Longevity concerns

[RickS_39]

Hi all.

I'm new both here and to Betfair trading as a whole, so I apologise if this topic exists already on here. I did take a quick look to double check. I did find one thread but it seemed to go quite off topic haha,

Something I have seen mentioned recently is that long term traders generally speaking, have seen a reduction in annual earnings. One of the reasons flagged up is that less people are trading and/or betting these days and there is a reduction in liquidity. This was in addition to other factors.

If this is true, what do you all think about the longevity of trading and it's profitability for someone who is looking to begin a long term effort in trading?
It can absorb some motivation to think you're entering a downward spiral.

[jamesedwards]

IMO there's a fair chance of overall volume decline levelling off. Primarily due to coming out the other side of the mess that is affordability checks (surely most of the harm has already been done?) And also the new Expert Fee vs Premium Charge rules should reduce the amount of traders leaving when they reach a fee-payable threshold.

Horse racing could continue to decline (though hopefully a little slower) as the industry is failing to keep racing fashionable to the younger generation. Greyhound racing will surely die completely in the next 10 years or so as pressure to ban the sport spreads through the UK.

[Euler]

Betfair still matches probably £40bn a year and some sports like Cricket have boomed. So there are always going to be opportunities.

[ANGELS15]

Betfair still matches probably £40bn a year and some sports like Cricket have boomed. So there are always going to be opportunities.

That's interesting but there seems to be a lack of awereness among the few newer punters about exchanges or their benefits.

[ShaunWhite]

It's not exactly a golden era and it's hard to see where it's going, but some sports are more affected than others. I don't seen a great future for horse and greyhound racing but football and cricket are quite buoyant. On the positive side Betfair aren't looking like a company winding down, they're continually developing new functionality (which isn't cheap) such as the work around removing passive bet delays.

What expectation do you have re income ie how much do you need to be motivated? You can make 5 figures, 6 if you're good, but you might need to dial down your expectations about 7. But it's tax free, almost no overheads and a nice lifestyle, balanced against no pension or health plan, no sick pay and obtaining credit is hard if you need it.

Consider the long view when it come to your approach. If you like watching sport and don't mind working when you have to then manual trading is OK. But the novelty of doing it every day soon wears off so you need to really like the sports angle. But if you want to manage your own time, and eventually have more than one pair of hands working for you, then automation might be the way. But that's mainly an IT job not exciting 'trading'. Just make sure you create a job you actually want.

[Fugazi]

Horse racing could continue to decline (though hopefully a little slower) as the industry is failing to keep racing fashionable to the younger generation. Greyhound racing will surely die completely in the next 10 years or so as pressure to ban the sport spreads through the UK.

My exact thoughts. Kids don't even like going out on a Saturday night anymore.

Be lucky if Greyhounds survive 5 years now NZ has begun the virtue signalling

As others have said, football and cricket looking good for longevity.

[ShaunWhite]

Be lucky if Greyhounds survive 5 years now NZ has begun the virtue signalling

It's not virtue signalling, it's the death and injury rates and probably worse, the huge number of dogs dumped in the rehoming system becuase any fool can breed dozens hoping for a good one. If you love dogs these numbers make uncomfortable reading for something that's just for entertainment.

United Kingdom: In 2023, the Greyhound Board of Great Britain (GBGB) reported 109 trackside deaths and 4,238 injuries across its 20 licensed tracks. These figures represent a significant portion of the approximately 15,000 active racing greyhounds in the UK.

New Zealand: In 2021, reports indicated that 232 greyhounds died and 900 were injured during races. Between 2021 and mid-2024, over 2,500 injuries and 262 deaths were recorded. These persistent welfare concerns led the New Zealand government to announce plans in December 2024 to ban greyhound racing by August 2026.

Comparison: While both countries have faced significant issues regarding greyhound welfare, the data suggests that New Zealand experienced a higher rate of deaths relative to its racing population compared to the UK. This disparity has been a contributing factor in New Zealand's decision to phase out the sport entirely

[Emtaxx]

Interesting from a political side of things with cancel culture, Dogs will probably go in 10 years and then speculation would probably guess horse racing in uk would get cancelled next 20 years... but that's fear mongering for you, just my own opinion on how the UK is going. England wont generate any money in another 20 years lol.

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting from a political side of things with cancel culture.

I'm reluctant to spoil this guys thread but cancel culture is largely about offending people, not preventing unnecessary death and injury. If a similar number of jockeys died then people would be up in arms.

[Fugazi]

Be lucky if Greyhounds survive 5 years now NZ has begun the virtue signalling

It's not virtue signalling, it's the death and injury rates and probably worse, the huge number of dogs dumped in the rehoming system becuase any fool can breed dozens hoping for a good one. If you love dogs these numbers make uncomfortable reading for something that's just for entertainment.

United Kingdom: In 2023, the Greyhound Board of Great Britain (GBGB) reported 109 trackside deaths and 4,238 injuries across its 20 licensed tracks. These figures represent a significant portion of the approximately 15,000 active racing greyhounds in the UK.

New Zealand: In 2021, reports indicated that 232 greyhounds died and 900 were injured during races. Between 2021 and mid-2024, over 2,500 injuries and 262 deaths were recorded. These persistent welfare concerns led the New Zealand government to announce plans in December 2024 to ban greyhound racing by August 2026.

Comparison: While both countries have faced significant issues regarding greyhound welfare, the data suggests that New Zealand experienced a higher rate of deaths relative to its racing population compared to the UK. This disparity has been a contributing factor in New Zealand's decision to phase out the sport entirely

Sounds like better regulation and stricter punishment could be an alternate option, works for horse racing. Though horses are mostly more expensive and not so 'expendable'. I ride horses myself and have always felt the trade off for the falls / injuries is worthwhile for the general high welfare of racing horses

[Euler]

https://x.com/louie_french/status/1895075736999825740

[Fugazi]

https://x.com/louie_french/status/1895075736999825740

Talk about timing!

The naysayers only have to be successful once to get it banned. Has to get lucky every time to survive.

[RickS_39]

IMO there's a fair chance of overall volume decline levelling off. Primarily due to coming out the other side of the mess that is affordability checks (surely most of the harm has already been done?) And also the new Expert Fee vs Premium Charge rules should reduce the amount of traders leaving when they reach a fee-payable threshold.

Horse racing could continue to decline (though hopefully a little slower) as the industry is failing to keep racing fashionable to the younger generation. Greyhound racing will surely die completely in the next 10 years or so as pressure to ban the sport spreads through the UK.

Thank you for your insight. I can see how Betfair are working to make changes that could help with longevity and at least retain more cutomers. Hopefully, this will also help to entice people in later down the line also. My main focus is going to be on football to begin with, and reading through other replies, this looks reasonably healthy right now. I can see why the the future of horse and greyhound racing is less positive though.

[RickS_39]

Betfair still matches probably £40bn a year and some sports like Cricket have boomed. So there are always going to be opportunities.

This is quite interesting. I often flick through other sports to observe how the markets work there, and find many appear somewhat flat. Snooker for example. It's good to know others are growing beyond the 4 primary sports I see discussed most often. Many thanks.

[RickS_39]

It's not exactly a golden era and it's hard to see where it's going, but some sports are more affected than others. I don't seen a great future for horse and greyhound racing but football and cricket are quite buoyant. On the positive side Betfair aren't looking like a company winding down, they're continually developing new functionality (which isn't cheap) such as the work around removing passive bet delays.

What expectation do you have re income ie how much do you need to be motivated? You can make 5 figures, 6 if you're good, but you might need to dial down your expectations about 7. But it's tax free, almost no overheads and a nice lifestyle, balanced against no pension or health plan, no sick pay and obtaining credit is hard if you need it.

Consider the long view when it come to your approach. If you like watching sport and don't mind working when you have to then manual trading is OK. But the novelty of doing it every day soon wears off so you need to really like the sports angle. But if you want to manage your own time, and eventually have more than one pair of hands working for you, then automation might be the way. But that's mainly an IT job not exciting 'trading'. Just make sure you create a job you actually want.

It may have helped to state my focus initially is football haha.
I have considered the development of betfair and the new functionalities, though I sometime wonder if this is a recovery effort. Im unsure as that sounds like an expensive risk.

Regarding expections, The ideal outcome is to at least make a living from this long term, hitting an average salary for example, and if 6 figures is something I think I can achieve later on, then Ill push on. right now, i'm working on learning how to ensure my loses don't wipe me out haha. I have been experimenting on practice mode and getting a feel for the ladders and so forth but i'm still lacking some fundamental understanding of certain parts at this moment.

I'm a very habitual person and from a sporting back ground, and so the repetitive routine of going on daily and working at this is something i'm probably well built for in all honesty, and this is partially why I became concerned with longevity. Once I have a good foundation,, I will look at how to apply automation. Learning the skill myself first is my initial objective.