How long before you give it all up?

[Tonto]

HH2010

You seem like the ideal trader.You do your own research using historic data and, only then,do you start trading. Sensible. Very sensible.

Only one problem.It hasn't been successful and, I have to admit,I'm somewhat puzzled.If you have done your research and found a successful approach,why does it not remain successful once you start using it?

In an earlier post,you wrote about having used trend trading, swing trading and scalping.You also wrote about changing strategies once a strategy starts losing.

All systems/strategies/methods go through losing periods. That's just their nature.Did your research not indicate just how bad things got when it turned mean and ugly or did you not consider this aspect? If they are as good and wholesome as your research suggests,they will bounce back,recoup losses and move on up. Therefore, swapping and changing between methods/ strategies/systems when one turns mean and ugly may not be the most sensible action to take.

I also think that automation is the way forward.That way,you can have a full-time job or spend quality time with your family and still earn a few sheckels trading.Watching a screen all day may be fine,initially,in order to learn about trading and devising a profitable system/strategy/method, but surely it can't be a long term option?

I think that in your position,I'd take another look at the research and take a long,hard look at what happened in the past when the system really turned mean and ugly.That will enable you to devise a staking plan for the future which will allow the system to survive during such times.

I'd also analyse your past trades to determine what went wrong and why.That will help to put corrective action in place.

That little lot should allow you to devise a strategy/method/ system and an appropriate staking plan for the future.

Would I trust it?

Nope, so I'd test it until such time as I did.

At that point,I'd automate it but keep a close eye on it until I was satisfied that the automation was doing what it should do.

At that point,although you would have a profitable system,I'd start to look for ways to improve the performance of the system through incremental change.I'd observe, analyse, implement ONE change,test and then go live.I'd then repeat this process until I'd run out of ideas.

I'd then look to do something useful with my life.

[hh2010]

Thanks all for the replies the automation route sounds interesting.

Tonto, My problem is like you said I change my strategy too much. More fine tune it than change but then that leads me away from where I originally started by me trying to have it too perfect if you know what I mean. When I trade before the money arrives in profitable but then I see all the others who insist that trading in the last few minutes is the key and before this it's really gambling then I try fitting my strategy into that time frame and end up with losses. I think I'll just stay away from that time period I don't feel comfortable there most races. There's the odd one or 2 a day which I can read easily at that time but that's it most days.

In regards to automation. I'd still need to select my entry point at that time on a certain selectionand wouldn't know the selection until then so how could it be fully automated I don't understand?

For example, if I decided that at 15 mins pre race I thought a horse was going to drift, I'd place my lay bet and away we go. I wouldn't know until this point which horse I was going to lay. I'd have to be around to place this bet, am I missing something here ?

Cheers
Steven

[Tonto]

HH210

I know a number of people who,when their systems hit a sticky spot,either change systems/methods or add yet another filter.All of them lose money.My feeling is swapping and changing systems is lethal.

When a system/method is developed,its operability has to be part of the requirements, surely? So,if we require a system/method which is capable of being automated,we must reject any systems/ methods which cannot be automated.Otherwise,we end up with the tail wagging the dog.

[Alpha322]

Hi Marko

Thanks for the reply. It's not as easy as that mate it's a long story. I've always had my own businesses so it's not the pressure that's the problem it's the fact at the time I'm wasting. It's been years now and I'm not a dull bloke it just seems so random at times, maybe I'm trading too many races.
If I can trade before all the maddness in the last few minutes then I can make it work as thats when my best results have come, just want to see if there are others who do it.

I've tried trend trading, swing trading and am useless at scalping but it's going with the trend I'm easiest with

I make £66.67 a day thats enough, and i get on with other things add that up over 30 days, that pays my bills etc, my Salary builds as it likes. Pays to have a shift work Job

[marko236]

Hi Marko

Thanks for the reply. It's not as easy as that mate it's a long story. I've always had my own businesses so it's not the pressure that's the problem it's the fact at the time I'm wasting. It's been years now and I'm not a dull bloke it just seems so random at times, maybe I'm trading too many races.
If I can trade before all the maddness in the last few minutes then I can make it work as thats when my best results have come, just want to see if there are others who do it.

I've tried trend trading, swing trading and am useless at scalping but it's going with the trend I'm easiest with

I make £66.67 a day thats enough, and i get on with other things add that up over 30 days, that pays my bills etc, my Salary builds as it likes. Pays to have a shift work Job

If you can trade 20 markets a day £66 equals only an average of just over £3 profit per market which doesn't look like much, but over 30 days thats 2k which is a great sum if your doing it along with an other job.

[hh2010]

U guys who are making money regularly, do you trade in the last few minutes before the race begins?

Tonto, is it the same with your automation, is that last few minutes too?


Thanks
Steven

[xitian]

Hi Steven,

There are definitely opportunities to be had 20 mins or even more before the off, particularly if you are using automation.

I trade using automation and some of my strategies begin tracking the markets from early in the morning, hours before the off.

I've never really investigated how much value I'm getting more than 10 mins before the off vs in the last 10 mins, but I'm pretty sure that a lot of my profit comes from early on. At the same time I'm sure other people know how to profit from the final minutes as well as in-play.

So in conclusion, I think there's opportunities to be found all over the place and at all time frames. However for early trading, automation is definitely helpful for tracking all the races at once as opposed to manually monitoring/trading every race, which isn't very realistic.

[Alpha322]

Hi Marko

I make £66.67 a day thats enough, and i get on with other things add that up over 30 days, that pays my bills etc, my Salary builds as it likes. Pays to have a shift work Job

If you can trade 20 markets a day £66 equals only an average of just over £3 profit per market which doesn't look like much, but over 30 days thats 2k which is a great sum if your doing it along with an other job.

No i average about upto £166.00 but the loses even it out to £66.00 am playing £6 a tick

[Tonto]

HH2010

Nope but I'd rather not say any more.