18:15 Kempton

[74.5]

Ensnare - fav?? Get it Layed

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[74.5]

My apologies for the late call.What a joke - never even placed.

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[andyfuller]

It was the last leg of a £1 million betting coup:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... 88465/top/

[74.5]

Risking a £1 million betting coup on that donkey? Madness!!
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[74.5]

Will try and post 1 selection per day - but it will be just before the off.

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[Iron]

Perhaps the horse had surpassed his previous form in training, or maybe he hadn't been given sufficient training before his earlier runs...

And it's not unknown for a trainer to repeatedly forget to train a horse, and for that horse to win a race at a nice price on the occasion when he remembers to do so...

Jeff

Risking a £1 million betting coup on that donkey? Madness!!
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[74.5]

And it's not unknown for a trainer to repeatedly forget to train a horse, and for that horse to win a race at a nice price on the occasion when he remembers to do so...

Jeff

Are you suggesting that trainers deliberately don't train their horses?Why would they do this?What's the point?
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[Iron]

Are you suggesting that trainers deliberately don't train their horses?

Not all trainers, but I'm sure that some trainers behave dishonestly, particularly in the current economic climate.

Why would they do this?

Let's say you have a horse called The Fat Snail. For its first 3 races, its running style causes the commetators to make cruel jokes about its name.

It starts its forth race today at 66/1. But what the market doesn't realise is that the trainer has seen hidden potential in the horse. So he decided to train it properly for today's outing, having previously hardly trained it at all. Being a gambling man, our trainer puts a bit of money on the horse, and tells the jockey that he has high hopes for the horse today, whilst giving him a knowing look. The jockey also has a flutter, and decides to ride the horse with greater focus than he did previously, when he accidentally let the horse unseat him. Both jockey and trainer look as surprised and delighted as everyone else when your horse romps home...

Jeff

[74.5]

Let's say you have a horse called The Fat Snail. For its first 3 races, its running style causes the commetators to make cruel jokes about its name.

It starts its forth race today at 66/1. But what the market doesn't realise is that the trainer has seen hidden potential in the horse. So he decided to train it properly for today's outing, having previously hardly trained it at all. Jeff

How do you know that The Fat Snail was trained for today's race?
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[Iron]

Unless you have insider knowledge, you don't...

Owning a racehorse is a highly expensive business. In the words of Barney Curley:

"If you buy a horse, it'll cost you £20,000 and it costs £17,500 to keep them in training and you win peanuts."

There will be some people who can justify the expense on the grounds that they can boast to their mates that they own a share in a horse. And some people might think that they've stumbled upon a Class 6 horse that will one day win the John Smith Hurdle. However, the cynic in me wonders whether some people just want insider information, such as whether the horse is going to perform terribly today at odds on, or if it might just make all at 33/1...

Jeff

[steven1976]

Im sure there are a few at it all the time. Maybe its easier to make them lose a few races and lay them though or even just get off to a slow start. Come to think about it, I bet just about every struggling sportsman is at it. John Higgins was certainly willing to consider it so you would imagine a few lower paid sports people in lesser sports also consider it.

[Iron]

I bet it's even worse in greyhound racing.

To go to the time and expense of training a dog to win a race on a wet January evening, where the prize money 30 quid, you have to be either a die-hard enthusiast, or someone who's interested in exploiting the fact that he knows more about his dog than the market (regardless of whether he's acted dishonestly by doing stuff like giving his dog a big meal on the way to the track).

Jeff

[74.5]

Knowing all this isn't much use unless you know who is doing what and are able to take advantage of it.But at least we are out of the starting blocks in that we know that someone is up to something at some point.
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[Iron]

There may be ways of taking advantage - I have theories, but nothing I'd be willing to put money into. For example, I have a spreadsheet covering over 1,000 horses, which shows a 10% profit for a particular method. However, I won't be going live with that approach anytime soon. Whilst I think that the method has an edge, I'm also aware that lots of people (including Betfair themselves) are looking for edges, and as a result any that arise might not last for long.

An essay I once came across illustrates the point neatly:

'Suppose that the phenomenon unearthed by the original web site indicates that the strike rate of favourites competing in All-Weather races under 1 mile and ridden by lady jockeys is 40%. If a profit is to be made by backing such horses to win, then the odds need to be greater than 6/4 or 2.5 (exchange odds), neglecting any commission payable to the betting exchanges on winning bets.

Prior to this information being made generally available to all and sundry, the average odds of such horses was 3/1 or 4.0 (exchange odds). This provided backers with ample scope for profits.

After the information was made available to most of the known world, the odds of such horses dropped to an average of 6/4 or 2.5 (exchange odds). This meant that there was no profit margin left in such horses.'

From Statistics - Friend or Foe? at http://www.psychosshortlays.com/articles.htm

The above is why, after much soul searching, I've decided to focus my efforts on extracting money from the exchanges purely on trading (although I don't doubt that there are many people who can make a good living from straight backing and laying, and not necessarily by having insider knowledge).

Jeff

Knowing all this isn't much use unless you know who is doing what and are able to take advantage of it.

[74.5]

Based on this: http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets you are probably doing the right thing.
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