Feedback on Strategy Please

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I was watching a match live and monitoring the stats. One team had 69% and came close to scoring a few times. So I placed 10p on 7.4 and 70p at 2.38 for that team to win. The team scored and I traded the 70p in for £1.25. So a 56% profit overall.

It took around 30 minutes for the team to score. The 70p fell to around 50 but the 10p rose to around 20p. So I could have traded out for around a 10p loss. If the game drew 0-0 I would have broke even. I was quite convince this team would score first.

What are peoples thoughts on this?

[jimibt]

Hi,

I was watching a match live and monitoring the stats. One team had 69% and came close to scoring a few times. So I placed 10p on 7.4 and 70p at 2.38 for that team to win. The team scored and I traded the 70p in for £1.25. So a 56% profit overall.

It took around 30 minutes for the team to score. The 70p fell to around 50 but the 10p rose to around 20p. So I could have traded out for around a 10p loss. If the game drew 0-0 I would have broke even. I was quite convince this team would score first.

What are peoples thoughts on this?

one game just does not provide enough definitive data to provide meaningful feedback. it does sound like (in this instance) you've called it right. however, if you don't really know why you got it right, then you need to take detailed notes on a few things:

1. entry point (time and odds)
2. game bias -who dominated etc
3. key movements in odds
4. reading of the game without being biased by your position

etc...

I think you're maybe being hopeful in getting any detailed reviews on your progress due to the one off nature of the event, but it sounds like a very positive start.

[BetBuddy]

If you keep betting below the minimum then you will soon get a nice message from BF. Continue doing it and they will freeze your account or put you on a delayed feed update.

[JustLukeYou]

Thanks guys, this is on Smarkets.

Also I am trying to follow the match and the live feed keeps crashing. This is on both Bet365 and SkyBet. Getting my ******* nerves.

I get this a lot when I watch any match, does anyone else experience this.

If I try to watch Barcelona matches for leisure they all keep freezing.

[JustLukeYou]

1. entry point (time and odds)
I think I entered just at the right time and odds. I was certain the team would score first.

2. game bias -who dominated etc
Again I was certain they would score first

3. key movements in odds
Not sure what this means. Can you add more info please?

4. reading of the game without being biased by your position

I focused on a game and league I had very little prior knowledge of so wasn't biased by the status of the club. For example, I think I have been influenced by just expecting Man Utd to win instead of looking at their recent form objectively.

[jimibt]

3. key movements in odds
Not sure what this means. Can you add more info please?

across the various markets (OU/Match odds) did the decay follow a slow steady path, or did it jerk around (opportunity!!) etc...

[JustLukeYou]

3. key movements in odds
Not sure what this means. Can you add more info please?

across the various markets (OU/Match odds) did the decay follow a slow steady path, or did it jerk around (opportunity!!) etc...

Hi, I am still not sure what this shows. I thought the plan would work so I tested it. I'm just thinking whether to try it with 1-0 on the opposition in cast they score.

[jimibt]

3. key movements in odds
Not sure what this means. Can you add more info please?

across the various markets (OU/Match odds) did the decay follow a slow steady path, or did it jerk around (opportunity!!) etc...

Hi, I am still not sure what this shows. I thought the plan would work so I tested it. I'm just thinking whether to try it with 1-0 on the opposition in cast they score.

it highlights the perception that there is potential for a change (if the odds don't decay in a linear fashion). I've seen examples where the decaying odds have stalled for minutes at a time. Those who read the game would be able to capitalise on this, especially when married to live pictures - uncertainty = opportunity.

[JustLukeYou]

across the various markets (OU/Match odds) did the decay follow a slow steady path, or did it jerk around (opportunity!!) etc...

Hi, I am still not sure what this shows. I thought the plan would work so I tested it. I'm just thinking whether to try it with 1-0 on the opposition in cast they score.

it highlights the perception that there is potential for a change (if the odds don't decay in a linear fashion). I've seen examples where the decaying odds have stalled for minutes at a time. Those who read the game would be able to capitalise on this, especially when married to live pictures - uncertainty = opportunity.

Hi,

Can you give an example please? I saw it as an opportunity to back the team who I thought would score first and break even if it finished 0-0. How do the odds stalling in their decline influence the way money can be made?

[jimibt]

Hi, I am still not sure what this shows. I thought the plan would work so I tested it. I'm just thinking whether to try it with 1-0 on the opposition in cast they score.

it highlights the perception that there is potential for a change (if the odds don't decay in a linear fashion). I've seen examples where the decaying odds have stalled for minutes at a time. Those who read the game would be able to capitalise on this, especially when married to live pictures - uncertainty = opportunity.

Hi,

Can you give an example please? I saw it as an opportunity to back the team who I thought would score first and break even if it finished 0-0. How do the odds stalling in their decline influence the way money can be made?

gosh - back of fag packet analysis on the way .

When the decay of odds stalls, it signals that someting tangeable is happening on field that is flying in the face of the conventional odds decay. therefore, this represents a decision point which only the analyst (you) can make. this may mean that the team (currently 1-0 up) are under pressure and therefore the Match odds are at risk, plus the OU market is likely to get bust. OR, it can mean that the team that are 1-0 up are cruising but have hit an injury period and therefore the market is uncertain as to how they will recover etc.

these are just two very silly contrived scenarios -there are limitless variants on this. Your job as analyst/top dog trader is to navigate what's on screen as a chart vs what's on screen in the game... you just need to endlessly THINK about stuff and add it to your experiences, because if it can happen, it WILL - enjoy

[JustLukeYou]

Many thanks, it does seem a lot clearer when you watch the match. I found that last night and tonight.

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

I am just fixated on having an insurance bet like I did tonight.

[jimibt]

Many thanks, it does seem a lot clearer when you watch the match. I found that last night and tonight.

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

I am just fixated on having an insurance bet like I did tonight.

my closing thoughts... you're still looking for a generic formula. a heap more experience (even trading on 10p stakes) will endow you with the experience to flexibly navigate rapidly changing circumstances that don't match with your expectations (can't convey how important that little sentence is - don't marry your hopes to an event that may not occur).

be open minded and only take positions that appear to offer the best profits, based on what you read from the game.

[JustLukeYou]

Many thanks, it does seem a lot clearer when you watch the match. I found that last night and tonight.

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

I am just fixated on having an insurance bet like I did tonight.

my closing thoughts... you're still looking for a generic formula. a heap more experience (even trading on 10p stakes) will endow you with the experience to flexibly navigate rapidly changing circumstances that don't match with your expectations (can't convey how important that little sentence is - don't marry your hopes to an event that may not occur).

be open minded and only take positions that appear to offer the best profits, based on what you read from the game.

Completely agree. Up until I was expecting to happen what I thought would happen instead of being patient. The frustrating thing is that I can't practice and test ideas everyday. If I focus on one league they are televised only around 2 or 3 days a week.

[CallumPerry]

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

So everything that has been mentioned is spot on, great advice which you should 100% pursue. The only thing that struck me enough to pick up on is that line about having a plan. YES absolutely go in with a plan, have an idea for what you think will happen and research well of course BUT if it doesn't happen, don't just leave the game. Look at what is happening and think about WHY it is happening all of the time.

It's that fine line you need to mind between under trading because you're too rigid and not open to looking at what is happening right now in a market and overtrading wildly because you're trying to jump on everything. To conclude, yes go in with a plan but also be flexible and open. Keep an inquisitive mind, trial regularly but do so in a manner where you can analyse whether you're seeing progression in yourself and your results.

[jimibt]

It sounds like each match I need a plan which I think will happen. If it doesn't happen then I abandon the game. Like tonight for example I thought Arminia Bielefeld would win and they were playing the best football. If I was watching Man City on Saturday I'm sure I would have assumed Man City would win even though Wolves had some early chances.

So everything that has been mentioned is spot on, great advice which you should 100% pursue. The only thing that struck me enough to pick up on is that line about having a plan. YES absolutely go in with a plan, have an idea for what you think will happen and research well of course BUT if it doesn't happen, don't just leave the game. Look at what is happening and think about WHY it is happening all of the time.

It's that fine line you need to mind between under trading because you're too rigid and not open to looking at what is happening right now in a market and overtrading wildly because you're trying to jump on everything. To conclude, yes go in with a plan but also be flexible and open. Keep an inquisitive mind, trial regularly but do so in a manner where you can analyse whether you're seeing progression in yourself and your results.

Callum - this is kinda my manta (ESPECIALLY with football). The road is littered with conceived notions on football (we're all armchair experts).

However, the real dynamics play out in a cruel fashion (think Spurs, Man City thus far). Therefore, stats, preconceived notions are (almost) useless. This is where the game savants come into play (psychoff springs to mind). Dropping formulas and rigid strategies allows these guys to tag the game and monitor it as they *see* something that they know has a probability of happening. Not because of stats, but because it's unfolding and they have the experience to see a finite number of scenario outcomes.

Dial back to reviewing games where *we* make assumptions regarding the 55 minute mark and you see how absurd this all is....

anyway, just my take