You'd think people actually involved in politics would have a better understanding of reading results!And she did pray for gods intervention.
US Presidential Election 2020
No wonder they're so upset and struggling to come to terms with reality. You'd think people actually involved in politics would have a better understanding of reading results!
And she did pray for gods intervention.
You'd think people actually involved in politics would have a better understanding of reading results!And she did pray for gods intervention.
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Last edited by Derek27 on Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
So, I think some good lessons here for the next political market, and especially the US presidential ?
You only needed 3 main pieces of information to make a fortune here:
*Given the polarized nature of US politics, and the electoral college system, all presidential elections can be expected to be very close, with the exceptions only being where you have a very charismatic candidate (e.g., Obama).
*Polls and pundits can be disregarded. People don't do as they think or say.
*The very high-volume of mail-in votes had led to an unusual situation, where Trump had asked his supporters to vote in person, meaning the mail-ins would favor the Dems. This would lead to a 'red mirage' where it seemed that Trump was winning early but BIden would trend later, because the mail-in were counted later.,
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I'm not so confident that the US will still be around in the form we know it in 4 years though....
You only needed 3 main pieces of information to make a fortune here:
*Given the polarized nature of US politics, and the electoral college system, all presidential elections can be expected to be very close, with the exceptions only being where you have a very charismatic candidate (e.g., Obama).
*Polls and pundits can be disregarded. People don't do as they think or say.
*The very high-volume of mail-in votes had led to an unusual situation, where Trump had asked his supporters to vote in person, meaning the mail-ins would favor the Dems. This would lead to a 'red mirage' where it seemed that Trump was winning early but BIden would trend later, because the mail-in were counted later.,
---
I'm not so confident that the US will still be around in the form we know it in 4 years though....
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abgespaced
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 am
This is the main point that everyone is missing. A strong and unified USA is the biggest threat to Chinese and Globalist hegemony. It plays right into China's hands to have the country divided and at each other's throats. It's almost irrelevant to them who wins, as long as they are pre-occupied with internal conflict they are weak.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
You only really need one piece of information to make a fortune in any market - that's the name of the winner!! When reviewing a trade or market you need to distinguish what you can learn and apply to future markets from hindsight.Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:05 amSo, I think some good lessons here for the next political market, and especially the US presidential ?
You only needed 3 main pieces of information to make a fortune here:
*Given the polarized nature of US politics, and the electoral college system, all presidential elections can be expected to be very close, with the exceptions only being where you have a very charismatic candidate (e.g., Obama).
*Polls and pundits can be disregarded. People don't do as they think or say.
*The very high-volume of mail-in votes had led to an unusual situation, where Trump had asked his supporters to vote in person, meaning the mail-ins would favor the Dems. This would lead to a 'red mirage' where it seemed that Trump was winning early but BIden would trend later, because the mail-in were counted later.,
---
I'm not so confident that the US will still be around in the form we know it in 4 years though....
I don't know much about political markets but I'm pretty sure a charismatic candidate is just one of many reasons why an election can be one-sided. I'm not sure polls can be disregarded. Do they always get it wrong? Even if they do, it may not have any impact on the result but it will have an impact on the market so needs to be considered.
Not only did the high level of mail-ins lead to an unusual situation, but it was also caused by an unusual situation and compounded by the actions of a very unusual president, the likes of which will not be seen again for at least 100,000 years. So it was really a unique situation not likely to happen again.
What's going on in Georgia with Biden's votes being counted last is happening the other way around in Arizona as a result of the postal votes already having been counted and Trump's closing rapidly. I don't hear Trump complaining about fraud though!
I've not played a blinder-
wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3559
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Further preparations being made...
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I feel like no state wants to be the one that decides the election - Fox and AP will declare it as they have already called AZ which looked very premature whereas others are waiting on PAAarondewit wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:26 amIt'd be nice if Georgia got on with it...
They expected a result a day ago.
True.abgespaced wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:07 amI don't understand why people think that Trump challenging the results makes him a sore loser, so to speak. If there was indeed illegal activity then that should be challenged. I don't care where you're from, but to say that you shouldn't question the legality of votes belongs somewhere in a communist playbook.
There are several thousand to be counted but also up to 8,000 military ballots have yet to be received (whether even a fraction of that will be received is anyone's guess)Aarondewit wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:41 amTrump's lead is only 670 in Georgia. Biden almost home.
Although I assume military ballots haven't been counted and being (mostly) white men, I assume they will favour Trump? No?