Europa League 2013/14

[icarus121]

Peter

A comparison market would be most helpful ,if not any bother.

Thanks

[stevequal]

This is why I thought putting them up against a comparison market may be useful.

I just assumed you didn't want to open yourself upto "I just dumped load of money on 2.5 goals because you said it would win and it lost" types scenarios

[Euler]

That's true, hopefully we can educate everybody that visits the forum on how to use them!

[dmbusa]

I have used them as an aid to formulating what type of trade I would do in each match and found it very helpful

[cayenne turbo]

Was thinking of changing the way this data is presented. I could easily base it on something like 'chance of exceeding 2.5 goals'

Hi Peter,I think that would be very usefull,particularly for those of us that trade the goal markets. Thanks in advance.

[stevequal]

Peter, is it possible you can let us know what the average goal ratio was for the CL and Europa ratings you provided this week? Or at least let us know if there was much difference in the average between the two leagues.

I was applying the same strategy on the Europa as I was the CL and the results seem a bit out of alignment. Just curious to know if it was down to the baseline average.

[HowdoEd]

This is why I thought putting them up against a comparison market may be useful.

This would be very welcome.

Thanks in advance

Eddie

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this evening's matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: -

Red Bull Salzburg vs. Esbjerg - 124%
Tottenham vs. Anzhi Makhachkala - 124%
Dinamo Kiev vs. Rapid Vienna - 116%
Valencia vs. Kuban Krasnodar - 110%
Standard vs. Elfsborg - 110%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. APOEL - 110%
Thun vs. Genk - 108%
PAOK vs. Az Alkmaar - 108%
Betis vs. Rijeka - 108%
Lazio vs. Trabzonspor - 106%
Freiburg vs. Sevilla - 106%
Maccabi Haifa vs. Shakhter Karagandy - 106%
Maccabi Haifa vs. Shakhter Karagandy - 106%
PSV vs. Chernomorets Odesa - 106%
Sheriff Tiraspol vs. Tromso - 104%
St Gallen vs. Swansea - 102%
Fiorentina vs. Dnipro - 102%
Dinamo Zagreb vs. Ludogorets - 102%
NK Maribor vs. Wigan - 102%
Estoril vs. Slovan Liberec - 98%
Pandurii vs. Pacos Ferreira - 98%
Apollon L. vs. Legia Warsaw - 98%
Zulte-Waregem vs. Rubin Kazan - 96%
Guimaraes vs. Lyon - 94%

I have priced in 66 goals this evening.

[stevequal]

Cheers Peter.

Steve.

[Euler]

Was playing with the metrics today and modelling those matches there will be, on average, six minutes difference between the expected earliest and latest first goal. Those are the margins you are playing with.

[stevequal]

Was playing with the metrics today and modelling those matches there will be, on average, six minutes difference between the expected earliest and latest first goal. Those are the margins you are playing with.

You mean 6 minutes difference on average between the following fixtures:

Guimaraes vs. Lyon - 94%
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Esbjerg - 124%

?

[stevequal]

Again quite a lacklustre evening again for goals, although the Europa is never exactly a goal fest. It's possible that teams just either have no real incentive to get goals or they play very tight to "get a result".

Backing nil-nil on the low rated games, seems to offer some decent value from what I've seen this year.

[Euler]

Last 32 draw

Dnipro v Tottenham
Real Betis v Rubin Kazan
Swansea v Napoli
Juventus v Trabzonspor
Maribor v Sevilla
Viktoria Plzen v Shakhtar Donetsk
Chornomorets v Lyon
Lazio v Ludogorets
Esbjerg v Fiorentina
Ajax v FC Salzburg
Maccabi Tel-Aviv v Basle
Porto v Eintracht Frankfurt
Anzhi v Genk
Dynamo Kiev v Valencia
PAOK v Benfica
Slovan Liberec v AZ Alkmaar

Games will be played on 20 and 27 February.

Last 16

Slovan Liberec /AZ Alkmaar v Anzhi/Genk
Lazio/Ludogorets v Dynamo Kiev/Valencia
Porto/Eintracht Frankfurt v Swansea/Napoli
Chornomorets/Lyon v Viktoria Plzen/Shakhtar Donetsk
Maribor/Sevilla v Real Betis/Rubin Kazan
Dnipro/Tottenham v PAOK/Benfica
Maccabi Tel-Aviv/Basle v Ajax/FC Salzburg
Juventus/Trabzonspor v Esbjerg/Fiorentina

Ties are on 13 and 20 March

[Euler]

Pre off drift on Genk and Valencia is quite amazing to see.

[marko236]

Pre off drift on Genk and Valencia is quite amazing to see.

Sure was on the Genk game, i was chasing a trade from odds of 2.10 thought it would come down but it just kept going up.