I couldn't win big, so now I'm LOSING SMALL!

[Crazyskier]

Well done, it's really great to see someone being smart like this.
I've been saying for years that there is no reason why anyone should risk more than the minimum stakes until they clearly have an edge. Too many people get drawn into trading with proper money too early and lose it when there's no need, for most it only hinders learning and makes them an easy target for the sharks. Much better to learn to swim initially in safe waters than just jump in the shark tank without learning to swim first!
Trying to avoid loss first and foremost also I believe has big benefits on mentality and emotional regulation and should accelerate learning quicker than if you had a P and L which is very up and down.

Yes, and just to show how the pennies mount up, I decided to show my total for today's efforts, all at minimum stakes!

Note how I even closed a position for a 1 penny loss rather than go in play and risk it all! I also greened up for a penny, 6p, 8p. MUCH better to do that than risk losing more than is easily recoverable.

They say a certain goal saved is akin to scoring one in footy, well I'd apply that analogy to losing. When ONE loss can wipe out your winnings from 5-20 trades or hours of 'work' then it's soul-destroying, I know, I've been there!

DISCIPLINE and playing this as a 'green is good' game is my new philosophy! And the £80+ daily profit today show that it's not to be sniffed at! OK it took me 130 markets and 60+ races, but discipline and focus and the pennies soon mount up!

Cheers all, I hope this chimes with a few people who've been winning small and losing BIG- as I did for decades.

SO DON'T AIM TO WIN BIG - AIM TO LOSE SMALL!

[guy333]

Happy for you that you appear to have cracked it but it's not quite as simple as you make it sound.

From that screenshot you have made the right call 17 out of 20 times. Once was neutral and 2 you made the wrong choice. That seems to me to be a pretty impressive amount of judgment and is not down to simply getting out as soon as you hit a loss.

Quickfire trading on greyhounds or horse racing would for me be largely hit and miss and even if I was really lucky and managed a 60/40 split in my favour I am sure that 40% of losses and commission on winnings would wipe me out.

[Crazyskier]

From that screenshot you have made the right call 17 out of 20 times. Once was neutral and 2 you made the wrong choice. That seems to me to be a pretty impressive amount of judgment and is not down to simply getting out as soon as you hit a loss.

Actually if you look again you'll see that the £85 net profit was achieved over 7 pages of greyhound markets on that day. The principle though stays true, at least for me: by treating it as a video game where green is good regardless of the amount and red is bad - the emotion and greed / impulses are removed and a purer form of trading is possible.

I appreciate luck is a huge factor too

[minimarvel]

hi skier... just wondering how you are getting on? I've been trying the GHs for a month now with varying success..

[Crazyskier]

hi skier... just wondering how you are getting on? I've been trying the GHs for a month now with varying success..

Hiya. Yes peaks and troughs, for sure. There are a couple of consistent stratagems that work consistently if your bank and staking plan are right though.

An obvious one is backing any clear favourite under 3s on the win market to place (1.5-2.2 odds). This has a decent hit rate I find and the ratio between win and place is often a lot closer than many realise. Of course you need a bank big enough to buffer the losing runs, though I rarely have more than 2-3 in a row.

Below is a screenie of today's profits from the doggies; they nearly recouped my losses from the geegees - all at penny stakes of course.

[guy333]

An obvious one is backing any clear favourite under 3s on the win market to place (1.5-2.2 odds). This has a decent hit rate I find and the ratio between win and place is often a lot closer than many realise. Of course you need a bank big enough to buffer the losing runs, though I rarely have more than 2-3 in a row.

Now I am confused.

The whole premise for this thread was that you had found success by scalping for pennies and getting out at the first sign of a loss.

Now you reveal that not only have you lost on the horses but a winning strategy is to bet on favourites in the greyhound place markets.

What happened to the penny scalping?

[Crazyskier]

An obvious one is backing any clear favourite under 3s on the win market to place (1.5-2.2 odds). This has a decent hit rate I find and the ratio between win and place is often a lot closer than many realise. Of course you need a bank big enough to buffer the losing runs, though I rarely have more than 2-3 in a row.

Now I am confused.
The whole premise for this thread was that you had found success by scalping for pennies and getting out at the first sign of a loss.
Now you reveal that not only have you lost on the horses but a winning strategy is to bet on favourites in the greyhound place markets.

What happened to the penny scalping?

Apologies, allow me to clarify. I am always trying new things on various markets, dogs, horses, football etc, but you're correct about the principle of the thread being about avoiding loss rather than going for wins, per se.

My above reply was specifically about the doggies where I both trade and also look at various strategies to gain an edge and the 'backing short-priced favourites to place' was simply an example of several things I'm trying, with varying degrees of success. To be clear, the principle of pinching pennies to remove any impulses and emotion applies not only to 'scalping' but also in-play and 'pre the off' automation also. I was just giving an overview of how I'm faring as a reply to a direct question; sorry if it confused you.

[minimarvel]

Cheers for the reply crazy skier....yeah my question was mainly related to your GH trading as I'm still trying to crack it myself. My pattern tends to go along the lines of small win small win small win big loss...Very common I understand!.
GH markets seem to act so quick even when I've got my cursor hovering over a one tick stop loss it keeps catching me out
Do you mainly concentrate on scalping or look for swing opportunities? Or filling gaps is another strategy I've seen.

[Crazyskier]

Cheers for the reply crazy skier....yeah my question was mainly related to your GH trading as I'm still trying to crack it myself. My pattern tends to go along the lines of small win small win small win big loss...Very common I understand!.
GH markets seem to act so quick even when I've got my cursor hovering over a one tick stop loss it keeps catching me out
Do you mainly concentrate on scalping or look for swing opportunities? Or filling gaps is another strategy I've seen.

The one thing I know for sure, having fallen victim to it myself several times, is that when you place an order into the market, even with 5 tick+ gaps, there areother traders who put up a back price early (before any bets are matched) and deliberately wait for you to go higher BEFORE TAKING THAT HIGHER PRICE and trying to sell it fast for 2-3 ticks higher.

Be very careful when blindly offering back prices, even when the gaps are huge.I find this is almost always on the favourite and so often get my lay bets matched but then can't get back off for even the same price as it seems to shorten SO FAST.

I hope this makes sense to you and can avoid the traps I've fallen into! Personally on the win market I look for offering early prices then get out after 1-2 trades mostly as the 5 tick minimum gaps disappear fast on the first 2-3 priced dogs and you can often get caught holding the baby.

There is also very little trading on the outsiders I find, (85%+ of the book is on the first 3) so you might lay at 3s but never get a back bet matched before the off which is only ever a few minutes later...

Generally, as soon as I get green, I'm out and on to the next race, ragardless of how little the amount. Better that than get caught with a position where the price has shortened and you can't get off. In those cases, I rarely 'red-up' but rather use whatever green there is on the other dogs to at least minimise my liability at whatever odds I can get before the off. At least I have 5/6 dogs then running for me and minimal losses if they come in (though effectively no profit regardless who wins).

[Crazyskier]

An almost loss-free card today (just pinching pennies to test strategies).

The only real loss was a horse that went from 2nd to 5th AFTER the last fence to screw my 4 to place bet.

Thought I'd share, plus the same penny-pinching (focusing on loss-avoidance) on the dogs too, for those interested.

[Akindwurd]

You're absolutely right that the stress of risking large stakes can lead to irrational behaviour and that using minimal stakes lets the trader focus on being more objective. "It's only 2 quid" means we don't invest our egos (much) in the outcome. That makes it easier to accept that we were wrong and to get out of a bad trade for a small loss.

However, it can also make it easier to let a losing trade go in-play. It's only 2 quid, after all. Which you seem to be doing quite a lot. Is this rational? We all know what happens when you start letting 200-quid trades go in-play regularly.

[Crazyskier]

You're absolutely right that the stress of risking large stakes can lead to irrational behaviour and that using minimal stakes lets the trader focus on being more objective. "It's only 2 quid" means we don't invest our egos (much) in the outcome. That makes it easier to accept that we were wrong and to get out of a bad trade for a small loss.

However, it can also make it easier to let a losing trade go in-play. It's only 2 quid, after all. Which you seem to be doing quite a lot. Is this rational? We all know what happens when you start letting 200-quid trades go in-play regularly.

No I AM accepting the loss, the IP element on a losing trade would be where all green is invested in the losing runner to MITIGATE that loss, for example leaving me with 5/6 dogs running to 2p profit and just the one with 20-30p in this scenario.

t's a half-way house to accepting a -17p red-up if you will and often allows a poor trade to still end up green, hence my many loss-free runs of 10-15+ races...

Don't get me wrong, if it's a tuppence or fourpence, I'll happily red-up and move on, but where you've laid at 4s and now that dog (or horse) is under 3s, I often finding a manual BACK bet at those short odds just before the off, for 2p less than the green on the other dogs/horses can be a shrewd way of negating loss while minimising the liability carried IP. The focus changes to damage limitation and accepting a minimal return if any of the 5/6 dogs do manage to beat the favourite (often the case) which is the whole point of this thread - to explore ways to get loss-free streaks, albeit at small profits and negligible losses when they do occur, which is inevitable in the longer term.

I hope this makes sense and gives some food for thought, I'm only stating what at least seems to work for me, especially on the dogs; clearly we all must make our decisions what to do with potential losses immediately prior to the off.

[minimarvel]

Cheers for the reply crazy skier....yeah my question was mainly related to your GH trading as I'm still trying to crack it myself. My pattern tends to go along the lines of small win small win small win big loss...Very common I understand!.
GH markets seem to act so quick even when I've got my cursor hovering over a one tick stop loss it keeps catching me out
Do you mainly concentrate on scalping or look for swing opportunities? Or filling gaps is another strategy I've seen.

The one thing I know for sure, having fallen victim to it myself several times, is that when you place an order into the market, even with 5 tick+ gaps, there areother traders who put up a back price early (before any bets are matched) and deliberately wait for you to go higher BEFORE TAKING THAT HIGHER PRICE and trying to sell it fast for 2-3 ticks higher.

Be very careful when blindly offering back prices, even when the gaps are huge.I find this is almost always on the favourite and so often get my lay bets matched but then can't get back off for even the same price as it seems to shorten SO FAST.

I hope this makes sense to you and can avoid the traps I've fallen into! Personally on the win market I look for offering early prices then get out after 1-2 trades mostly as the 5 tick minimum gaps disappear fast on the first 2-3 priced dogs and you can often get caught holding the baby.

There is also very little trading on the outsiders I find, (85%+ of the book is on the first 3) so you might lay at 3s but never get a back bet matched before the off which is only ever a few minutes later...

Generally, as soon as I get green, I'm out and on to the next race, ragardless of how little the amount. Better that than get caught with a position where the price has shortened and you can't get off. In those cases, I rarely 'red-up' but rather use whatever green there is on the other dogs to at least minimise my liability at whatever odds I can get before the off. At least I have 5/6 dogs then running for me and minimal losses if they come in (though effectively no profit regardless who wins).

thanks again for the advice...are you going to start upping your stakes soon as you sound like you are getting some consistency? for each profit or loss on each race are they generally just the one trade or a combination of many over several dogs?
a lot of the time when I get into a green position I think "lets try and get some more" and that inevitably goes the wrong way and leaves me in the red. and If you close a trade at a loss do you simply move to the next race or look for another opportunity in the same race?

[andrejt]

@CrazySkier

Any chance you make a video trading dogs (maybe a couple of markets)?

[Crazyskier]

@CrazySkier

Any chance you make a video trading dogs (maybe a couple of markets)?

Hmm, not sure I really want to start that, but for what it's worth I can show you today's penny-pinching from the gee-gees.

I had only 5 losing markets (place and win) for the whole of today's card - all at penny stakes of course. You'll note my cash-outs for 5p, 8p and even a PENNY - all to avoid loss. These pennies add up to over £15 nett profit, so the penny-pinching 'avoid loss' mentality does work, it's just taking an age to get to a position where I can increase stakes as a flat % of bank. Slowly slowly catchy the monkey...

I did the dogs last night and actually lost £2.51, just couldn't seem to get it right, so many outsiders won at 11/1 LOL. I've no energy to do again tonight but will post when I do if you wish. How are you getting on?