Cheesed off...Not had my lightbulb moment

[paulbunn]

I think I am losing the plot!!!. I read somewhere that 1 day whilst trying to understand trading you will have a "lightbulb" moment....I think I must be a "little" THICK...Because I have been attempting to understand the charts, the volume/IP, The whole 9 yards for nearly a year now....and I am just as bewildered by it all as I was back then. I have tried to find my niche etc, I must have watched all Peters videos at least 4 times by now and im either really "stupid" or not "brave" enough....I watch and try to trade every day including Sundays but I am not where I THINK i should be, if that makes sense...
I look at charts going upwards on both the BF and BA ones and think well its going out it must sometime (normally) have to come back in and vice versa....I understand if the favourite comes in usually the 2nd fav goes out and vice versa (again with the vice versa)
I see things steaming in and drifting out but as videos and training says dont indulge as you dont know where the end is if you missed the beginning.

As I have said over a year and still not getting the "Lightbulb" moment. I NEED HELP!!!! In more ways than 1. I did email PWs office but they suggested I air my woes on here. I got made redundant last year and at 57 didnt want another job. I have been to Hook (twice) but still cant find the bloody lightbulb

very frustrated and cheesed off...

[ShaunWhite]

I can sympathise, "watch a few races and it's obvious" they say, "I think it's going to do x", and it does. "This race type does this and that race type does that" is another thing that's often said. I suspect it's all a lot like riding a bike, in that once you can do it, it's quite hard to explain what you're doing and also hard to see how other people can't do it....and visa versa. It's like when you ride a motorbike, if you want to turn right, you actually push the righthand side of the bars, it doesn't feel like you do and you wouldn't teach it that way or even know you did, it just happens.

Anyway, maybe put the 'counter-trend' swing trading on one side for a bit if you're having trouble spotting the turning points (which is hard) and focus on nicking smaller bits and bobs, I can usually get a few tics just by following trends IF there's still a pile of money behind it, unless it happens to stop at the exact time I click of course. If you can avoid hopping on at natural sup/res points, that helps a lot. Be poised like a ninja waiting for those surges and hop on and off between the likely stopping points. Probbaly not going to work if you're putting up offers though, take the price that's there.

The thing I'm liking about the flat atm is the way there's always one that plays up badly when they're trying to load it (don't try this on ATR though). Again, don't be too greedy or you'll get stung when the most belligerant of animals suddenly goes in like a knife through butter. If you do find one that plays up, stick it in a GG alert for next time.

Maybe you could look at another sport to give your horse brain a break?

As usual, a whole heap of half-arsed advice from someone who's not really 100% nailed it himself yet. Hopefully the gurus out there will contradict me over something and that'll be the answer.

(oh and at the risk of being editted, try having a look at someone elses advice, I find the people here have a similar-ish way of talking about the markets, it could be that even the way someone else describes it makes the penny drop)

[JPK65]

Hi Paul
I know exactly how you feel. Every time I think I am taking a step towards trading success I take two steps backwards very quickly. Maybe you just can’t teach us old dogs new tricks. There are a lot of decent guys in this forum who will give you generic advice, that you should heed. They will hint at practical advice but, I’m afraid that when it comes to explaining just how to trade successfully (in terms of signals that you should look out for to open and exit a trade) they keep their cards pretty close to their chests. I am failing miserably so any advice from me would be equivalent to the blind leading the blind. All I can say is don’t beat yourself up. That can only make matters worse. You are not thick. This trading lark is f**king hard to get the hang off. I have just completed a PhD in engineering, but after 6 months of trying, I am nowhere near being able to predict what is going to happen next in any given Betfair market.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi PaulI am nowhere near being able to predict what is going to happen next in any given Betfair market.

I'm sure the basic trick is avg(win) > avg(loss) then you only need to be right half the time, which you should theoretically be able to do with your eyes closed. The apparent simplicity of that is what drives you crazy.

[to75ne]

perhaps your not cut out for trading and would explain why you have not had a "light bulb moment".

[Euler]

Putting yourself under pressure to earn from trading will most likely significantly distort your ability to trade profitably. Sometimes to move forward you have to move backwards. Take the pressure off and your results may improve.

[JPK65]

avg(win) > avg(loss) Yes that does sound so simple, but this requires a mindset and discipline to exit a trade very quickly when the market turns against you. I think that is exactly what us old dogs find hard to learn. It sounds like Paul is doing the same as me, where he is letting bad trades go that little too far, so that exiting becomes painful. We then believe that our only option is to find the turning point in the trend. This leads to re-entering a trade again and again. If we find the turning point the trade can become profitable quite quickly and we feel justified in our approach. When the trend continues and there is no discernible bounce, average losses far outweigh average wins.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Ditto to what Euler says. Investigate the markets, learn, rehearse and keep moving forward. Dont look at the markets as a way to make your daily wage look at them as though at the end of the tunnel there is light. The money will take care of itself just focus on protecting your bank.

[Bluesky]

I really have my doubts when it comes to a "lightbulb moment" situation regarding trading. I know that kind of language makes good copy if your selling a trading book or writing a magazine article or blog but I don't think most successful traders start off not being able to trade one minute and then all of a sudden it all falls into place (the so called light bulb moment) and they are successful the next.

I think learning to trade is a gradual process, and as someone else said in this thread its very much two steps forward one step back. Things slowly start to become clearer, and you start to notice little things that by themselves don't make a great deal of difference but when your brain puts them all together (and this takes a lot of time for most people) things start to make sense.

Try and think back to your first week or two of watching the ladders, think about how confusing it all was and that you wondered how you would ever make sense of any of it. Even though you are still not making money I would be virtually certain you are a lot better at reading the market than you were back then.

Although this is going to sound fairly controversial I think you can be a very good market reader and still not make any money. Try this little experiment with someone you know from the real world that has a bit of an interest in betting (doesn't have to know anything about trading) but wont be bored stiff if you have them watch a few races with you using the BA ladders and whatever else you use to make trading decisions.

Don't actually trade (it's very difficult trading with people watching you, even PW has said in the past he has found that hard) but instead explain to the person watching, what is going on and what you think is likely to happen next. You will more than likely find that a great deal of the things that you are predicting will happen, will actually happen and the person will likely think your some kind of trading god and must be raking it in.

Hopefully this will make you realise that you haven't been wasting your time over the last 12 months, and compared to the lay man (which is what you were 12 months ago) you now have a considerable knowledge of the markets mechanics.

[Bluesky]

if you want to turn right, you actually push the righthand side of the bars, it doesn't feel like you do and you wouldn't teach it that way or even know you did, it just happens.

Back when I learned to ride a motor bike this was true, but nowadays I think many bike instructors explain counter steering principles to their students, there are several vids on youtube explaining the technique. Although I was obviously using this technique all my years of riding, when I learnt all about the mechanics of counter steering about 10 years ago, I think it improved my riding quite a lot, in particular on right handed bends where for years I had a tendency to drift towards the centre of the road.

Sorry for going off topic, but I do have quite an interest in motorcycling.

[paulbunn]

absolutely brilliant!!!! thanks for all your thoughts etc it is good (probably not the right word) to know that there are others in the exactly the same place. EVERYONES replies have been a great help as my wife doesnt understand when I throw the cat through the window.......Its a great skill to learn but i think harder than I expected but I will NOT give up..otherwise I will be following the cat through the window!!!! Not sure if anyone else has tried other "pros" training packages like Mr Berrys etc. Would it be a good idea or just muddy the waters even more with a different perspective? I have watched his videos...a "LITTLE" different to PWs but under that brash exterior he is giving out the same message....practice practice practice and more practice, but apparently he nearly threw in the towel some years back. Anyway thanks for all the encouragement and views it REALLY does help

[Bluesky]

Not sure if anyone else has tried other "pros" training packages like Mr Berrys etc. Would it be a good idea or just muddy the waters even more with a different perspective?

I know a couple of guys who bought his DVDs they said they were OK, helped in providing some idea of what to look for but as you know by now, its not as easy as watching some guy doing it on a video and then doing the same thing yourself. Most people as you say need to practise, practise and then practise some more. When you look at the cost of his DVDs, for just a bit more you can get yourself a days training course with some people.

I haven't looked, but perhaps someone might be selling them second hand on Ebay, if you could get them for say £20 or £30 then they are probably worth it, but I don't think I would pay full price for them.

I was going to suggest that perhaps you consider taking PWs master class again, as now that you have had some trading experience then you should get more out of it, but looking at your OP it looks like you may have already done this.

[cybernet69]

Personally, I wouldn't waste money on DVD's or training courses. Sorry if that upsets some.

You don't need to trade every market to make a living from trading, Although I agree everyone has different expectations, dreams and living costs.

Usually, I just concentrate on 4 or 5 races a day with the following criteria....

- Last 2 or 3 minutes before the off
- Obvious favourite in the betting
- More than 250K matched in the market
- More than 25k matched on the favourite
- Wait for price action near the bottom and top of a selections trading range
- Ignore the other selections
- Close out when the price actions starts to dry up
- Don't let trades go in-play
- Don't get distracted by people, TV, phones, Radio, Door Bell, Naked Neighbour etc.

If you follow all the above, then your lightbulb moment will come quicker than you think.

All the best,

[Emmson]

Are you trying to trade pre-race on a standard or substandard broadband connection? that may put you at a severe disadvantage.

[paulbunn]

Thanks for those 2 replies again you lot are brill!!!. I actually made sure I had fibre optic with Sky...so i assume it should be ok although I did make an office upstairs and once i connected another screen for graphs etc it appeared to die...
Cybernet69 I will have a look at that and thanks alot for the info