US Presidential Election 2020

[jamesg46]

I heard that on Kayleigh's page, apparently god's in control now after her pray group.

It's really a case of cry wolf. I've heard so much crap from the Republicans from zombies leaving their graves to vote, to anything that gets thrown in the bin must be a ballot paper. They think it's important to alert the public about how corrupt the system is, the problem is when it goes through the courts and gets thrown out the damage will already be done. All those furious Republicans won't know where or who to release their anger.

We shall not have a negative, sarcastic or sarcastically negative comment (is that the same thing?) about Kayleigh spoken in this thread. New rule as of now, totally made up by me. Even if its truthful, doesn't count.

You know what it's like when you fall in love with a woman and then you start to get to know her.

I have a feeling that if I met Kayleigh before I met my Mrs I might have.

I also think that if my Mrs knew about my Kayleigh crush, I might get to know the real Mrs.

[jamesg46]

I believe that backing Kemala at 1000 was better value

Don't worry, i didn't miss that one

Oh, and Trump doesn't need to win for it to be good value. There just needs to be uncertainty.

Defo agree with your uncertainty logic but % loss per tick on Trump is far bigger than the % loss per tick on Biden, of course the % gained can be argued but from the start its made sense to me to Lay Biden. We may have seen the bulk of uncertainty already, I would stand to lose 4 ticks on Biden, suppose that comes down to how its staked but a Lay on Biden covers more outcomes than a Back on Trump.

[rik]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

[Tuco]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

...there isn't one.

[abgespaced]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

...there isn't one.

Biden takes an extended nap

[jamesedwards]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

...there isn't one.

Biden takes an extended nap

Too late. Biden is already the "the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes".

[Derek27]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

Depends what you mean by realistic. Biden would have to resign or be incapacitated before the market closes. It's possible, and probably appropriate Betfair suspends the market as they suspend football matches for no reason whatsoever but they might settle the market as soon as Biden's declared the winner.

[Derek27]

...there isn't one.

Biden takes an extended nap

Too late. Biden is already the "the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes".

I'm not sure it's that straightforward.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

We all know what Betfair's reasonable discretion is like!

[Tuco]

whats the realistic scenario then that Kamela would be declared winner??

I've been laying Kamala Harris but still have her a 6 figure green, so if you can ask or encourage betfair to declare her the winner, that's fine by me

[rik]

just kept laying both of the main ones then instead of trading back and forth?

Clearly the way one should have played this market was to be aware of the amount of postal votes and the order of counting. Market massively underestimated either the amount of postal votes or the advantage Biden had in those or wasnt even aware of order of counting as much.
At least fox news declared Arizona for Biden whereas on Betfair it never got below 1.25 so there was some awareness, but look at Pennsylvania, Georgia they were all expected to go for trump at the time when he was overall favorite

[Derek27]

Such a waste of time counting all those votes for days when it's almost certain there will be a recount!

[Tuco]

Such a waste of time counting all those votes for days when it's almost certain there will be a recount!

...at least you'd hope the ballots were nicely sorted and ordered

[abgespaced]

Such a waste of time counting all those votes for days when it's almost certain there will be a recount!

...at least you'd hope the ballots were nicely sorted and ordered

Yep all those annoying republican ballots burned out the back in a 44 gallon drum

[Derek27]

There are signs that some Republicans are coming to their senses and realising the games up. Hopefully it will catch on, but their gonna have to come to terms with it sooner or later.

[Derek27]

I only just heard that Biden had a stammer as a child - I thought his struggle with words was due to age. It must be quite a morale boost to children around the world with such a problem!