Today looks very tricky and my day has been spoiled with the withdrawal of Desert Myth. This horse looks smart but you can't do anything if he isn't in the line up.
However, there could be an opportunity in this race because I think the favourite Dancing David is vulnerable. Will this horse get 1m2f in a true run race? Well I don't think he will because his breeding suggests he is a miler. I have to concede that any horse will get 1m2f if they crawl. You often hear the TV pundits saying "he's won over this distance before so he gets the trip". That is just a sweeping statement they often roll out but my counter argument is a very simple one. If you put a sprinter in a 1m 2f race against other sprinters then one of them will win. Does that mean the winner stays 1m 2f....look away now if you don't want to know the result....only kidding
The Dee Stakes is a prestigious race and all connections will want to win if possible. Therefore you would not expect them to crawl around the track and then sprint the last 2f-3f. However, do not write off that possibility I sometimes think connections are not the smartest people in the world because they never appear to plan their race. It seems much easier to say "We're not sure what to expect but Fred(jockey) has been riding for years so we leave it up to him, there is no point in me telling him what to do!" Now if that isn't the lamest excuse you will here then I would like know a better one, it smacks of ambivalence and I believe they do this to cover their arse in case things go pear shaped. How many times have you listened to connections of a fancied horse that is beaten saying things like "the pace didn't suit him" "if we had known they would run that way we would have made our own pace" etc. Well I am sure that with a bit of forward planning they could have a plan B or plan C if plan A didn't happen. The best trainers have such a plan and without naming any, they put a pacemaker in the race. Now you can't always have a pacemaker and in fact I think that is a good thing. A horse must have a certain rating to be allowed into the race and owners of such a horse won't want it to be nothing more than a glorified hare. Okay, rant over let's get back to the race.
Dancing David will not get this trip IF the others run at a true pace. There is no point prevaricating, I have to be honest with my view and I don't think he will get this trip. He ran on quick ground in the Craven stakes and he was a poor second. Elusive Pimpernel hammered him that day. Despite this the comment in today's Racing Post says "No match for Elusive Pimpernel but best of rest in 1m Craven Stakes on reappearance and shaped as though longer trip would suit there; trainer pleased with that and has sights on French Derby" I cannot understand what they mean by "shaped as though longer trip would suit there"???
We're back to the sprinters running 1m4f which doesn't make sense. Elusive Pimpernel showed that he is not the best horse over 8f and he was put in his place in the 2000 guineas. I checked his pedigree and it suggested he would actually be better suited to 10f-12f. Now I know you always get anomalies when you look at Pedigrees but 3.85 about a horse with those doubts just doesn't make sense to me.Now it could be that Brian Meehan has seen something at home and we are not privy to this but as I have said before, you cannot go on "what if" and "maybe", you need to see the horse run and record the time and the performance. If I am wrong then fine, I have been wrong before and I will be wrong in the future.
I do like Azmeel in this race who ran well on his recent return at Sandown. He pulled a bit too much early in that race and I think his pilot knew he couldn't get to Chabal that day and accepted the result. He is bred to get this trip and the slower ground shouldn't inconvenience him. The other "Dark Horse" is once again the A P O'Brien entry Encompassing. He could be anything but again it is hard to bet on "what if" and "maybe".
Tom Dascombe seems to have his string of horses in fine form so Party Doctor who looks sure to run well at this trip. In almost all of his races he appeared to be crying out for further so today he gets it.
Prompter also comes into things because he ran well in defeat at Ascot last time. He pulled early and then didn't get the clearest of home runs so he must be given another chance today.
Have you noticed that I am giving chances to lots of other runners and have doubts about the favourite. As I said, Dancing David may win and I'll be proven wrong but with doubts about the trip and chances for so many other good horses can the price be of value? I do admit that when I started this very long post the horse was 3.80 and is now at 4.00. I think that if any doubts about the trip are mentioned on the TV then layers may push this price out even further.
I think you could try a LTB rather than a BTL - and you could possibly do the original lay in running? I would not want you to pile in but you could set yourself a liability and then cut out if you get concerned. I reckon there will be better 4.00 shots running this season in far less competitive races.
Good luck if you play!
