Thoughts please

[kinglouie]

This might sound a bit bizarre but I don't want to say that much, but here is how things stand.

Started off the 2014-15 football season with a 1K bank per division applying a £10 (LAY) stake to the strategy.

I trialled the philosophy/strategy successfully (prior) using 2 years worth of statistics.

The approach during 2014-15 in the Premier League saw the bank for that division finish at £1,800.34.

I covered every Premier League game utilising exactly the same strategy as applied to the trial.

My liability across every game in total for the full season was £14,331.56

My Returns in total were £15,131.90

This was just one division and the same approach returned between £1,600 & £1,900 for each division , i.e PL, Chshp & L1.

So for a total bank of 3k to £10 unit (LAY) stakes the return profit was upwards of 2K.

So far for 2015-16 it is running at the same level.

I am considering now applying £100 unit (LAY) stakes for the 2016-17 season on the basis it will return £20,000+ per annum.

I have looked at it from every angle and keep detail records and statistics, am I jumping the gun here or what?

Has anybody else done anything similar and fell flat on their face when they upped their stakes?

In theory the only thing that can change is the value of the stake/liability as the strategy is solid.

Thoughts welcome.

[kerberus]

You can have multiple copies of BA Pro running simultaneously on one or more computers. Use Real Mode and @£10 lay (you reckon it works) and practice mode @£100 (that's one - you're not sure about)(need to remember to export P&L in PracMode - that's on forum somewhere) and compare! Make money on what YOU're sure sbout (real mode) and don't lose money on what you're not sure about(practice mode) - at the same time.

[LinusP]

Many will say that Kelly Criterion is the best staking plan, the first question is, will the market take £100 stakes / what is the drawdown?

[kinglouie]

Thanks for your responses it is appreciated.

In reference to the £100 stakes the markets will take them no problem at all and given the liquidity of the chosen markets would take far more.

[Euler]

If it's based on real data and not backtesting then it stands a reasonable chance. I've found that a lot of things work, but generally not for massive stakes. Once the stakes get to a certain size then you start to accidentally influence the market and that reduces returns. But £100 should be inside that frame.

[kinglouie]

Thanks

It is real data and as you say the £100 would have no impact whatsoever, I could possibly run this with £1000 unit stakes just in the PL games and it would have no impact on the markets at all, that said I would need a 100K bank so if I ever get to that stage I will be extremely happy!

[LinusP]

Why not keep the stakes but increase the amount of markets (championships) this would increase your turnover/profit but should reduce your risk depending on the strategy.

[kinglouie]

The approach during 2014-15 in the Premier League saw the bank for that division finish at £1,800.34.

This was just one division and the same approach returned between £1,600 & £1,900 for each division , i.e PL, Chshp & L1.

So for a total bank of 3k to £10 unit (LAY) stakes the return profit was upwards of 2K.

So far for 2015-16 it is running at the same level.

Only issue with larger stakes (i.e upwards of £100.00) at lower level is likely to be market liquidity at times.