Cheesed off...Not had my lightbulb moment

[Frogmella]

my wife doesnt understand when I throw the cat through the window.......Its a great skill to learn

Does Peter plan any videos on this??

[cybernet69]

I read allot of articles around backing, laying and trading in-running over the years but this one was probably the most important.

Hope nobody minds me posting it.

I didn't understand or spot it straightaway but after reading the contents several times and many more times, something smacked me in the head.

https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 5-696.html

It doesn't give you a complete strategy but there is one mega hint lurking in the text.

[jimibt]

I read allot of articles around backing, laying and trading in-running over the years but this one was probably the most important.

Hope nobody minds me posting it.

I didn't understand or spot it straightaway but after reading the contents several times and many more times, something smacked me in the head.

https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 5-696.html

It doesn't give you a complete strategy but there is one mega hint lurking in the text.

mark, hope you're well. if we're playing guessing games, i'd maybe initially offer this quote:

..When a favourite is about to come under pressure the price starts to 'wobble' around in the market as pressure grows from competing runners. A precursor to a weakening favourite is when the price on another runner starts to 'speed' up within or at the edge or its current trading range.

however, if as you have done, a few further reads then reveals this:

... One minute, 26 seconds later the second and third favourite's odds have moved appreciably while the favourite is gently sliding out of contention. The move on the third favourites is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin. This is a signal that many backers are chasing the price in as it comes into contention. It's often a sign of a winner and this was true in this case

but for me, the most compelling part is this:

Most people know that the average off price is around 3/1 as only one third of favourites win. But in-running the average price a favourite reaches in around 2/1 which hints at a lot of potential value when the starter signals the off. Therefore there are a number of elements worth exploring.

ah, the intrigue

[cybernet69]

I read allot of articles around backing, laying and trading in-running over the years but this one was probably the most important.

Hope nobody minds me posting it.

I didn't understand or spot it straightaway but after reading the contents several times and many more times, something smacked me in the head.

https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 5-696.html

It doesn't give you a complete strategy but there is one mega hint lurking in the text.

mark, hope you're well. if we're playing guessing games, i'd maybe initially offer this quote:

..When a favourite is about to come under pressure the price starts to 'wobble' around in the market as pressure grows from competing runners. A precursor to a weakening favourite is when the price on another runner starts to 'speed' up within or at the edge or its current trading range.

however, if as you have done, a few further reads then reveals this:

... One minute, 26 seconds later the second and third favourite's odds have moved appreciably while the favourite is gently sliding out of contention. The move on the third favourites is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin. This is a signal that many backers are chasing the price in as it comes into contention. It's often a sign of a winner and this was true in this case

but for me, the most compelling part is this:

Most people know that the average off price is around 3/1 as only one third of favourites win. But in-running the average price a favourite reaches in around 2/1 which hints at a lot of potential value when the starter signals the off. Therefore there are a number of elements worth exploring.

ah, the intrigue

Hi Jim, Me good, hope you are well.

"The move on the third favourite is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin.

[jimibt]

"The move on the third favourite is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin.

currently, via stats, i'm spotting a lot of stuff that is range based. however, i'm also seeing EXACTLY the scenario hinted at in the closing para of that article... i.e. fading faves. I'd suggest looking at faves with a BSP < 2.5 that fade to sub 2. With a few other contending metrics, a lay below 1.8 can yield decent results. However, it won't work on every race as a blanket trade (stats thus far in the flat season don't enjoy long haul races), and won't buy you a villa in bognor...

[LeTiss]

Putting yourself under pressure to earn from trading will most likely significantly distort your ability to trade profitably. Sometimes to move forward you have to move backwards. Take the pressure off and your results may improve.

That was a major obstacle to overcome when self-employed. I traded more conservatively, as I didn't have the safety net of this month's wages on the 28th

[cybernet69]

"The move on the third favourite is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin.

currently, via stats, i'm spotting a lot of stuff that is range based. however, i'm also seeing EXACTLY the scenario hinted at in the closing para of that article... i.e. fading faves. I'd suggest looking at faves with a BSP < 2.5 that fade to sub 2. With a few other contending metrics, a lay below 1.8 can yield decent results. However, it won't work on every race as a blanket trade (stats thus far in the flat season don't enjoy long haul races), and won't buy you a villa in bognor...

Interesting...

What I was thinking is back fav that had BSP > 3 (We getting value, maybe, on the 3/1 odds thingy) and at some point in the race the same runner LTP is someway in front of its current lay price. Could be a potentially good BTL, assuming some other criteria met before and during the race.

Could be a load of tosh though or maybe it could buy me a beech hut in Bognor ?????

[jimibt]

"The move on the third favourite is the strongest and its current lay price is trailing the last traded price by some margin.

currently, via stats, i'm spotting a lot of stuff that is range based. however, i'm also seeing EXACTLY the scenario hinted at in the closing para of that article... i.e. fading faves. I'd suggest looking at faves with a BSP < 2.5 that fade to sub 2. With a few other contending metrics, a lay below 1.8 can yield decent results. However, it won't work on every race as a blanket trade (stats thus far in the flat season don't enjoy long haul races), and won't buy you a villa in bognor...

Interesting...

What I was thinking is back fav that had BSP > 3 (We getting value, maybe, on the 3/1 odds thingy) and at some point in the race the same runner LTP is someway in front of its current lay price. Could be a potentially good BTL, assuming some other criteria met before and during the race.

Could be a load of tosh though or maybe it could buy me a beech hut in Bognor ?????

mark... i'll ponder and ping you some thoughts later. in a nutshell tho, the summer flat stats are producing wonderful opportunity, tho not sure if the market will catch up with these (seeming) anomalies, as it always does.

[cybernet69]

currently, via stats, i'm spotting a lot of stuff that is range based. however, i'm also seeing EXACTLY the scenario hinted at in the closing para of that article... i.e. fading faves. I'd suggest looking at faves with a BSP < 2.5 that fade to sub 2. With a few other contending metrics, a lay below 1.8 can yield decent results. However, it won't work on every race as a blanket trade (stats thus far in the flat season don't enjoy long haul races), and won't buy you a villa in bognor...

Interesting...

What I was thinking is back fav that had BSP > 3 (We getting value, maybe, on the 3/1 odds thingy) and at some point in the race the same runner LTP is someway in front of its current lay price. Could be a potentially good BTL, assuming some other criteria met before and during the race.

Could be a load of tosh though or maybe it could buy me a beech hut in Bognor ?????

mark... i'll ponder and ping you some thoughts later. in a nutshell tho, the summer flat stats are producing wonderful opportunity, tho not sure if the market will catch up with these (seeming) anomalies, as it always does.

PM sent, in the meantime I off to the Navy Rum and the complete series of BANSHEE.

[jimibt]

Interesting...

What I was thinking is back fav that had BSP > 3 (We getting value, maybe, on the 3/1 odds thingy) and at some point in the race the same runner LTP is someway in front of its current lay price. Could be a potentially good BTL, assuming some other criteria met before and during the race.

Could be a load of tosh though or maybe it could buy me a beech hut in Bognor ?????

mark... i'll ponder and ping you some thoughts later. in a nutshell tho, the summer flat stats are producing wonderful opportunity, tho not sure if the market will catch up with these (seeming) anomalies, as it always does.

PM sent, in the meantime I off to the Navy Rum and the complete series of BANSHEE.

before i hit *reply with quote*, i hit *report this post*... potentially the latter was more appropriate

[ShaunWhite]

the most compelling part is this:

Most people know that the average off price is around 3/1 as only one third of favourites win. But in-running the average price a favourite reaches in around 2/1 which hints at a lot of potential value when the starter signals the off.

On the surface that sounds like child's play, but raises more questions than it answers:

avg all favs = 3/1... yep, understood

But "the average price a favourite reaches in" is ambiguous? What is it?

Does that inlcude the favourites that start below 2/1 ?
What about the ones that start at 5 and head straight off to 1000?
Or is it just looking at the favourites that start over 2/1, which shorten? Which seems to be what it's saying.

The second '2/1' figure must surely have further qualifications as an 'average in-running price' for a favourite (if there is such a thing), in simple terms must be in the region of :

(4.0 - 1.00) / 2 for the 1/3 that win and
(1000 - 4.0)/2 for the 2/3's that lose

so, (1.5 + 498 * 498) /3 = 332.5 !

I think there's some apples vs oranges going on somewhere in that original quote, and the obvious 'hint' isn't obvious at all.

The article is aimed at beginners and taken at face value (which beginners do), I can imagine them backing every fav and trying to lay them all off at 2/1 IP. This 'hint' points beginners to a losing strategy unless they're savvy enough to ignore the obvious and go a lot lot deeper.

Can anyone explain how that 2/1 figure is arrived at? and if it's from the same sample that produced the 3/1 figure? (pw?)

[ShaunWhite]

What I was thinking is back fav that had BSP > 3 (We getting value, maybe, on the 3/1 odds thingy) and at some point in the race....

That 3/1 is an average, all favs. If you start selecting just some of them, the corresponding IP 'average' numbers change too. By picking say just the ones over 3/1, you might be selecting mostly ones that drift and lose. I'm not saying they do, but you don't know they don't.

I'm not sure why people give such enigmatic advice, if the reader can't solve the riddle it's a waste of everyone's time, and if they can solve it then you might as well have just told them straight to start with, and you've given away an edge and unlocked a method of finding even more edges.

I know there's much to be gained from solving your own puzzles, but so often they're more like The Times cryptic crossword, on a blank grid, with no word lengths, than they are a dot to dot.

Here's my clue:
My first is in horse and also in slpat
My second a vegetable, disliked by the cat.

Yes, it's "SP".. there you go, go look at SP, behind it is a key, now find the lock it fits and it will swich on a lightbulb.


btw ...this isn't a plea for people to post ready-rolled edges, I know all about the futility of doing that.

[ubetido]

Hi Cybernet

Could you expand on this

Personally, I wouldn't waste money on DVD's or training courses. Sorry if that upsets some.

You don't need to trade every market to make a living from trading, Although I agree everyone has different expectations, dreams and living costs.

Usually, I just concentrate on 4 or 5 races a day with the following criteria....

- Last 2 or 3 minutes before the off
- Obvious favourite in the betting
- More than 250K matched in the market
- More than 25k matched on the favourite
- Wait for price action near the bottom and top of a selections trading range
- Ignore the other selections
- Close out when the price actions starts to dry up
- Don't let trades go in-play
- Don't get distracted by people, TV, phones, Radio, Door Bell, Naked Neighbour etc.

If you follow all the above, then your lightbulb moment will come quicker than you think.

All the best,

Regards
ubetido

[cybernet69]

Hi Cybernet

Could you expand on this

Personally, I wouldn't waste money on DVD's or training courses. Sorry if that upsets some.

You don't need to trade every market to make a living from trading, Although I agree everyone has different expectations, dreams and living costs.

Usually, I just concentrate on 4 or 5 races a day with the following criteria....

- Last 2 or 3 minutes before the off
- Obvious favourite in the betting
- More than 250K matched in the market
- More than 25k matched on the favourite
- Wait for price action near the bottom and top of a selections trading range
- Ignore the other selections
- Close out when the price actions starts to dry up
- Don't let trades go in-play
- Don't get distracted by people, TV, phones, Radio, Door Bell, Naked Neighbour etc.

If you follow all the above, then your lightbulb moment will come quicker than you think.

All the best,

Regards
ubetido

There is no need to expand upon it.

[deggsy10]

Personally, I wouldn't waste money on DVD's or training courses. Sorry if that upsets some.

You don't need to trade every market to make a living from trading, Although I agree everyone has different expectations, dreams and living costs.

Usually, I just concentrate on 4 or 5 races a day with the following criteria....

- Last 2 or 3 minutes before the off
- Obvious favourite in the betting
- More than 250K matched in the market
- More than 25k matched on the favourite
- Wait for price action near the bottom and top of a selections trading range
- Ignore the other selections
- Close out when the price actions starts to dry up
- Don't let trades go in-play
- Don't get distracted by people, TV, phones, Radio, Door Bell, Naked Neighbour etc.

If you follow all the above, then your lightbulb moment will come quicker than you think.

All the best,

So which horse are you trading on, the favorite? Also you say to ignore the other runners but don't you need to monitor their price movements as it impacts on wether the price of the horse your trading will go up or down?