Effect of Early Goal

[jonnyg]

Haugesund 1-0 HT

8/11 5/2 9/2

over 2.5 is offered at 5/6 < should be around 6/4

Huag 2nd goal = 15/8 no 2nd goal = 7/2 , Rosenberg 2nd goal = 5/6

In the Table below I have added the last 44 games in Norway Tippeligaen where the home team, opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-0 Half time , and 41% ended over 2.5 goals

The home teams won 70%, 23% ended a draw and the away teams won 7%

23% of the games in the table below followed the pathway to 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band.

data correct to May 1st 2017

still 1-0 on 73 minutes

[jonnyg]

key point < Norway Tipp in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-0 HT > 2-0 will be more likely then > 1-1 = lowered expectation of the away team fighting back in the 2nd half = survival analysis >

Image result for survival analysisen.wikipedia.org
Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

my wife keeps threatening to divorce me > i am a survivor

the event that I have been looking at is the opening goal in a game of football to define the ability of a team re holding that advantage >

[jonnyg]

keep an eye on the 2 early away goal games in Norway 1st Div if 0-1 HT <

last 40 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes Norway 1st Div

52.5% over 2.5 goals = 10/11

6-11-23 < AWAY TEAMS WON 57.5%

GAME PATHWAY

8/40 0-1 FT

17/40 > 1-1 < 12/17 WENT TO 1-1 WITH THE FIGHTBACK GOAL IN THE 46-70 MINUTES TIME BAND

15/40 > 0-2

Ranheim 0-1 HT

11/2 11/4 8/15

over 2.5 is offered at 5/6

Ranheim to score 2nd goal at Evens , No 2nd goal at 7/2 , Monj 2nd goal at 6/4


= zero edge as prices at HT look spot on >

> 1-1

[jonnyg]

hope you have enjoyed the analysis this afternoon < at a super high level > I think to keep everyone happy I will probably keep the in play analysis to maybe once a month or so > I have such a massive data bank that I feel some people will find my analysis overwhelming <

If it can be automated then a massive bonus >

[jonnyg]

I can see what I consider a pricing error in the Huagesund game <


Rosenberg are offered at 4/5 to score goal 2 when the home team given the events of the first half are just as likely / i would say more likely to score goal 2 <

I have looked at 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in most leagues around the globe <

in many leagues > 1-1 in 46-70 is not common at all < so in that time period as time decays > 2-0 will be far more likely then > 1-1

Rosenberg did not go > 1-1 in 46-70 time band

and on 71 are now 15/8 to score goal 2

on 83 rosenborg are offered at 5/1 to score goal 2

[jonnyg]

this is a key point < why were Rosenborg priced so short to score goal 2 < incredibly I have the answer < hang on >

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal “

the above comment is in effect how the in play betting algorithm is set up < you will have betting affiliates advising Rosenberg dnb / to score 2nd goal etc <

[jonnyg]

Haugesund 1-0 HT

8/11 5/2 9/2

over 2.5 is offered at 5/6 < should be around 6/4

Huag 2nd goal = 15/8 no 2nd goal = 7/2 , Rosenberg 2nd goal = 5/6

In the Table below I have added the last 44 games in Norway Tippeligaen where the home team, opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-0 Half time , and 41% ended over 2.5 goals

The home teams won 70%, 23% ended a draw and the away teams won 7%

23% of the games in the table below followed the pathway to 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band.

data correct to May 1st 2017

still 1-0 on 73 minutes

in effect how likely were Rosenberg to fight back given the events of the first half = survival analysis < the betting industry had much higher hopes of a fightback then they should have because of the first half events >

[jonnyg]

Will provide a summary of the in play analysis this afternoon

1. we had that game in Korea < away fightback > 1-1 in 2nd half < 1-0 HT > with lowered expectation of an away win < FT 2-1

2. HJK game < market had much higher expectation of over 2.5 goals at HT and HJK winning the 2nd half given the events of first half <

3, the market at Ht has Rosenborg at a much higher expectation of scoring goal 2 = survival analysis < given the first half events >

very solid afternoon < dont worry about my image < I am retired

[jonnyg]

very pleasing afternoon > hope you enjoyed it < as a point of interest because I am reading a book on artificial intelligence < is it possible that the betting industry in play algorithm is not as sophisticated as the majority of people believe ??

[jonnyg]

I can see what I consider a pricing error in the Huagesund game <


Rosenberg are offered at 4/5 to score goal 2 when the home team given the events of the first half are just as likely / i would say more likely to score goal 2 <

I have looked at 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in most leagues around the globe <

in many leagues > 1-1 in 46-70 is not common at all < so in that time period as time decays > 2-0 will be far more likely then > 1-1

Rosenberg did not go > 1-1 in 46-70 time band

and on 71 are now 15/8 to score goal 2
[/quote]

on 83 rosenborg are offered at 5/1 to score goal 2
[/quote]

FT 1-0 > spot on

[jonnyg]

Posted on: September 12th, 2015
In the table below I have added the last 26 games in the Korea K League Classic where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band, 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 19% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 38.5%, 38.5% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%


Jeju Utd away fightback 10/3 Evens 2/1

on 60 minutes over 2.5 is offered at 1/2

in this profile in K league < you will see lowered expectation of an away win so we can see in theory that Jeju should not be fav at 1-1
over 3.5 goals in this profile in K league will be a rare event >

0n 69 > 7/2 5/6 12/5 < it is Jeju that should be around 7/2

bet advice < at 1-1 Gangwon draw no bet at 6/5

2-1

FT 2-1

bet advice at 1-1 > Gangwon draw no bet @6/5 Won

SPOT on

[jonnyg]

KuPs 0-1 HT

28/1 11/2 1/7

over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8

HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger


why ?

0n 63 minutes over 2.5 is now offered at 12/5 with HJK now offered at 7/5 to win 2nd half

on 72 over 2.5 is offered at 4/1 with HJK to win 2nd half at 7/4

on 78 HJK are now offered at 9/4 to win 2nd half

SPOT ON

[jonnyg]

I find football data and analysis better then sex so naturally you may not share my passion for football data and analysis > probably the most trolled football data and analyst in the history of social media <

on a serious note < football data and analysis in general is at a really weak level < I fear for the young people that have an interest in football data and analytics > things can only get better ???

[jonnyg]

Newells 1-0 HT

In the table below I have added the last 55 games in Argentina Primera ( regular season ) where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 38% ended over 2.5 goals

44-7-4 < the home teams won 80%

9/55 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/9 ended 1-1.

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game

Trading Strategy

In Argentina Primera in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

1-0 half time to the home team in Argentina Primera added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.

data correct to March 27th 2017

[jonnyg]

would your jaw drop if I told you > since 2011-2012 in the Premier League > 1-0 HT to home team 0-10 minutes > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46--70 minutes and only 2 games ended 1-1 FT ?