Straight Value bets - Pre play markets in main leagues around the world

[Nickse34]

Excellent thread this to demonstrate the amount of industry needed to eke out a small +EV.

One to bookmark to show those who can't understand why their random 'back-over-1.5-goals-and-trade-out-at-half-time-if-no-goals' is unlikely to bring long term profit.

Yes, not as easy as it may seem, quite a bit of work and brain power needed to scrap a few quid... Market mechanics are well engineered, little randomness if any, especially pre play. A game of skills..

[MrJoeBlack]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

[jamesedwards]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

How do you leverage this to identify trading opportunities?

[MrJoeBlack]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

How do you leverage this to identify trading opportunities?

It's a work in progress. I come from a school of Bayesian thinking so, rather than looking for something in an absolute sense, I am looking to determine things probabilistically. Although it may not appear so here I am actually typically taking a much longer viewpoint with outright markets however liquidity can be an issue as can only being paid once a year - plus there are very few markets offered outside of the BPL so it's tricky. Single events are much harder but I have found by evaluating them at scale I can reduce some of the volatility. All of which brings me to trying to say that in my experience just looking at this one game in isolation is pointless really. I am primarily interested in evaluating the extent to which my profiling was accurate.

But looking at this game I would then investigate the individual player identities and how they contribute to the relative strengths and weaknesses. This would then form a second round of trading when the line-ups are announced. I'm looking for value so although City are favoured here they are also favoured by the market - whereas you might find there are better opportunities in the other games I post.

Initial thoughts on this game -

I might play something like Fulham Under 0.5 goals @ circa 2.9 given that they struggle to generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences. However, I would also hedge with overs on the O/U 2.5 goals market.

(OR) Manchester City Most Corners

• City hold the ball high
• Fulham absorb deep in long phases
→ Natural corner inflation for the away side.

But you could give the same insights to 10 different people and they would approach it 10 different ways. For me, I am just working on making the insights as accurate as possible.