Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter

Relax and chat about anything not covered elsewhere.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Ferru123 wrote:But Freddy, how do you know these guys actually screwed up? Maybe seismology isn't an exact science. The fact that a single judge (who probably isn't a scientist) has found them guilty doesn't make them guilty in my book...

Jeff
You are accusing the judge of not being fully aware of the facts because he probably isn't a scientist and as such in your book he may have given an incorrect decision.

In your book they aren't guilty just because one judge found them guilty, how many need to find them guilty in order to satisfy you :?

Last time I checked it wasn't a requirement of a judge to be competent in the field they are judging on in order to give a verdict. That is not a requirement of their role.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

freddy wrote: but for someone to give guarantees there would not be earthquake in a earthquake zone :o ,
well that seems quite a risk to me,
They didn’t have to take on that risk and they could have walked away, but they didn’t.
AFAIK, they were merely employed to give their expert opinion, which they did.
freddy wrote:If an structural engineer visited a school and said the roof was safe and then it collapsed next day killing children then he would suffer a similar fait.
Nice, unemotive example! :)

Surely it would depend on whether there was something obvious that he missed, or if he did a diligent check, but what happened was a freak accident.

Jeff
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

andyfuller wrote: You are accusing the judge of not being fully aware of the facts because he probably isn't a scientist and as such in your book he may have given an incorrect decision.
I'm not sure that's what I said. I do think that there's something to be said for someone leading an inquiry into something to be an expert in the field where possible, however. If you have a leaky roof, you call a plumber, not an electrician! :)
andyfuller wrote:In your book they aren't guilty just because one judge found them guilty, how many need to find them guilty in order to satisfy you :?
When I was studying why markets are efficient, I once came across a theory that basically says 'If there is a 1 in 2 chance of one person being wrong, then mathematically the chances of two people both happening to be wrong about the same thing are less, and so on'. This is why, it is said, that if you or I guess how many beans there are in a jar, we will be way out, but if 10,000 people guess then some people theorise that the average of the guesses will probably be pretty accurate - See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds.

If one person makes a decision, that decision can be influenced, consciously or unconsciously, by his or her own desires and prejudices. For a jury to all get it wrong - assuming that there is no groupthink involved - is far less likely IMHO.
andyfuller wrote:Last time I checked it wasn't a requirement of a judge to be competent in the field they are judging on in order to give a verdict. That is not a requirement of their role.
Last time I checked it was in certain cases - I believe there is such a thing as a specialist judge. :)

Jeff
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

From what i understand a team of scientists and engineers were brought in to the area after some initial smaller seismic activity and asked to produce a report on the chances of a more devastating quake occurring.

Their findings incorrectly stated the numerous small earthquakes were releasing stress and thereby inhibiting the occurrence of a larger earthquake.

this was wrong and statistically the earlier quake's had actually increase the chances of a bigger quake dramatically , they went away from the statistics because they thought they knew better and got it abit wrong .

they were not on trail for failing to predict the earthquake which the media are trying to portray,
but simply for playing down the chances of a larger quake happening .

it all comes down to odds and probability again :D .
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

Last night there was an other earthquake..
http://www.agi.it/italy/news/2012102607 ... s_evacuees..
I Have found a very interesting recorded phone call about the 2009 earthquake...Unfortunaly is all in Italian...
http://inchieste.repubblica.it/it/repub ... ef=HRER2-1
The head of the civil protection ( close to Berlusconi) call the commissioner of the Abruzzo few days before the disaster. He Ordered her not to issue any warning of the swarm, even if under torture. Then he says that he is organizing a meeting with the leading experts of earthquakes and these experts were already informed about what to say and what not to say to the media ...We must have the media meeting to reassure the population ...There are no studies to about and none of these experts actually know the situation in Abruzzo but we absolutely need to send a message to the media and the experts presence will serve to this our purpose ....the message continues with more shocking revelations ...
7 days after this meeting and the media ensured, 309 people were killed....The experts realesed a statement on something they did not know about but something they have been told to state without studies on the area.. Thanks to this phone call, the sentence does not appear anymore shocking, but the heads of those who organized everything not yet been investigated ... this suggests that certain situations may also occur in other parts of the world (The IRAQ war and Valerie Plame story is an example of it), but in Italy all calls are recorded and there is always the risk that the truth will come out...
User avatar
CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

I hope you are ok, as well as your family.
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

No worries....the earthquake was miles away in the south of Italy...Thank you for asking.
CaerMyrddin wrote:I hope you are ok, as well as your family.
Post Reply

Return to “Chill Out Area”