18:15 Kempton

[Iron]

Thanks.

Here's another thought though - the market can be both extremely accurate and extremely inaccurate at the same time.

Let's say you have 10 horses whose true odds are 5.0. If five of the horses start at 3.0, and the other five have BSPs of 7.0, overall the market is extremely accurate, but for each horse it's way off the mark.

It may be that over-reactions in one direction are counter-balanced by over-reactions in the other direction...

Jeff

Based on this: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets you are probably doing the right thing.
74.5

[74.5]

Thanks.

Here's another thought though - the market can be both extremely accurate and extremely inaccurate at the same time.

Let's say you have 10 horses whose true odds are 5.0. If five of the horses start at 3.0, and the other five have BSPs of 7.0, overall the market is extremely accurate, but for each horse it's way off the mark.

It may be that over-reactions in one direction are counter-balanced by over-reactions in the other direction...

Jeff

Based on this: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets you are probably doing the right thing.
74.5

It's the same problem as with trainers forgetting to train their horses.Which trainer has trained their horse and which hasn't?Which horse's odds are too high and which are too low?If you don't know the answers, you don't know the answers.If you did you can back or lay.If you don't it makes sense to trade.
74.5