EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)
23rd Feb
Matched £2.7M
Stay 1.54
Leave 2.84
This would suggest it's going to be very close
I suspect we may see a GE within the next 12 months, as I believe a number of Euro Sceptic Tories may defect to UKIP
With just a 12 seat majority, this would place Cameron on very thin ice
Matched £2.7M
Stay 1.54
Leave 2.84
This would suggest it's going to be very close
I suspect we may see a GE within the next 12 months, as I believe a number of Euro Sceptic Tories may defect to UKIP
With just a 12 seat majority, this would place Cameron on very thin ice
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Obviously this vote could be event driven to some extent, but the leavers will have to start winning some of the arguments soon if they are to stand any chance. They seem to be sticking to stats and figures that lack any sort of integrity - and they need to prove the case to leave rather than the other way around. I've seen a few debates in the last 48 hrs regarding border control sparked by the Brussels terrorist attack. Amazingly it was the to remain argument that was easily coming out on top.
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Any of you know what has caused the leave vote to come in more ?
i may have missed something in the news ?its quite a strong move
Marc
i may have missed something in the news ?its quite a strong move
Marc
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Good question, because I'm not 100% sure myself. I think there's just a growing disillusionment with the current situation, and it's not helped by George Osbourne delivering his presention for the EU, but ultimately admitting that immigration will increase by 3million
What's the feeling in Northern Ireland?
I know many are suggesting the Irish border may become unstable in the event of Brexit
What's the feeling in Northern Ireland?
I know many are suggesting the Irish border may become unstable in the event of Brexit
I missed a trick with the Obama visit as he was only going to be supporting one side, I just didnt think he would be so vocal
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/br ... 416-6.html
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/br ... 416-6.html
- marksmeets302
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I'm in full Kahneman mode lately. You could argue that a large portion of UK voters has a choice between a near certainty of not improving their wealth, and a small chance of improving (and a big chance of a disaster).
Given the choice between two bad options most people will choose the risky one.
Given the choice between two bad options most people will choose the risky one.
The way I read it at the moment, in the same mode, is that people will fear uncertainty (loss aversion) more than hatred for the established system, so will vote at the last minute for established and unhappy certainty, than anything that could screw things up.
I think 'Stay' will almost certainly win, even though I won't be voting that way
However, as I've mentioned previously in this thread, I think it will change British politics anyway. SNP used the Scottish Independence vote to become a more legitimate party, and I believe UKIP have the springboard to do the same
I'd be very worried if I was a Lib Dem supporter. I think they are on the road to oblivion
However, as I've mentioned previously in this thread, I think it will change British politics anyway. SNP used the Scottish Independence vote to become a more legitimate party, and I believe UKIP have the springboard to do the same
I'd be very worried if I was a Lib Dem supporter. I think they are on the road to oblivion
Voting out is out but voting stay still gives the option of another Referendum in 5 years I think that will have a significant factor in the result along with Peters earlier comment about unhappy certainty.
Its a bit like now the Brexit option is at least on the table we ll take the safer one this time knowing in 5 years if things have gone pear shaped or have nt improved we ll have another one and this time we ll be gone
Its a bit like now the Brexit option is at least on the table we ll take the safer one this time knowing in 5 years if things have gone pear shaped or have nt improved we ll have another one and this time we ll be gone
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Voting out is out but voting stay still gives the option of another Referendum in 5 years
This is not going to happen. There will never be another chance to vote out. However, given the stance of all governments not to give a referendum over the last 40years, one thing is for certain the EU will demand another vote as they have done when other referendums have not gone their way.
This is not going to happen. There will never be another chance to vote out. However, given the stance of all governments not to give a referendum over the last 40years, one thing is for certain the EU will demand another vote as they have done when other referendums have not gone their way.
The Co-President of the EU Green group has joined the Director of the EU Asia Centre, Fraser Cameron, in calling for referenda to be banned across the EU.
Rebecca Harms MEP, a German Green MEP, wants to ban referenda on things that she thinks aren't suitable such as the €uro, immigration and trade agreements. Fraser Cameron went further the other day, calling for an outright ban on referenda.
Europhiles are unhappy at having to very publicly ignore the result of a Dutch referendum on an EU treaty with Ukraine which was rejected at the ballot box. The EU preference is not to ask voters for opinions because they might not get the "right" answer and then they have to go to the effort of rigging another referendum to make sure they get the result they wanted or just ignoring the result which leads people to ask inconvenient questions about democracy and why they no longer have any.
Rebecca Harms MEP, a German Green MEP, wants to ban referenda on things that she thinks aren't suitable such as the €uro, immigration and trade agreements. Fraser Cameron went further the other day, calling for an outright ban on referenda.
Europhiles are unhappy at having to very publicly ignore the result of a Dutch referendum on an EU treaty with Ukraine which was rejected at the ballot box. The EU preference is not to ask voters for opinions because they might not get the "right" answer and then they have to go to the effort of rigging another referendum to make sure they get the result they wanted or just ignoring the result which leads people to ask inconvenient questions about democracy and why they no longer have any.