[MIYAGI52]

Wow, thanks for your quick response. I will dissect the file. I am going to use it on a variety of selections positions. ie last 3 in the favourites order, I assume I just need to point it at the order i choose?

I will try to set it up to dutch in the place market all the outsiders. Is there an easy way to convert the downloaded file you have suggested to point not at the front 3 but say the back three?

Thanks,

Miyagi

[Dallas]

Wow, thanks for your quick response. I will dissect the file. I am going to use it on a variety of selections positions. ie last 3 in the favourites order, I assume I just need to point it at the order i choose?

I will try to set it up to dutch in the place market all the outsiders. Is there an easy way to convert the downloaded file you have suggested to point not at the front 3 but say the back three?

Thanks,

Miyagi

What you'd need to do is add a 'Update custom rankings of selections' rule and place it at the top of the file, have it trigger 1 time and ensure it's armed before the others are ie, 00:00:35 before start

Then on the parameters tab of that rule rank by back price in descending order

That will then sort them by favouritism in reverse order ie, outsider, 2nd outsider, 3rd outsider and so on


Then for the existing rules you'd apply them to selection in 'custom ranking 1' (and enter whatever number afterwards)

So if a rule is applied to the favourite, you'd now apply it to 'Custom Ranking 1' 1
and if it was applied to 3rd fav you'd now apply it to 'Custom Ranking 1' 3

And do the same on the Stored value tabs, - most will change automatically when you change who its applied to on the 'General' tab, but those that store a value for a nominated selection you need to ensure that now looks at the correct selection in the custom ranking order

[MIYAGI52]

Thanks so much for your help,

Miyagi

[MIYAGI52]

Hi again, last question if you have time.

I have been editing the eg downloaded file and notice that setting a book % signal for 3 runners, you use the first 2 selections book % and create a total then add the 3rd and create a total. If I had to dutch 9 horses, from that file would I have to keep totalling after adding 1 selection ie another signal total so I would end up with 8 totals. Is there not an easier way?

as an example, I wish to dutch the 9 outsiders in a 12 runner race but only if the book % is <85%

I have updated custom rankings etc

I have edited the file and I'm up to 5 signals and it's getting confusing,

Miyagi

[Dallas]

Hi again, last question if you have time.

I have been editing the eg downloaded file and notice that setting a book % signal for 3 runners, you use the first 2 selections book % and create a total then add the 3rd and create a total. If I had to dutch 9 horses, from that file would I have to keep totalling after adding 1 selection ie another signal total so I would end up with 8 totals. Is there not an easier way?

as an example, I wish to dutch the 9 outsiders in a 12 runner race but only if the book % is <85%

I have updated custom rankings etc

I have edited the file and I'm up to 5 signals and it's getting confusing,

Miyagi

No, since that example was made another stored value option was added called 'Store a value calculated from a range of values'

So with this option if you wanted to dutch quite a few runners you could store the book% of each selection to be dutched, then use that option to calculate 'the sum of a set of stored values' as a new stored value

If doing that it's probably better to start with a fresh file, as it would be less confusing than trying to edit that one for just the three runners

[MIYAGI52]

Thank you. I'll try and have a go. There aren't any downloadable files that use this new function are there for me to follow?

Thanks,

Miyagi

[Dallas]

Thank you. I'll try and have a go. There aren't any downloadable files that use this new function are there for me to follow?

Thanks,

Miyagi

Not that adds
There will be some that use the option, but not specifically to sum them for dutching

There probably some in this section that find the max/min from a set of values
viewforum.php?f=69