Longevity concerns

[RickS_39]

Interesting from a political side of things with cancel culture.

I'm reluctant to spoil this guys thread but cancel culture is largely about offending people, not preventing unnecessary death and injury. If a similar number of jockeys died then people would be up in arms.

No worries about the thread. I'm open to any insight and it's reasonable to consider the impact of things such as politics and social culture too. Providing it stays on track and we can all discuss amicably Many thanks for the input.

[RickS_39]

Be lucky if Greyhounds survive 5 years now NZ has begun the virtue signalling

It's not virtue signalling, it's the death and injury rates and probably worse, the huge number of dogs dumped in the rehoming system becuase any fool can breed dozens hoping for a good one. If you love dogs these numbers make uncomfortable reading for something that's just for entertainment.

United Kingdom: In 2023, the Greyhound Board of Great Britain (GBGB) reported 109 trackside deaths and 4,238 injuries across its 20 licensed tracks. These figures represent a significant portion of the approximately 15,000 active racing greyhounds in the UK.

New Zealand: In 2021, reports indicated that 232 greyhounds died and 900 were injured during races. Between 2021 and mid-2024, over 2,500 injuries and 262 deaths were recorded. These persistent welfare concerns led the New Zealand government to announce plans in December 2024 to ban greyhound racing by August 2026.

Comparison: While both countries have faced significant issues regarding greyhound welfare, the data suggests that New Zealand experienced a higher rate of deaths relative to its racing population compared to the UK. This disparity has been a contributing factor in New Zealand's decision to phase out the sport entirely

This is certainly a toubling read, though, with my early professional back ground being in animal care based roles, i'm typically aware of such things so aren't too surprised either.
Thankfully, my initial focus is going to be football and hopefully explore other sports as I progress.

[ODPaul82]

Tennis liquidity is generally fine 500+ level tournaments, 250 is generally ok, later rounds for challenger is questionable these days unless nothing else on but its "horses for courses", there's strategies for every level.

You roll out different strategies and different liability levels for what's presented on any sport with what's available to you on the day.
Sometimes it will be lower liquidity markets you do one thing, higher liquidity markets you do the same thing but maybe slightly differently be that staking or entry point.

[RickS_39]

Tennis liquidity is generally fine 500+ level tournaments, 250 is generally ok, later rounds for challenger is questionable these days unless nothing else on but its "horses for courses", there's strategies for every level.

You roll out different strategies and different liability levels for what's presented on any sport with what's available to you on the day.
Sometimes it will be lower liquidity markets you do one thing, higher liquidity markets you do the same thing but maybe slightly differently be that staking or entry point.

Understood. Thanks for your input. I have come across this concept recently so I will be sure to take some time to understand the various market conditions.

[Kai]

I did find one thread but it seemed to go quite off topic haha

There was a similar one that stayed on topic btw : viewtopic.php?t=29207

Your concerns are valid, but if the effort spent mastering trading yields more than what you could earn elsewhere, it's a good trade.

Which is essentially the opportunity cost formula I suppose, so it probably helps to understand it.

Opportunity cost = Return on best foregone option − Return on chosen option

[Kai]

Right now, i'm working on learning how to ensure my loses don't wipe me out haha.

I have to say, that's the perfect place to start

You don't always have to be right, just don't be so overwhelmingly wrong it hurts. You'll probably find that aiming for perfection only leads to hesitation through analysis paralysis or overreacting to losses by chasing them. And winning in a probabilistic game is about playing the EV, not seeking guarantees. So can leave that game to the fast pix guys.

GL!

[wearthefoxhat]

IMHO, on balance, football is a good avenue to pursue. I wouldn't be put off when you hear the "the big boys have it wrapped up," there's plenty to go around and value on offer too.

It's a personal choice on which sport you decide on. Longevity, I reckon, Football/Cricket/Tennis/Darts. Will Betfair/Betdaq be part of your trading plan too?

My original background and interest, has been Horse Racing/Greyhound racing. Horse racing still has something to offer during the big festivals and anything Peter Webb posts or has posted on you-tube, is worth studying.

Greyhound racing as a sport, as a few have alluded to, has it's problems globally. From a trading perspective, with the market diminishing, the use of tech/bots and data is more important than ever.

[tumby]

The beautiful thing about the sports markets are that there are so many different areas to look at, approaches to take and ways to find an edge. For me my main focus is golf although i also trade tennis, snooker, darts and horses. I found my golf system is still profitable after many years although it is down from its peak successes as volumes have fallen. I suspect this is due to the overall decline in numbers of participants in the markets but also because of golfs own stupidity in splitting into LIV and PGA.

My focus in the early days was deliberately chosen to focus on sports i don't really follow, i didn't want to bring my own prejudices and emotional baggage with me. I have never played 18 holes of golf in my life but having focused so much on it over the years i probably have more understanding and insight than i ever did in the markets i avoided! My personal favourite sport is cricket and I would love to find a way to succeed in that sport but have found that hard.

I think there are lots of opportunities and often not where you might first look, however, would i dedicate a lot of time and effort into this if starting from scratch today? Definitely not. One of the downsides of falling volumes is that even winning systems have to be scaled back, most strategies are not scalable to a point where you could get close to applying the Kelly criterion. Certainly my strategies are running at a fraction of the size they were a few years ago.

[RickS_39]

I did find one thread but it seemed to go quite off topic haha

There was a similar one that stayed on topic btw : viewtopic.php?t=29207

Your concerns are valid, but if the effort spent mastering trading yields more than what you could earn elsewhere, it's a good trade.

Which is essentially the opportunity cost formula I suppose, so it probably helps to understand it.

Opportunity cost = Return on best foregone option − Return on chosen option

Ah thank you, I had not come across this one thread.

This is a practical formula to contemplate. I have no doubt about the financial benefits, so from that perspective it's a good trade. It's when considering the long term trade off between taking time to master this or something else depending on the future health of Betfair. I feel for the immidate future, everything is fine. I know theres no crystal ball to tell us for sure, but I do appreicate the more informed opinions of you all here.

[RickS_39]

Right now, i'm working on learning how to ensure my loses don't wipe me out haha.

I have to say, that's the perfect place to start

You don't always have to be right, just don't be so overwhelmingly wrong it hurts. You'll probably find that aiming for perfection only leads to hesitation through analysis paralysis or overreacting to losses by chasing them. And winning in a probabilistic game is about playing the EV, not seeking guarantees. So can leave that game to the fast pix guys.

GL!

Yes, in concept it's quite simple but in practice it's taking some effort to changing my way of thinking into probabilities haha. I have been clicking around on practice mode to get a feel for how things work, and how markets react to certain situations as i'm finding all the theory i've gone through suddenly makes little sense when what you expect never happens haha. It's coming together slowly but surely.

[RickS_39]

IMHO, on balance, football is a good avenue to pursue. I wouldn't be put off when you hear the "the big boys have it wrapped up," there's plenty to go around and value on offer too.

It's a personal choice on which sport you decide on. Longevity, I reckon, Football/Cricket/Tennis/Darts. Will Betfair/Betdaq be part of your trading plan too?

My original background and interest, has been Horse Racing/Greyhound racing. Horse racing still has something to offer during the big festivals and anything Peter Webb posts or has posted on you-tube, is worth studying.

Greyhound racing as a sport, as a few have alluded to, has it's problems globally. From a trading perspective, with the market diminishing, the use of tech/bots and data is more important than ever.

Your view certainly is beneficial for me. My focus initially is football. As I get more experience and proficiency, I hope to look at Darts and I was thinking Snooker but this doesn't appear to have the same level of attention and activity. As of this moment, Betfair is part of the plan.

[RickS_39]

The beautiful thing about the sports markets are that there are so many different areas to look at, approaches to take and ways to find an edge. For me my main focus is golf although i also trade tennis, snooker, darts and horses. I found my golf system is still profitable after many years although it is down from its peak successes as volumes have fallen. I suspect this is due to the overall decline in numbers of participants in the markets but also because of golfs own stupidity in splitting into LIV and PGA.

My focus in the early days was deliberately chosen to focus on sports i don't really follow, i didn't want to bring my own prejudices and emotional baggage with me. I have never played 18 holes of golf in my life but having focused so much on it over the years i probably have more understanding and insight than i ever did in the markets i avoided! My personal favourite sport is cricket and I would love to find a way to succeed in that sport but have found that hard.

I think there are lots of opportunities and often not where you might first look, however, would i dedicate a lot of time and effort into this if starting from scratch today? Definitely not. One of the downsides of falling volumes is that even winning systems have to be scaled back, most strategies are not scalable to a point where you could get close to applying the Kelly criterion. Certainly my strategies are running at a fraction of the size they were a few years ago.

I find it interesting that you have mentioned Snooker as I was hoping to look at this myself but it seems largely absent from discussion.
I believe Peter recently did a video stating something similar to you in that his trading has scaled down and he is now putting a bit more time into financial markets. It is a fairly disappointing start to think the effort may be lost further down the line as volumes drop, but a lot of replies here have seemed fairly positive too. I often think things go in cycles but given the motivation to promote such platforms seems low, I have had doubts. Thanks for the insight.

[Kai]

This is a practical formula to contemplate. I have no doubt about the financial benefits, so from that perspective it's a good trade. It's when considering the long term trade off between taking time to master this or something else depending on the future health of Betfair.

Well, most skills you'd gain in sports trading should carry over to other trading arenas, so not necessarily a dead end either way. Same core principles.

I don't think it's the details that will make you successful, but the framework behind them. If you know the price of something, that something can be anything.

It also means a lot of the advice translates over as well, but it's always a tricky dilemma for traders, the instinct to help beginners VS the risk of eroding your own edge.

You naturally want to help those starting out because you see a part of yourself in them, but at the same time they're your near future competitors and you're just helping that competition catch up, which WILL hurt your bottom line in the long run, depending on how many of those details you (over)share.

[ShaunWhite]

The instinct to help beginners VS the risk of eroding your own edge.

You naturally want to help those starting out because you see a part of yourself in them, but at the same time they're your near future competitors and you're just helping that competition catch up, which WILL hurt your bottom line in the long run, depending on how many of those details you (over)share.

I'm not so sure about that. I'm of the view that success stories attract new customers, and the vast majority of those will be losers, the exchange grows and the equilibrium is maintained.

I'm not certain but I think that's the ethos behind BA being sold at close to cost price, and to an extent the Flumine open source project. Rather than profiteering or keeping the edge (software) to themselves it helps some people to be profitable, which ultimately creates more growth than it does wallet threatening competition.

If I'm wrong about that I'm sure they'll correct me.

[Kai]

I'm not so sure about that.

That's good, differing opinions are great for exchange growth

Sure, success stories can inspire the next wave of traders, but that's more about validation as they rarely come with specifics on the profitable approach used. Otherwise we'd see trading examples etc much more often than once in a blue moon.

Wouldn't directly call any trading software an edge though. As good a tool as it is, it's still just a tool, and as such it can only be as sharp as its user. Ideally a trader should be able to profit using the BF website as well.