Feedback on Strategy Please

[JustLukeYou]

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

So everything that has been mentioned is spot on, great advice which you should 100% pursue. The only thing that struck me enough to pick up on is that line about having a plan. YES absolutely go in with a plan, have an idea for what you think will happen and research well of course BUT if it doesn't happen, don't just leave the game. Look at what is happening and think about WHY it is happening all of the time.

It's that fine line you need to mind between under trading because you're too rigid and not open to looking at what is happening right now in a market and overtrading wildly because you're trying to jump on everything. To conclude, yes go in with a plan but also be flexible and open. Keep an inquisitive mind, trial regularly but do so in a manner where you can analyse whether you're seeing progression in yourself and your results.

Callum - this is kinda my manta (ESPECIALLY with football). The road is littered with conceived notions on football (we're all armchair experts).

However, the real dynamics play out in a cruel fashion (think Spurs, Man City thus far). Therefore, stats, preconceived notions are (almost) useless. This is where the game savants come into play (psychoff springs to mind). Dropping formulas and rigid strategies allows these guys to tag the game and monitor it as they *see* something that they know has a probability of happening. Not because of stats, but because it's unfolding and they have the experience to see a finite number of scenario outcomes.

Dial back to reviewing games where *we* make assumptions regarding the 55 minute mark and you see how absurd this all is....

anyway, just my take

"Dial back to reviewing games where *we* make assumptions regarding the 55 minute mark and you see how absurd this all is...."

Hi, what do mean by this please?

[jimibt]

So everything that has been mentioned is spot on, great advice which you should 100% pursue. The only thing that struck me enough to pick up on is that line about having a plan. YES absolutely go in with a plan, have an idea for what you think will happen and research well of course BUT if it doesn't happen, don't just leave the game. Look at what is happening and think about WHY it is happening all of the time.

It's that fine line you need to mind between under trading because you're too rigid and not open to looking at what is happening right now in a market and overtrading wildly because you're trying to jump on everything. To conclude, yes go in with a plan but also be flexible and open. Keep an inquisitive mind, trial regularly but do so in a manner where you can analyse whether you're seeing progression in yourself and your results.

Callum - this is kinda my manta (ESPECIALLY with football). The road is littered with conceived notions on football (we're all armchair experts).

However, the real dynamics play out in a cruel fashion (think Spurs, Man City thus far). Therefore, stats, preconceived notions are (almost) useless. This is where the game savants come into play (psychoff springs to mind). Dropping formulas and rigid strategies allows these guys to tag the game and monitor it as they *see* something that they know has a probability of happening. Not because of stats, but because it's unfolding and they have the experience to see a finite number of scenario outcomes.

Dial back to reviewing games where *we* make assumptions regarding the 55 minute mark and you see how absurd this all is....

anyway, just my take

"Dial back to reviewing games where *we* make assumptions regarding the 55 minute mark and you see how absurd this all is...."

Hi, what do mean by this please?

there's a manta in football that certain thresholds are paramount. go in hard at 55', exit at 70' etc. It's complete to$h. read the game (if you can) and hold or drop/change your positions as each unique game unfolds).

Admission of guilt. I was one of those guys that partied around certain time markers/goal thresholds. It all came to nothing, there was no rational sustainability. On reviewing how games play out this honestly is where the edges can be found. It's probably just me, but I'm slightly jaded when it comes to applying generics to holistics. That said, monitoring (inter) market friction CAN allow a certain amount of blind trading...

[CallumPerry]

Completely agree, never ever follow a 'enter an X time and leave at Y time when price is Z' blah blah 'plan'. Just think about it logically, why the hell would that work over 10,000+ markets? What is the reasoning behind these prices and these numbers? Question everything and try to underpin your own reasons. Explore these thoughts and test them, this is how you find your edges.

[JustLukeYou]

At the moment I just watching matches and going by what I think will happen. I do some research before the match but if that doesn't go to plan I just bail and go by what I see by watching the match. I don't really go by what is happening with the odds as the market may be wrong.

[CallumPerry]

The market is never wrong all hail the market.

Good, be flexible and critique everything. Just remember there are so many opinions on here, many can be right (even if their saying different things) and everyone has their own style. Some will shout "You can't do that, it doesn't work like that" but ultimately people from both sides of an opinion can both be profitable... I think that made sense, I'm very tired aha

Do your own thing, the market is full of so many people doing their own things. That's why it's complex. A market is a big mess of many personalities all having an opinion at the end of the day, you just need to find yourself on the right side of the profitable bell curve.

[jimibt]

The market is never wrong all hail the market.
.... you just need to find yourself on the right side of the profitable bell curve.

never a truer word utterted and buttered. with experience (i guess!!) that becomes natural. in learning, it means that trial and error must be equally evaluated as they are both part of the same frickin pendulum!!