£25 a day - A beginner's journey

[Kai]

Save yourself some time. This is what I have learned in the last six weeks.

Simple random laying of outsiders doesn't work, you eventually run into a high priced dobbin that wins and you give back any past winnings plus some on top.

Laying the favourite doesn't work, its a maths thing, there's plenty on the net about that particular strategy.

Dutching half the field up to say 25 odds doesn't work either because a when high priced outsider, that you haven't backed, comes in (often in 2 races a day) you lose much, much more than you can win. You can limit this by avoiding certain races but still the strategy is a loser.

Dutching the whole field by backing at the Lay price doesn't work because you rarely get the whole book filled at the expected price. If you do it too late the market is too volatile, if you go early there is no activity and there's no-one to match all your bets.Vice Versa for Bookmaking by laying the field at the back price for the same reason.

Laying an outsider before the off and using the in-play trader to Back out in play doesn't work because once again every now and then the blighter runs its heart out and wins, obliterating your past successes. So you place a stop to protect yourself only for it to get taken just before the horse falls on its backside so then you still lose when you should have won on top of your normal losses.

Automated scalping doesn't work, the video on BetAngel TV makes it look a breeze but it doesn't happen like that in the real world. You always lose more than you win.

Using WOM doesn't work despite what some betting books say, maybe it did when Betfair was new, but it certainly doesn't now.(See my other recent thread)

No-one will actually tell you what DOES work, mainly because practically no-one on this forum, that doesn't work for Bet Angel, actually makes any serious money.(OK, there must be a few, but very few).

Just because someone does a lot of posts doesn't mean they are an expert, except perhaps in making forum posts.

I will tell you that I am making some profit trading odds using the charts but even then its only very tiny amounts although I am only using small stakes.

I believe I read somewhere that Betfair say that 98% of their accounts run at a loss.

So in conclusion, making £25 a day will be hard, very hard indeed. If it were easy the market couldn't exist.

I think with this game there's just so much to go at and multiple ways to attack it, that it has become overwhelming for a beginner.

Yeah, you just have to stick with one thing until it works no matter how tempting it is to try something else soon as the 1st thing fails.

Just look at how many different things the poster you quoted there tried in a mere six weeks.

[ShaunWhite]

So is automation the best/easiest way to get the necessary separation to stop the boom bust cycle. Asking for a friend.

A decent strategy and sensible money management is the key to stopping the boom bust cycle. Doesn't matter if it's auto or manual.

[ShaunWhite]

Save yourself some time. This is what I have learned in the last six weeks.

Simple random laying of outsiders doesn't work

Laying the favourite doesn't work

Dutching half the field up to say 25 odds doesn't work

Dutching the whole field by backing at the Lay price doesn't work

Laying an outsider before the off and using the in-play trader to Back out in play doesn't work

Automated scalping doesn't work.

Using WOM doesn't work

No-one will actually tell you what DOES work, mainly because practically no-one on this forum, that doesn't work for Bet Angel, actually makes any serious money.(OK, there must be a few, but very few).

They all 'work' but nothing will work everywhere all the time unless you're selective. How did you choose the races and horses to bet on? It's no secret that taken at random the exchange prices are efficient so
'random laying' or whatever was never going to work.

But taking something like 'wom' were you using the default weightings and depths everyone has been trying for the last 20yrs, or did you try to find the parameters that suited the markets you chose to apply it to?

And the Dutching, that's just the name for betting on >1 horse with a level outcome, what did you do to select what you were betting on?

And generally what did you do to weed out the good value bets from the poor value bets?

The bottom line is that you've learned some ways to execute bets, but there's no sign of any strategy behind any of them.

[ruthlessimon]

Imo true edges are generally logical and on the extremities of the obvious.

[Kai]

I'm a terrible coder, but please be like Newbert

Code: Select all

Noobert : Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => move on
          Fail => give up

Code: Select all

Newbert : Fail => megafail => fail => fail => ouch => fail => succeed? => nah => fail => fail => succeed?! => dammit => fail => hmm => what if => fail => wait => omg => fail => SUCCEED!

[ShaunWhite]

Imo true edges are generally logical and on the extremities of the obvious.

"extremities of the obvious". It's poetic and would definately sell TED talk tickets or a book..... but I haven't got a clue what that means

[ruthlessimon]

Imo true edges are generally logical and on the extremities of the obvious.

"extremities of the obvious". It's poetic and would definately sell TED talk tickets or a book..... but I haven't got a clue what that means

It’s basically what you said tbh. Frogmella started with some ideas, ran quick tests, and ruled them out one by one. But enduring edges have to be subtle - anything obvious will arbed out quick. Saying “laying the favourite doesn’t work” is a huge oversimplification. The “extremities of the obvious” idea fits here: if Frogmella identifies a subset of favourites where laying works — and the logic is solid — there’s a good chance that same logic can be flipped. Suddenly, you might find that backing the favourite works too

[ShaunWhite]

Identifies a subset of favourites where laying works.

.... and to do that you need value, and the next realisation is why confine yourself to the favourite?
But all that price EV is really hard and I think most are better off using moves to create the value.

[ruthlessimon]

Identifies a subset of favourites where laying works.

.... and to do that you need value, and the next realisation is why confine yourself to the favourite?
But all that price EV is really hard and I think most are better off using moves to create the value.

Maybe the subset of lays that work don't even need the fav as a label. i.e. the conditions for bad value just tend to show up more often on the fav

[ShaunWhite]

i.e. the conditions for bad value just tend to show up more often on the fav

Nope, slightly the opposite, fav has the most eyes on it, constraining the worst of the mispricings. Meanwhile longer horses get pushed around to balance the book largely unnoticed. The only thing the fav has got in it's favour is more money.

[csewell1987]

Coincidentally or not, this is exactly what happened to me.

When I first started out trying to trade full time, very early on I lost £2.5k unexpectedly in one market.
...

Interesting, James. Was it a Aus horseracing market?

No, it was US horse race. An unexpected DQ.

So your first edge was based around DQ? Or have I read that wrong? Seems a strange area if that is the case as its not something which happens all too often is it? Although I dont know a lot about US racing.

[jamesedwards]

Interesting, James. Was it a Aus horseracing market?

No, it was US horse race. An unexpected DQ.

So your first edge was based around DQ? Or have I read that wrong? Seems a strange area if that is the case as its not something which happens all too often is it? Although I dont know a lot about US racing.

Lots more DQs in the US. The rules are different over there.

[threedogs]

buy bdscalper its worth its weight in gold
i have made thousands out of trading

[csewell1987]

No, it was US horse race. An unexpected DQ.

So your first edge was based around DQ? Or have I read that wrong? Seems a strange area if that is the case as its not something which happens all too often is it? Although I dont know a lot about US racing.

Lots more DQs in the US. The rules are different over there.

Interesting. Even at max though you can surely only expect a few in one day? Must be some astronomical staking to make that pay anything worthwhile.

[jimibt]

buy bdscalper its worth its weight in gold
i have made thousands out of trading

lol - how to weigh all those electrons...