Europa League 2013/14

[Euler]

Thought it was worth popping up a thread for this season as the qualifiers get underway.

[teamlefty]

Great! Watching Swans v Petrolul right now and Tottenham v Dinamo earlier. I think this game is so one-sided, no quality chances so far on petrolul.

[teamlefty]

quite satisfied with the odds on these matches, btw. i got Spurs -1.25 @ 2.07 at 30 quid. then placed 20 on Swansea @ -1.25 @ 1.82 and another 10 on over 2.5. easy win and lucky day for me. did you bet on those matches, too?

[Euler]

Full Europa League draw:

Group A: Valencia, Swansea, Kuban Krasnodar, St Gallen.
Group B: PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb, Chornomorets Odesa, Ludogorets Razgrad.
Group C: Standard Liege, Salzburg, Elfsborg, Esbjerg.
Group D: Rubin Kazan, Wigan, Maribor, Zulte Waregem.
Group E: Fiorentina, Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk, Pacos Ferreira, Pandurii Targu Jiu.
Group F: Bordeaux, APOEL, Eintracht, Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Group G: Dynamo Kiev, Genk, Rapid Vienna, Thun.
Group H: Sevilla, Freiburg, Estoril, Slovan Liberec.
Group I: Lyon, Real Betis, Guimaraes, Rijeka.
Group J: Lazio, Trabzonspor, Legia Warsaw, Apollon Limassol.
Group K: Tottenham, Anzhi Makhachkala, Sheriff, Tromso.
Group L: AZ Alkmaar, PAOK Thessaloniki, Maccabi Haifa, Shakhter Karagandy.

[Euler]

Interested to see how Wigan get on tonight. I remember Southampton qualifying for UEFA cup a few years ago and getting spanked by sporting lisbon.

[Euler]

Swansea making mincemeat of Valencia this evening.

[Euler]

I've priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.

Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol - 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy - 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec - 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. - 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk - 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg - 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev - 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor - 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK - 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon - 95%
Guimaraes vs. Betis - 93%
Tromso vs. Anzhi Makhachkala - 92%

[Wolf]

Cheers for sharing your ratings, Euler. They've helped me devise strategies for football trades, which have worked well the past few nights.

[Euler]

Goals ratings for this evening's matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: -

Sevilla vs. Estoril - 116%
Az Alkmaar vs. Maccabi Haifa - 114%
Elfsborg vs. Red Bull Salzburg - 112%
Shakhter Karagandy vs. PAOK - 110%
Rapid Vienna vs. Thun - 108%
Tromso vs. Tottenham - 106%
Esbjerg vs. Standard - 106%
Dnipro vs. Pandurii - 104%
Genk vs. Dinamo Kiev - 104%
Wigan vs. Zulte-Waregem - 104%
Slovan Liberec vs. Freiburg - 102%
Rubin Kazan vs. NK Maribor - 102%
Trabzonspor vs. Apollon L. - 100%
Kuban Krasnodar vs. St Gallen - 100%
Swansea vs. Valencia - 100%
Ludogorets vs. PSV - 100%
Rijeka vs. Guimaraes - 98%
Bordeaux vs. Eintracht Frankfurt - 98%
APOEL vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv - 98%
Pacos Ferreira vs. Fiorentina - 98%
Legia Warsaw vs. Lazio - 96%
Lyon vs. Betis - 92%
Chernomorets Odesa vs. Dinamo Zagreb - 92%
Anzhi Makhachkala vs. Sheriff Tiraspol - 86%

I have priced in 64 goals this evening.

[Euler]

Was thinking of changing the way this data is presented. I could easily base it on something like 'chance of exceeding 2.5 goals'

[stevequal]

I am happy with the way you've been doing it.

I am just curious as to what you base the avergae number of goals to be and is it the same for the Champions and Europa Leagues?

[Euler]

No I vary it. I have the long term averages for each competition, but may adjust it up or down. I've been a little under on the champions league so far this year so I'm forming an opinion that its getting less competitive in the group stages.

I also work in fractions of a goal as that can make a bit of difference.

[stevequal]

If you say Team A v Team B is 100% (like you sometimes do), that means it's exactly spot on the average number of goals. But unless I know the average, it's difficult to put them into practice. Is that fair? Although, I can use your previous predictions to estimate the average, but your saying it changes per week?

I've been recording your predictions and recording the odds for different markets in attempt to see how I can use your predictions and also try and create my own model.

Do you do the same for Premier league, Championship? From what I've seen so far the predictions and accuracy are incredibly powerful.

Is the number of goals seen yesterday caused by it being the later stages of the group stages.

[Euler]

Do you do the same for Premier league, Championship? From what I've seen so far the predictions and accuracy are incredibly powerful.

Is the number of goals seen yesterday caused by it being the later stages of the group stages.

I tend to be best at domestic football as I have immense amounts of data on that. The latter stages of the ECL and so on do contain distortions, but they are harder to model. So with data like last night I have to revisit things and see if I can put some new assumptions in the model.

[Euler]

If you say Team A v Team B is 100% (like you sometimes do), that means it's exactly spot on the average number of goals. But unless I know the average, it's difficult to put them into practice. Is that fair?

This is why I thought putting them up against a comparison market may be useful.